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Offline GGTopic starter

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just experienced something of 0.000000000000696% chance https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=19343.msg245508#msg245508
« on: January 12, 2011, 12:15:41 am »
Championship League game against spikespiegel...

I had a 30 card aether deck with 12 towers... and....

Didn't draw a single tower until I had 13 cards left in my deck.

No I didn't accidently not pack any towers. I checked the deck after the match and it clearly had 12 towers.


WTF. I hate you, RNG.
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Offline killsdazombies

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Re: just experienced something of 0.000000000000696% chance https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=19343.msg245524#msg245524
« Reply #1 on: January 12, 2011, 12:27:59 am »
god hates winners :D

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Re: just experienced something of 0.000000000000696% chance https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=19343.msg245545#msg245545
« Reply #2 on: January 12, 2011, 12:57:29 am »
You beat MrBLonde :D

Offline willng3

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Re: just experienced something of 0.000000000000696% chance https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=19343.msg245558#msg245558
« Reply #3 on: January 12, 2011, 01:29:13 am »
^Did you account for auto-mulligan in there?
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Re: just experienced something of 0.000000000000696% chance https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=19343.msg245593#msg245593
« Reply #4 on: January 12, 2011, 02:15:17 am »
I get that sometimes when Im facing HB but I got only 8 Towers in the 35 card deck.

Ive gotten no towers in 10 turns.

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Re: just experienced something of 0.000000000000696% chance https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=19343.msg245650#msg245650
« Reply #5 on: January 12, 2011, 03:36:32 am »

Offline RootRanger

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Re: just experienced something of 0.000000000000696% chance https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=19343.msg245663#msg245663
« Reply #6 on: January 12, 2011, 03:51:52 am »
1st : 8 cards drawn(no towers) = probability 8/30

Rule used:
each event is independent of each other
Two events, A and B, are independent if the fact that A occurs does not affect the probability of B occurring.
I managed to follow the majority of it, but how do you get 8/30 for the first 8 cards drawn? Having no towers out of 8 cards drawn should be much lower than 8/30. Also, did you include mulligan?
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Offline ZephyrPhantom

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Re: just experienced something of 0.000000000000696% chance https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=19343.msg245665#msg245665
« Reply #7 on: January 12, 2011, 03:54:44 am »
*anime fall*  What... the...heck?

On a more related note, see this (http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=5416.0)

Offline jumpoffduck

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Re: just experienced something of 0.000000000000696% chance https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=19343.msg245698#msg245698
« Reply #8 on: January 12, 2011, 04:31:20 am »
Heh. I'm getting a different number than either of you.

30 cards, 12 towers = 18 nontowers

Starting hand = 7 cards, probability of all those being nontowers = (18/30)*(17/29)*etcetc*(12/24) = 0.015632184

To account for automulligan, we square that number, since there's also a .015 chance of that happening the second time. SO we have 0.000244365

Account for the remaining cards:
0.000244365*(11/23)*(10/22)*(9/21)*etcetc*(3/15) = 0.00000001644671 for not getting any towers until the deck has 14 cards left.

There's (12/14) chance of getting the tower on the next draw, so we multiply that for our final answer of 0.0000000140972 = 1.40972*10-8 = 0.00000140972%


Offline Marvaddin

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Re: just experienced something of 0.000000000000696% chance https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=19343.msg245736#msg245736
« Reply #9 on: January 12, 2011, 05:15:22 am »
Lol, I had posted a topic about these rare strange events being much more commom after last upgrade... I still think theres something different, although could just be my imagination :P

Sodomir

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Re: just experienced something of 0.000000000000696% chance https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=19343.msg245831#msg245831
« Reply #10 on: January 12, 2011, 09:15:43 am »
Lol, I had posted a topic about these rare strange events being much more commom after last upgrade... I still think theres something different, although could just be my imagination :P
Murphy's law?!

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Re: just experienced something of 0.000000000000696% chance https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=19343.msg245872#msg245872
« Reply #11 on: January 12, 2011, 12:12:54 pm »
Reminds me of my 4 turn EM against Gemini ::)
I think SS felt just as lucky as I did then.
For some reason I also never draw a Tower/Pendulum right after Mulligan fail.

 

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