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Offline hainkarga

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Re: War #11 - Round 9 https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=65503.msg1272518#msg1272518
« Reply #12 on: December 15, 2017, 01:34:18 am »
I already calculated the mixed strategy. #BetterThanMIT

It really shouldn't be too hard for a computer though. Maybe the app you found was just not made with these parameters in mind.

http://web.mit.edu/lhoang/www/GameSolver.html

I entered parameters and ran, said it can't solve that big of a matrix.
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Offline hainkarga

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Re: War #11 - Round 9 https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=65503.msg1272519#msg1272519
« Reply #13 on: December 15, 2017, 01:52:07 am »
I entered the values on a calculator on university of california, this is a solution.



http://www.math.ucla.edu/~tom/gamesolve.html

This says P1 should mix R/D, P/D, S/D with emphasis on P/D and P2 should mix R/D and S/D equally.
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Offline Spielkind

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Re: War #11 - Round 9 https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=65503.msg1272531#msg1272531
« Reply #14 on: December 15, 2017, 03:21:00 pm »
LOL im sure you guys have enough time for things like this... I Guess we will role 4d6. Math this!  8-)
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Offline ZawadxTopic starter

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Re: War #11 - Round 9 https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=65503.msg1272532#msg1272532
« Reply #15 on: December 15, 2017, 03:28:43 pm »
LOL im sure you guys have enough time for things like this... I Guess we will role 4d6. Math this!  8-)

that would make you have a bad expected value versus certain mixed strategies, very bad. #mathed
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Offline kaempfer13

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Re: War #11 - Round 9 https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=65503.msg1272535#msg1272535
« Reply #16 on: December 15, 2017, 04:45:46 pm »
I take it there are no extra matches again?
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Offline ZawadxTopic starter

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Re: War #11 - Round 9 https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=65503.msg1272536#msg1272536
« Reply #17 on: December 15, 2017, 05:16:30 pm »
I take it there are no extra matches again?

Huh... I'd forgotten those were a thing...

No extra matches.
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Offline ZawadxTopic starter

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Re: War #11 - Round 9 https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=65503.msg1272602#msg1272602
« Reply #18 on: December 17, 2017, 01:55:04 pm »
The only extra ups won was Aether theonlyrealbeef vs Life Gen. Mr. Muffin, + 2 upgrades for Aether (Paper vs Rock Dynamite).

All other matches was double dynamite. Death went Paper for all, Water went scissor and every other match was rock.
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Offline hainkarga

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Re: War #11 - Round 9 https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=65503.msg1272606#msg1272606
« Reply #19 on: December 17, 2017, 02:41:34 pm »
The only extra ups won was Aether theonlyrealbeef vs Life Gen. Mr. Muffin, + 2 upgrades for Aether (Paper vs Rock Dynamite).

All other matches was double dynamite. Death went Paper for all, Water went scissor and every other match was rock.

This turned out just like I wrote on team chat.

  • I was sure most would go for dynamite (except some "Paper no dynamite")
  • Rock/Dyna would tempt a lot of people.
  • Some could go for "Paper without Dyna" to fish those Rock/Dyna teams.
  • Some could predict that and go for Paper/Dyna to beat those Paper people while being safe against Rock/Dyna.
  • There was a (little) chance another one could think like I did and be more risk loving and go for "Scissors without dyna" to be able to catch Paper/Dyna counters.

So we would face:
A lot of Rock/Dyna, some Paper/No Dyna, some Paper/Dyna, very low chance 1-2 Scissors/No Dyna. I didn't expect anything else.

As I didn't know who would go for which option, and we didn't like high risk, the best choice was going for Scissors/Dynamite to be safe from any other dynamite and to be able to fish those "Paper no dynamite" and risk loving "Scissors no dynamite" people, otherwise we would go draw. 

Why scissors/dyna and not paper/dyna?
(Out of realistic outcomes) there was no real good reason to go for Paper/Dynamite (like death did) when you can go Scissors/Dynamite instead. Paper/Dynamite doesn't beat Rock/Dynamite. (Out of realistic outcomes) It just beats "Paper without dynamite" which is already covered by "Scissors/Dynamite" too. "Scissors Dynamite" is only beaten by "Rock without Dynamite" which is possibly the worst, riskiest realistic option for everyone so we were safest with the most fortified option. Also, we would get FOUR instead of two upgrades. (Paper/Dyna catches a Paper/No Dyna=2 ups, Scissors/Dyna catches a Paper/No Dyna=4 ups)

Edit: Rock/Dyna was realistically farce. No sane person would go with a choice that would lose against the most rewarding Rock/Dyna option. So I wouldn't expect to win anything if we chose Rock/Dyna. The war was between choosing Paper/no dyna (predator) and  those that can beat paper/no dyna (hunters) really.
« Last Edit: December 17, 2017, 05:22:12 pm by hainkarga »
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Offline TheonlyrealBeef

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Re: War #11 - Round 9 https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=65503.msg1272616#msg1272616
« Reply #20 on: December 17, 2017, 07:31:46 pm »
The only extra ups won was Aether TheonlyrealBeef vs Life Gen. Mr Muffin, + 2 upgrades for Aether (Paper vs Rock Dynamite).

All other matches was double dynamite. Death went Paper for all, Water went scissor and every other match was rock.
The EC did not make me very happy, at first, but this is plain funny.

The upgrades are probably not even going to matter, but to be the only one without dynamite and win upgrades because of it is just... :silly:

 

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