Round 4-9 Preparation Threads

[Zawadx]

Vanilla TTW study (20k games vs a nonwinning AI)

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55k 55k 55s 55s 576 576 622 622 622 622 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 744 745 745 745 747 747 747 747 747 81q 81q 81q 8pl

Average TTW: 8.0804

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55k 55s 55s 576 622 622 622 622 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 744 745 745 745 747 747 747 747 747 81q 81q 81q 8pl

Average TTW: 8.03872 (50k tests)
vs Devtosis: 8.806936805477607

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55k 55k 55s 55s 576 622 622 622 622 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 744 745 745 745 747 747 747 747 747 81q 81q 81q 8pl

Average TTW: 8.0624 (50k tests)
vs Devtosis: 8.879191548001838

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55k 55s 55s 622 622 622 622 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 744 745 745 745 747 747 747 747 747 81q 81q 81q 8pl

Average TTW: 8.07405

Faster fractal = better TTW, but 3 gravy sources is important to hit turn 2 Guard.
3 gravy sources seems like the best vs Devtosis AI too. Ofco AI doesn't mito Devs, but I still think TTW is a good metric on which is better. Woo, that's all the finalizing needed! ^^

[Zawadx]

25	Gen. Zawadx	CCCombobreaker
20	Jenkar	Gen. Zso_Zso
1	UndeadSpider1990	Gen. Physsion
17	bjessee	Luminous
22	sumtwig07	Gen. Vangelios

Here's to a great round!

[Zawadx]

Monofire Tinker vs Dim Fractix: 6-9 If they can get fractix out early we're dead. CCing phoenixes is an option, but after a certain time they can just stomp by fractalling our dragons.
Monofire Tinker vs Denial Immo: 7-3 Decent due to immo's inconsistencies.

[Zawadx]

10	Gen. Zawadx	mrpaper
4	Jenkar	Discord
20	UndeadSpider1990	andretimpa
21	bjessee	mathman101
5	sumtwig07	RavingRabbid

If you test, try to track which games you were first and which was on the card. Unless a matchup is really lopsided.

[Zawadx]

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4vj 4vj 4vj 4vj 4vj 4vj 595 5i7 5i7 5i7 61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 61r 61r 61r 61r 7tb 7tb 80l 80l 80l 80l 80l 8pu

vs

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4vc 4vc 50u 50u 50u 50u 50u 50u 50u 50u 50u 61r 61r 61r 61r 61t 61t 61t 624 624 624 6ts 6tv 6tv 6tv 6tv 6tv 6ve 6ve 6ve 8pu

9-1, it's really lopsided against their PUGons. Theirs is not well balanced, let's see how a streamlined build functions.

Yeah, no dims doesn't work either - 5-0 vs that version.

vs Grabbow: 1-0 going first, 0-4 going second. It's roughly a turn too slow.


Vs Air dark domin
Old version: 5-5, 3-4 goinf first and 2-1 going second
+2 Explosion, -2 PU: 0-7 going first, 4-1 going second

Gen version:

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4vj 4vj 4vj 4vj 4vj 4vj 5ur 5ur 61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 622 77l 7dm 7dm 7gn 7gn 7gn 80l 80l 80l 80l 80l 80l 8pu

3-7. 1-5 going first, 2-2 going second. 5 of those losses were very close, but I'd say that this isn't gonna cut it.

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61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 61q 61q 61q 61q 61q 61q 622 622 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 808 80g 80g 80g 80g 80g 80g 8pu

vs SW FFQ: 6-4, 3-2 on both going first and second.
vs. Good Dark Domin: 5-1 going first, 1-3 going second.
vs Wings FFQ: Hardcounter

I strongly expect Dark Domin, so will try to optimize vs that.

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55k 55k 55s 576 622 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 745 745 747 747 747 747 80i 80i 80i 8pl

vs DBH: 5-6, 3-3 going first and 2-3 going second. Very, VERY iffy.

[Zawadx]

Analysis! After ages!

Spoiler for Entropy:

Entropy's vault is in a bad place right now. It's sad we didn't send in discards vs them, as we could target their dragons and shut them down for good. Oh well. They have wings salvage which I believe will be put to use, and fire salvage will be used for more creatures.
vs Air, they have a clear choice of SoP Tinker due to enhanced cc. Noizy does have few nymphs, but SoP should also be strong vs air's mono.
vs Fire they'll prolly go with wings. Fire's last immo vs them had no pc and 3 minor phoenix, so another immo like that could be an easy victory. Considering ian's easy attitude, I doubt they'll think farther than this.
vs Darkness and Aether, that leaves Grabbow and PUGons (or maybe some vault barf, CP Psions with no pu?). We're less stally so we're less likely to face PUGons, but it's still a possibility.

Spoiler for Life:

Life's vault should be butchered right now, with their only decent available deck being FFQ/Sofree. They should be able to save enough for a weak dark domin, though the exact build is up in the air. I expect FFQ will go vs Fire because of their strength vs Fire's cc, and dark domin vs us.

[Zawadx]

Air dark domin merits a seperate post.

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61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 61u 61u 625 7gn 7gn 7gn 80g 80g 80g 80g 80l 80l 80l 80l 80l 8pp

Going first: 1-4. Not happening, unless we can get pretty luck. Vagger basically autoloses this one for us.

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4vj 4vj 4vj 4vj 61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 622 6u5 6u5 6u5 747 77l 7gn 7gn 80l 80l 80l 80l 80l 80l 8pj

Disco isn't the answer
Going first: 2-2
Second: 1-6, one loss to RNG

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5op 5op 5op 61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 622 622 622 63a 63a 63a 63a 808 808 808 808 80l 80l 80l 80l 80l 80l 81q 81q 8pr

Going first: 2-3
Going second: 3-5

Flashy, but too slow. Might manage 50-50 with some better balancing.

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5op 5op 5op 61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 622 622 622 63a 63a 808 808 808 808 80l 80l 80l 80l 80l 80l 81q 81q 8pr

Going first: 1-5
Going second: 0-4

Looks like it was all variance.

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61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 622 622 622 622 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 7k2 7k2 7km 7km 808 80l 80l 80l 80l 80l 80l 81q 8pq

2-, 1-4 both going first and second. None of the wins required light cards to be played.

Vs Air dark domin
Old version: 5-5, 3-4 goinf first and 2-1 going second
+2 Explosion, -2 PU: 0-7 going first, 4-1 going second

Gen version:

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4vj 4vj 4vj 4vj 4vj 4vj 5ur 5ur 61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 622 77l 7dm 7dm 7gn 7gn 7gn 80l 80l 80l 80l 80l 80l 8pu

3-7. 1-5 going first, 2-2 going second. 5 of those losses were very close, but I'd say that this isn't gonna cut it.

Going first: 2-3
Going second: 4-1

I think this is our best shot.