Elements Mafia 72 - by Ginyu

[worldwideweb3]

Sarcasm.

I assume the prev post was a joke comment.

[vagman13]

I still dont have any strong scumread

one more vote for mobian

I believe he's 60-40 in favour of town BUT the people I suspect the most voted on him.If he dies and turns up town we might have a mafia or two.

[TheonlyrealBeef]

Alrighty then, time to make another post. In general, I feel the need to emphasize that I do not have much to add as long as posts are low on content or concrete scum read points. Or better yet, an actual defense for Mobian? So far, his sob story is the only defense, which has absolutely nothing to do with him being scum or not.

I agree with iancu that www in his current state should not live to see the endgame, otherwise he will be a distraction from other players. I prefer to not lynch him earlier than Day 3 though.

On Day 3, I will vote with you if we won't have a better option.

+1, with the additional sidenote of unless:

I would like to note that if (if!) Mobian flips mafia that means that w3 is almost always innocent

I find the w3 lynch orchestration reasoning to be kind of weak. How does this tell us significantly more than the lynch log of any other lynch to come? Just like Sub pointed out, now that I get the time to re-read everything. The entire w3 tunneling and lynch training mostly just started from w3 being w3...
Which might be a good enough reason if I had no concrete scum reads. I do.

Regarding dawn being active or not around the end of round... I am not particularly favorable about reading too much into it. I would only blame dawn for speaking a lie, if anything. The end of round activity was so explosive, it was almost impossible to casually catch up, let alone get in a reasonable argument.
But both the timing and truth behind it are lost one me, so continuing that argument only makes me think worse of all parties involved in that discussion. These are not the kind of points I like seeing as scum reads.

Now, with the latest vote of vaggy,

I still dont have any strong scumread

one more vote for mobian

I believe he's 60-40 in favour of town BUT the people I suspect the most voted on him.If he dies and turns up town we might have a mafia or two.

we get:

Mobian (5) - TheonlyrealBeef, kaempfer13, Linkcat, worldwideweb3, vagman13
worldwideweb3 (4) - iancudorinmarian, PlayerOa, dawn to dusk, Calindu
vagman13 (1) - Submachine

[MasterWalks]

Put my vote on submachine. I simply don't see where you guys are getting a town read

[Calindu]

Mobian (5) - TheonlyrealBeef, kaempfer13, Linkcat, worldwideweb3, vagman13
worldwideweb3 (4) - iancudorinmarian, PlayerOa, dawn to dusk, Calindu
vagman13 (1) - Submachine
Submachine (1) - MasterWalks

[kaempfer13]

@TorB Mobian tried to kill w3 last minute (and failed). Unless they decided to buss each other from the start, there is no way they are on the same team (unless both are villagers).

[TheonlyrealBeef]

@TorB Mobian tried to kill w3 last minute (and failed). Unless they decided to buss each other from the start, there is no way they are on the same team (unless both are villagers).

I guess I can agree that regardless of which one turns out to be maf, the other will be town. But that's all.

[worldwideweb3]

Mobian (5) - TheonlyrealBeef, kaempfer13, Linkcat, worldwideweb3, vagman13
worldwideweb3 (4) - iancudorinmarian, PlayerOa, dawn to dusk, Calindu
vagman13 (1) - Submachine
Submachine (1) - MasterWalks

People left to vote: nel nai IW mob

[Submachine]

15 players are alive. 11 Town and 4 Mafia. It is currently Day 2.

Just some data. If we assume that the Nightkill won't fail, we won't allow No Lynch and noone gets modkilled, Town has 4 mislynches until a loss.
The 4th mislynch is the loss. If we bank on the current No Lynch list hiding at least one Mafia without the list actually hiding a Mafia, we get the following lineup:

D2: 11-4 to 10-4 - first mislynch (Mobian)
N2: 10-4 to 9-4
D3: 9-4 to 8-4 - second mislynch (www3)
N3: 8-4 to 7-4
D4: 7-4 to 6-4 - third mislynch (me or TorB)
N4: 6-4 to 5-4
D5: 5-4 to 4-4 - fourth mislynch = Mafia wins.

So until we have ACTUAL EVIDENCE that one of the No Lynchers is Mafia, I advise against following this lineup.

[worldwideweb3]

As I said before the no lynch wagon is all town.

[iancudorinmarian]

panicking on day 2 OMEGALUL

[Submachine]

We can panic on Day 4 if you want, with two more Towns dead. Guess which one is wiser.