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Offline CCCombobreakerTopic starter

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8th Trials - Betting https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=55485.msg1152034#msg1152034
« on: August 20, 2014, 06:00:13 am »

Time's up for betting

With two sensational upsets in the final hour of Phase 4, the bet standings got all shaken up!  After a perfect 10-0 start, Regyptic fell to 4th.

Ultimately Master Gambler RootRanger went 11-1 (or 11-0 as he says :life is not an element) and takes 1st place. 
RootRanger will be awarded 10k :electrum.
Also correctly predicting Captain_Scibra and Vangelios pulled Krzysiekxd into 2nd place at the buzzer. 
Krzysiekxd will be awarded 2k :electrum.




Please answer each question; make sure you spell your user name correctly.
You can send in as many bets as you like, but for only the last will be kept.
The betting is weighted, so betting on an underdog has a greater payout than betting on a favorite. 
This scaling is determined by the upgrade advantage and is also affected by percent of the vote each player receives. 
In the event of a tie in the final standings, the tied players will need to arrange with a TrO to have an official roll-off in EtG chat.

Happy betting!





Why just bet on who will win when you can also bet on how people are betting?

So I additionally wanted to see if people can guess which element will be the following:


The Close Call
  • (match-up with the most evenly distributed bets)
:fire with 28-22 in favor of glennfoo is the closest matchup in the bets.
:life was a close second with 29-21 in favor of dawn_to_dusk

The Obvious One
  • (the person with the most bets (or the least bets) <- will be the same match-up either way)
:light with 43-7 means the gamblers think Jen-i is the biggest favorite, and Zso_Zso is the biggest underdog.
:aether was a close second with 42-8 in favor of deuce22

These Odds Seem Right
  • (the match-up where gamblers bets closest approximate the initial odds)
:fire with 28-22 is the also the closest bet to vote approximation, with a -1.14% vote difference, meaning gamblers favor Vangelios ever so slightly more than the upgrade odds.
:life was also second in this category with a 1.33% difference, with the gamblers giving dawn_to_dusk a very small edge over the upgrade odds.

The Bookie is Nuts
  • (the match-up with the biggest difference between the bets and the initial odds)
:darkness with even 20-20 upgrades still had 41-9 bets in favor of defending Master Odii Odsen.  That is a difference of 32.00% between the even upgrade odds and the gamblers' bets.
:light came in second here with 24-18 upgrades but 43-7 bets in favor of Jen-i.  That is a difference of 28.86% between the upgrade odds and the gamblers' bets.

The Not-So-Dark Horse
  • (the initial underdog who receives the most bets)
:air where afdarenty was the only underdog to receive more bets that the favorite, 33-17. 
:fire came in second here, as Vangelios, with 22 bets, was the only other underdog who the gamblers liked better than the odds (although he remains the underdog)

Overall the gamblers seem to paint a pretty clear picture of who they like best.  If we treat afdarenty like the favorite in his matchup (despite being down 2 upgrades), the favorites received 72.50% of the bets (36-14 on average) despite only having 57.26% of the upgrades (23-17 on average).  So a lot of those payouts are pretty stacked, and because a lot of people picked mostly the favorites, picking the right upsets looks like the key to victory.
« Last Edit: September 05, 2014, 12:12:51 am by CCCombobreaker »
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Offline rob77dp

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Re: 8th Trials - Betting https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=55485.msg1152102#msg1152102
« Reply #1 on: August 20, 2014, 04:10:49 pm »
Bets placed!  I was hoping selective betting would be allowed (i.e. - not required to vote on all finals' battles) but this is probably the most feasible given the circumstances.
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Offline jarozaoz

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Re: 8th Trials - Betting https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=55485.msg1152103#msg1152103
« Reply #2 on: August 20, 2014, 04:15:26 pm »
Bets placed too. I'm extremely curious, who will win. ^^
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Offline Calambar

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Re: 8th Trials - Betting https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=55485.msg1152109#msg1152109
« Reply #3 on: August 20, 2014, 04:28:11 pm »
Done. Following :)
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Offline dark ripper

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Re: 8th Trials - Betting https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=55485.msg1152118#msg1152118
« Reply #4 on: August 20, 2014, 04:46:22 pm »
Done. Some great duels are going to happen!
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Offline DANIEELA

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Re: 8th Trials - Betting https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=55485.msg1152127#msg1152127
« Reply #5 on: August 20, 2014, 05:40:36 pm »
Done!
Probably the only one who bets on me! :'(
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Offline RootRanger

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Re: 8th Trials - Betting https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=55485.msg1152131#msg1152131
« Reply #6 on: August 20, 2014, 06:17:09 pm »
I love the pre-betting odds. Now let's just hope the top two players don't make the exact same bets ^_^
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Offline iancudorinmarian

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Re: 8th Trials - Betting https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=55485.msg1152132#msg1152132
« Reply #7 on: August 20, 2014, 06:19:54 pm »
Go STANDIN!

Offline CCCombobreakerTopic starter

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Re: 8th Trials - Betting https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=55485.msg1152143#msg1152143
« Reply #8 on: August 20, 2014, 08:38:34 pm »
Updated the first post with a fun "minigame/metagame"!  Check it out and post your answers below!
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Re: 8th Trials - Betting https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=55485.msg1152146#msg1152146
« Reply #9 on: August 20, 2014, 08:50:28 pm »
Done!
Probably the only one who bets on me! :'(

I betted almost everywhere on the underdog, so you're at 2. ^^
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Offline Zso_Zso

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Re: 8th Trials - Betting https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=55485.msg1152147#msg1152147
« Reply #10 on: August 20, 2014, 09:04:38 pm »
Bets are in, as for the minigame:

Spoiler for Hidden:
The Close Call :death rob77dp vs Fippe94
    (match-up with the most evenly distributed bets)

The Obvious One     :aether deuce22 vs DANIEELA
    (the person with the most bets (or the least bets) <- will be the same match-up either way)

These Odds Seem Right  :death rob77dp vs Fippe94
    (the match-up where gamblers bets closest approximate the initial odds)

The Bookie is Nuts  :light Jen-i vs Zso_Zso
    (the match-up with the biggest difference between the bets and the initial odds)

The Not-So-Dark Horse   :air afdarenty
    (the initial underdog who receives the most bets)
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Offline rob77dp

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Re: 8th Trials - Betting https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=55485.msg1152152#msg1152152
« Reply #11 on: August 20, 2014, 09:28:20 pm »
Spoiler for rob77dp bets on the bets:
The Close Call
  • (match-up with the most evenly distributed bets)
  • :life - d2d v. math
The Obvious One
  • (the person with the most bets (or the least bets) <- will be the same match-up either way)
  • :aether - deuce
These Odds Seem Right
  • (the match-up where gamblers bets closest approximate the initial odds)
  • :entropy - Cal v. rippy
The Bookie is Nuts
  • (the match-up with the biggest difference between the bets and the initial odds)
  • :water - dd v. 'smith
The Not-So-Dark Horse
  • (the initial underdog who receives the most bets)
  • AfdaORvange... :fire - Vange

Edit:  Commentary - interestingly, I have managed to not make any selections similar to Zso on the bets-on-the-bets.  :)
Edit2: D'oh... yes, Zso, except for "The Obvious One" which I neglected to see was the same as yours.   ?_?
« Last Edit: August 20, 2014, 09:47:45 pm by rob77dp »
Death War #12/TBD TTG Brawl #6/1st Death War #10/9th GP Brawl #5/6th Death War #9/9th MoL Brawl #4/3rd Water War #8/7th DDD Brawl #3/3rd*Death War #7/5th*Death War #6/11th

 

anything
blarg: