(Darkness Merc) Sera 3 - 0 Blacksmith (Earth General)

[Sera]

GGs!

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4vj 4vj 4vj 4vj 4vj 4vj 5rp 5rp 5rp 5rp 5rp 5rp 5um 5um 5um 5um 5um 5um 5v0 5v0 5v0 5v0 7hi 7hi 7hi 7hi 7t7 7t7 7tb 7tb 8pt

Hard counter, and I had good draws all three games.

[Blacksmith]

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594 594 594 594 594 594 5aa 5aa 5aa 5aa 5aa 5aa 5aa 5aa 5aa 5aa 5aa 5aa 5aa 5aa 5aa 5aa 5aa 5lm 5lm 5lm 5lm 5lm 5lm 5m6 5m6 5m6 77c 77c 77c 78q 7k2 7k2 7k2 7k2 7k2 7q9 7q9 7q9 7q9 7q9 7q9 8pq

I'm not very happy about this loss. You might think that sop devour is a counter to immortal, but it is far from. A properly made immortal even with 47 cards is still a 45-55% matchup. There's a reason why they call it the immortal.( or SBLAD )

Game 1:
Sera got a good draw with first turn devour. I got to little quanta, late sanc. Loss

Game 2:
I got a good draw. Once again Sera gets a good draw with early devour. I was forced to discard 1 sanc before I could play my first sanc. Late game I miss counted seras damage output by 10? and I got killed. Otherwise I had stall power for 5 more turns and by then sera would only have 2 cards left in the deck and I would have drawn another 4 cards to stall with. Should have been a win I think.

Game 3:
What can I say Sera had a super draw with 4 devours out turn 3-4. I managed to stall until 6 cards left.

Like I said earlier I'm not very happy about this loss partly because I had a fair chance and lost 3-0 but also because of predictions. My first choice would have been bow. I predicted they would predict that and bring The Trap which is their best choice to counter the bow. Therefore I brought a stall which beats the trap. They predicted me to predict The Trap and bring a stall to beat. Therefore they brought that deck.

There are 3 layers of predictions here:

1: Either I could have played my best choices bow and would have won.
2: I predicted they would predict my best choice and brought a counter vs that. They predicted that, loss.
3: I could have predicted, they wouldn't predict my best choice since it was a to obvious call ( bow ). That way I could have predicted they wouldn't use the trap but the deck that beats the trap. ( in other words the deck they played now ). Then I would have brought the deck that beats that deck, which is bow. Would have been a win.

So in 3 predicting scenarios/layers I win 2 and they win 1. So in addition to they beating me with a deck that only has about 55% win rate vs me they also won the random predicting scheme. This means I would win in 2.45/3 cases and they in 0.55/3. How lucky can you be  ?

GG's team

[ARTHANASIOS]

+rep for Blacksmith's prediction scenarios, but you guys forget one thing. There is one RNG to rule us all...

[Manuel]

nice deck, sera

[Aves]

Nice predictions, except for the part about bow. This beats bow. If you don't believe me, well, take the deck for a spin yourself and see how it goes. As for the counters... well... I don't see how you can say SoP doesn't counter immortal.

[ARTHANASIOS]

It is because of 6 dials, the sods/stoneskins and the fact sopa must go for an otk or something (due to miracle and sancs) in order to kill the immortal and all these while being 30 cards. In other words, it has 23-24 turns to do so or game over.

[Blacksmith]

This beats bow. If you don't believe me, well, take the deck for a spin yourself and see how it goes. As for the counters... well... I don't see how you can say SoP doesn't counter immortal.

I have no more comments until after war....

[Zawadx]

There are 3 layers of predictions here:

1: Either I could have played my best choices bow and would have won.
2: I predicted they would predict my best choice and brought a counter vs that. They predicted that, loss.
3: I could have predicted, they wouldn't predict my best choice since it was a to obvious call ( bow ). That way I could have predicted they wouldn't use the trap but the deck that beats the trap. ( in other words the deck they played now ). Then I would have brought the deck that beats that deck, which is bow. Would have been a win.

So in 3 predicting scenarios/layers I win 2 and they win 1. So in addition to they beating me with a deck that only has about 55% win rate vs me they also won the random predicting scheme. This means I would win in 2.45/3 cases and they in 0.55/3. How lucky can you be  ?

Except we didn't just roll a three-sided dice to decide which layer of prediction we hoped you would be in xD Correctly identifying which level a certain team is most likely to win is what wins teams wars. You just have to use the information available to you. Yes this early on any information you use can have a wide margin of error, but it's still far from random. Do bear this in mind when deciding other matchups!