Poll

Who played the best mafia?

iancudorinmarian
0 (0%)
Linkcat
9 (15.5%)
PlayerOa
0 (0%)
JonathanCrazyJ
0 (0%)
immortal_feud
0 (0%)
kaempfer13
9 (15.5%)
ddevans96
8 (13.8%)
dawn to dusk
0 (0%)
InsignificantWeeaboo
0 (0%)
Espithel
4 (6.9%)
MasterWalks
1 (1.7%)
Mobian
1 (1.7%)
mathman101
0 (0%)
RootRanger
6 (10.3%)
shockcannon
6 (10.3%)
Ginyu
9 (15.5%)
Calindu
5 (8.6%)
moehrpi
0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 19

Voting closed: June 24, 2019, 11:12:55 am

*Author

Offline ddevans96

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Re: Elements Mafia 71 - by Submachine https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=67178.msg1290926#msg1290926
« Reply #948 on: June 14, 2019, 09:30:58 pm »
I'll be away from home most of the weekend. Make sure stuff gets logged, etc.
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Offline Calindu

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Re: Elements Mafia 71 - by Submachine https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=67178.msg1290937#msg1290937
« Reply #949 on: June 15, 2019, 02:21:20 pm »
@Calindu, what I'm about to do may seem scummy and may make it look like both myself and ddevans could be mafia. However, I'm going to assume that you feel strongly about AT LEAST 1 mafia being among mathman and Ginyu. If this does reflect what you believe, then I'm willing to vote on whoever you vote on. You can choose between mathman and Ginyu and I'll support your choice. Otherwise I'm going to vote no lynch and just hope town can win a 3 vs. 2 situation.


Also, if you think I'm truly mafia, then go for it, but don't just join a vote on me because others are going for it. Mafia is going to be desperately trying to survive this day phase, because if they do they win. So they're going to target whoever they think is easiest to get town votes on.

Truth is, I'm not sure what to do, I don't trust you as I still believe there is a good chance you are mafia, and making the bad choice will result in the game ending immediately. In fact, I don't trust any of you, the one I trust the most is Root, but I still am not more than 60% sure that he's town. You are right I feel strongly about one of the mafia being either mathman or Ginyu, but I also believe that there are really low chances that both of them are mafia, and this leaves one of you, ddevans or Root as the other one.

Before I make a decision, I'd like to hear more options, and I believe we should roleclaim and post all the info we have, maybe we find inconsistencies.

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Offline RootRanger

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Re: Elements Mafia 71 - by Submachine https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=67178.msg1290941#msg1290941
« Reply #950 on: June 15, 2019, 05:19:00 pm »
In theory, the no lynch would be correct, but there are a lot of complications that in my opinion make it no longer worth it.

The idea would be that 2-in-5 odds are better than 2-in-6 odds, but this assumes that every player is equally likely to be lynched, which is not the case at all. Realistically, the next lynch, whether in this day phase or the next one, is going to be between Ginyu/mathman/shock. If we no-lynch today, mafia will NK someone among me/Calindu/ddevans. The next lynch won't be any easier, because all of the most suspicious players will still be alive.

Whereas the downsides to a no-lynch include -

If mafia has an Otyugh, a no-lynch would (most likely) throw the game. This would be ok if it was a long shot for us to win anyways, but I think our odds are not actually that bad and we have a lot of information to go off of.

If a single player neglects to vote in the next day phase, a no-lynch would also throw the game. Mafia would have 2 of the 4 players voting. This outcome is just as likely as mafia having an Otyugh if not more. Ginyu/mathman have been unreliable in terms of posting consistently. Unfortunately, I don't think it can be taken for a fact that they'll reliably vote for the best target tomorrow, even if they're civ.

Furthermore, in a 3v2, all of the civs have to vote together on the same target. If a single civ deviates from the target of the other two civs, mafia can vote together to control the lynch, or force no lynch at all. The only time this game we've had all of the civs voting together was the Espi lynch where he was confirmed mafia. Even in the day afterward where Linkcat was the very clear lynch target, the civs were not unified in their vote. So, I think a no-lynch this round has a lot more risk than it's worth.

My role is Ghost of the Past. I haven't gotten anything out of it.

I trust Calindu the most and would like to know what his reads are.

My reads would be, in order of most suspicious to least, shock/Ginyu/ddevans/mathman/Calindu.

shock, I have spoken plenty on. Linkcat being mafia only solidifies my suspicions because of how he saved shock from lynching the same way he did with Espithel.

With Ginyu, most of my suspicion lies in the fact that IW's ability failed on him. I think it's reasonably likely he's the mafia Anubis we're looking for. I'm not surprised that Ginyu is voting on shock; if they're both mafia I think that he wants to push the lynch on his teammate to win back trust with the civs.

ddevans, I'd initially thought he was mafia Anubis and he still might be, but Ginyu is starting to look like a realistic possibility as well. If I were playing purely on mechanics I'd probably swap Ginyu/ddevans in my list, but based on reads, ddevans seems pretty hurt that things haven't been working out as well for the civs as he wanted. If he's civ, I think he's just outright wrong about shockcannon though.

mathman is just plain inactive. As far as I know, there's no solid reasoning he would be the mafia Anubis, or any other mafia role.

Calindu I trust because he has played consistently over the entire course of the game and have no reason to be suspicious of him.




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Offline RootRanger

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Re: Elements Mafia 71 - by Submachine https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=67178.msg1290942#msg1290942
« Reply #951 on: June 15, 2019, 05:19:58 pm »
No Lynch (1) - ddevans96
shockcannon (2) - Ginyu, RootRanger
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Offline ddevans96

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Re: Elements Mafia 71 - by Submachine https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=67178.msg1290943#msg1290943
« Reply #952 on: June 15, 2019, 05:22:47 pm »
If it isn't clear by the several posts I've made about him, I have a neutral read on shock currently, and have since before the moe lynch. I can't exactly be 'wrong' about being unsure, lol
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Offline ddevans96

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Re: Elements Mafia 71 - by Submachine https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=67178.msg1290946#msg1290946
« Reply #953 on: June 15, 2019, 05:36:26 pm »
It's just funny how often a post is made about my interactions with shock and it's inaccurate. It's happening too often to be coincidence. Mafia wants people to see a different connection between us than what's actually there.

One of Root/Cal/Ginyu is mafia. Probably two, if not, then the other is shock. math is probably town.

Put my vote on Cal.
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Offline shockcannon

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Re: Elements Mafia 71 - by Submachine https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=67178.msg1290947#msg1290947
« Reply #954 on: June 15, 2019, 05:48:08 pm »
Ginyu and mathman need to reveal now otherwise they need to be lynched. Also there is no graboid so don’t worry about hiding that.
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Re: Elements Mafia 71 - by Submachine https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=67178.msg1290948#msg1290948
« Reply #955 on: June 15, 2019, 05:48:17 pm »
Basically, if math isn't mafia, then the remaining pool is shock, and people that have gotten my stance on shock incorrect recently. Since I already chewed out Cal, in good faith, I'll suggest he's the one of the mafia and not 'bad town', and he put up an MVP performance if he is. His play this game fits better than Root or Ginyu into the chaotic strategies Link and Espi traditionally employ.
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Offline ddevans96

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Re: Elements Mafia 71 - by Submachine https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=67178.msg1290949#msg1290949
« Reply #956 on: June 15, 2019, 05:49:25 pm »
If not Cal, I'd prefer Ginyu or shock lynches to Root or math.
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Offline Calindu

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Re: Elements Mafia 71 - by Submachine https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=67178.msg1290951#msg1290951
« Reply #957 on: June 15, 2019, 07:02:17 pm »
My role is Ghost of the Past. I haven't gotten anything out of it.

I trust Calindu the most and would like to know what his reads are.

When and on who have you used your role on?

Also, my reads are as following:

v

RootRanger - Same read as my last time, really, I don't see anything wrong this his play.

n+

ddevans - Him being very sad about the plays not working out seems very genuine, I don't think he's faking it, but he can easily pull that off, so I can't fully trust him.

w

shockcannon - I iterated many times why I don't really trust shock, I can't deny that he started becoming more credible at some point, but him pushing the IW lynch last round made me doubt him again.
mathman - The main reason is that we are searching for the mafia Anubis, and he didn't really provide much information or help all game

ww

Ginyu - Same primary reason as mathman, but is even lower because he faked graboid the entire game.

Basically, if math isn't mafia, then the remaining pool is shock, and people that have gotten my stance on shock incorrect recently. Since I already chewed out Cal, in good faith, I'll suggest he's the one of the mafia and not 'bad town', and he put up an MVP performance if he is. His play this game fits better than Root or Ginyu into the chaotic strategies Link and Espi traditionally employ.

I'm not sure what to say about this really, since your argument is that I haven't understood your shock stance correctly, and I still believe I don't tbh.

I'm still not putting my vote, want the rest of the roles first.

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Re: Elements Mafia 71 - by Submachine https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=67178.msg1290952#msg1290952
« Reply #958 on: June 15, 2019, 07:12:56 pm »
Haven't used my role at all this game. I'm open to the Ginyu lynch if you think it's the play. Depends on the remaining role reveals I guess.
Somehow still around, somewhat

Offline shockcannon

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Re: Elements Mafia 71 - by Submachine https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=67178.msg1290955#msg1290955
« Reply #959 on: June 15, 2019, 08:53:01 pm »
Calindu, can you share the results of all your night actions? I might have just found some inconsistencies in people's stories. I need to know your actions though. Also, if you need my results I already posted mine throughout this thread but I'll compile them into one post later today when I have more time to type out a post.
You are what you eat from your head to your feet

 

blarg: