What Are the Odds? Hypergeometric Probability and You

[coinich]

Naw, no problem at all.  Graphs are great for trends, and useless here for raw information.  I'll try and have a link of zipped pics in all of their uncropped glory up after I get home from vacation.

[Progwolf]

Amazing!

[Immolation]

Err...You just gave me a MASSIVE headache, sir...  ???  ???

[Ekki]

Cool Tool  8)
+Karma for making deckbuilding a bigger headache

[~Napalm]

So I was trying to account for the Mulligan and came up with the same thing you did. (% getting X cards in Y turns)(1 + % getting 0 no cost cards). Anybody up to making a calculator that includes that function?

And you're right, the mulligan doesn't actually improve your chances much.

[coinich]

My calculator did include that function, unless otherwise specified.

[Tom Chunata]

I think putting mulligan math is easy.
Changing number of success to 14 (to account for bad first hand and then for mullied second hand)
So in a 30 card rol hope deck, if you mulligan the first time, and you should have at least one RoL in the second hand, no? (98%)
Don't mind me much, I'm just a simpleton.

[Blues]

Number of Successes in Population:  Total number of cards you want to draw.
Number of Successes in Sample:  Amount of the card you want to draw.

I have difficulties to understand the difference between Successes in Population and Successes in Sample.
Maybe that's because English is not my native language.
When I have 15 Quantum Towers in a deck of 40 cards and I want to draw 2 in my first turn, then Number of Successes in Population is 15 and Number of Successes in Sample is 2?

[teffy]

When I have 15 Quantum Towers in a deck of 40 cards and I want to draw 2 in my first turn, then Number of Successes in Population is 15 and Number of Successes in Sample is 2?

Yes.

[Raptor6789]

is there a way to calculate different cards in your first draw?
i have a fire rush deck which needs photons, immolations/cremations, and lava golemns/lava destroyers on the first turn.
this would be kinda complicated cuz you have to calculate the probability of the photon, then the probability of the next card assuming one photon is drawn, and then the probability assuming 2 photons are drawn, and so on.

and when you all are calculating probabilities, dont forget that you have 8 cards if you lose the spin and 7 if you win.

[coinich]

Theoretically, yes.  I don't have the time to pursue that however, sorry.  You might get the same results by going for two of a card, running equal amounts in the deck, and then comparing to how many there are total, if you understood that.

[Dragoon]

Just wanted to drop by and say that this is a crucial part of deck-building to me.  I think more people should be using this.  If you only do a QI check, then you've only done half the work.  Figuring out the probabilities of drawing X number of quanta sources and key cards is just as important.  Thanks for taking the time to explain how to work the calculator coinich.