War # 14 - Predictions

[andretimpa]

After some consoderation I think it will be this

[Aves]

Who am I, to defy the consensus?

[Naii_the_Baf]

 

[dawn to dusk]

Wow, what a rebel

[PlayerOa]

For the uneducated:

[2020-10-24 23:34:02] PlayerOa:

[Wyand]

For the uneducated:

[2020-10-24 23:34:02] PlayerOa:

Oa, we are all educated here, delete this post.

[serprex]

So here's some more OT for this thread:

Spoiler for winrate to bo5 winrate mapping:

Code: [Select]

0 0.0
1 0.0
2 0.02
3 0.01
4 0.11
5 0.1
6 0.25
7 0.31
8 0.41
9 0.72
10 0.91
11 1.12
12 1.32
13 1.8
14 2.3
15 2.2
16 3.05
17 3.75
18 3.85
19 5.11
20 5.46
21 6.25
22 7.43
23 8.52
24 9.49
25 10.24
26 11.22
27 12.06
28 13.82
29 15.36
30 16.35
31 18.24
32 19.62
33 20.28
34 21.96
35 23.5
36 25.17
37 26.75
38 28.99
39 30.93
40 31.62
41 33.67
42 35.39
43 37.11
44 38.88
45 39.76
46 43.29
47 43.86
48 45.88
49 48.22
50 49.72
51 51.29
52 53.96
53 56.36
54 56.66
55 59.76
56 61.05
57 62.4
58 64.22
59 66.21
60 68.35
61 69.22
62 71.43
63 73.59
64 75.15
65 76.75
66 77.98
67 80.14
68 81.32
69 82.73
70 83.55
71 85.16
72 86.29
73 87.86
74 88.74
75 89.77
76 90.15
77 91.24
78 92.72
79 93.34
80 94.1
81 94.87
82 95.54
83 96.26
84 96.58
85 97.41
86 97.47
87 98.07
88 98.7
89 98.83
90 99.05
91 99.41
92 99.62
93 99.65
94 99.84
95 99.88
96 99.99
97 99.98
98 100.0
99 100.0
100 100.0


Spoiler for code:

Code: [Select]

from random import random

for x in range(101):
        wr = x / 100
        wins = 0
        for i in range(10000):
                n = 0
                for g in range(5):
                        n += random() < wr
                        if n == 3:
                                wins += 1
                                break
        print(x, wins/100)


So when you're QQing over losing a 70% winrate matchup, just know that was really an 83% winrate matchup (ofc this gets messed around a little by misplays being more common in g1, but alas)

[InsignificantWeeaboo]

?	?	?	?	?	?	?	✓

[dawn to dusk]

Scripted???

[PlayerOa]

4th-7th all went out the same round

ez

[InsignificantWeeaboo]

4th-7th all went out the same round

ez

yeah but not the same order tho