Poll

Who played the best mafia?

iancudorinmarian
0 (0%)
Linkcat
9 (15.5%)
PlayerOa
0 (0%)
JonathanCrazyJ
0 (0%)
immortal_feud
0 (0%)
kaempfer13
9 (15.5%)
ddevans96
8 (13.8%)
dawn to dusk
0 (0%)
InsignificantWeeaboo
0 (0%)
Espithel
4 (6.9%)
MasterWalks
1 (1.7%)
Mobian
1 (1.7%)
mathman101
0 (0%)
RootRanger
6 (10.3%)
shockcannon
6 (10.3%)
Ginyu
9 (15.5%)
Calindu
5 (8.6%)
moehrpi
0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 19

Voting closed: June 24, 2019, 11:12:55 am

*Author

Offline InsignificantWeeaboo

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Re: Elements Mafia 71 - by Submachine http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=67178.msg1290882#msg1290882
« Reply #936 on: June 13, 2019, 07:57:06 pm »
you dun goofed again, shock
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Offline Submachine

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Re: Elements Mafia 71 - by Submachine http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=67178.msg1290910#msg1290910
« Reply #937 on: June 14, 2019, 06:22:53 pm »
Day 7

Mobian died. He was an Elemental and an Amber Nymph.

People in danger of modkill: Ginyu

Day 7 has ended.
And we keep driving into the night
It's a late goodbye, such a late goodbye...

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Offline shockcannon

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Re: Elements Mafia 71 - by Submachine http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=67178.msg1290911#msg1290911
« Reply #938 on: June 14, 2019, 06:27:13 pm »
lol mafia just threw.
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Re: Elements Mafia 71 - by Submachine http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=67178.msg1290912#msg1290912
« Reply #939 on: June 14, 2019, 06:28:40 pm »
No Lynch (1) - ddevans96

May deviate, but this is the safe option.
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Offline Ginyu

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Re: Elements Mafia 71 - by Submachine http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=67178.msg1290913#msg1290913
« Reply #940 on: June 14, 2019, 06:43:44 pm »
Mind to elaborate why we should not lynch?
While not lynching will not lose us the game immediately, by tomorrow mafia will have a 40 % rate in the voting, while today it is only 33 %. Also, some might not be voting.

Talking about voting, I am ready to vote today.
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Offline Ginyu

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Re: Elements Mafia 71 - by Submachine http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=67178.msg1290915#msg1290915
« Reply #941 on: June 14, 2019, 07:09:47 pm »
No Lynch (1) - ddevans96
shockcannon (1) - Ginyu

Obvious one, although I am hesitent to move to dd. shock hurt town all game very aggressively without any real defense. Interestingly enough, the one who kept covering him was dd, only pointing out "nah, just bad town, just how he plays, I believe him". I already said how ridiculous of a defense that is, but they seem to have been married by now, looking through recent chat logs (yes, I did check them this morning after seeing like 20 pings, and yes that does include the one you did not post, nice try to hide that).

Overall, there is a chance shock was simply trolling for the point of trolling and eventually started caring about the game, but dd considered him easy prey, as defending him would get mafia another vote under their belt. For now, shock (or both) seem more likely, however.
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Offline ddevans96

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Re: Elements Mafia 71 - by Submachine http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=67178.msg1290917#msg1290917
« Reply #942 on: June 14, 2019, 07:25:06 pm »
I guess I keep quoting it, so here's a relevant snippet from mafiascum's wiki:

Quote
While the opportunity for No Lynch is available in MyLo, whether it should be done is a different question. On the upside, by refusing to lynch the Town may be able to give its investigative roles another chance to work their magic. On the downside, if the Town has already massclaimed or if there are no roles that can make use of the Night remaining, opting not to lynch will simply give the scum a free kill on the Townie who is most likely to help the Town lynch correctly at LyLo.

It's a series of tradeoffs. If we lynch on 4v2, the worst case scenario is that we lose the game immediately. We have to kill a mafia, and 2/6 of the people are mafia - 4v2 is pretty hard to sort out.

If we No Lynch and go 3v2 we are guaranteed to live (barring modkill or kill roles ofc). Mafia does indeed have more voting power, but in exchange, 3v2 is easier to sort out and kill a mafia because of that higher ratio, as well.

If we do successfully lynch on 4v2, it becomes 3v1 - in which case we have the same situation, we can go for the kill, or no lynch and guarantee another round. In that situation, 3v1 is usually not too bad to sort out, so if you take the risk of not making it to that point and succeed, setting up this choice can be very favorable.

If you lynch in 3v2, or no lynch in 3v1, it becomes 2v1, which is one of the easiest things to solve unless an extremely skilled and/or information-rich mafia is in play. That scenario can be setup either way.

To be clear, I don't think lynching is the incorrect play, it's just the riskier one.

shock hurt town all game very aggressively without any real defense.

So did IW. We lynched for that, and he flipped town. The differences are shock provided way more logic in exchange for him fakeclaiming a role that was already essentially confirmed, given that MW had already breadcrumbed it.

Quote
Interestingly enough, the one who kept covering him was dd, only pointing out "nah, just bad town, just how he plays, I believe him".  I already said how ridiculous of a defense that is, but they seem to have been married by now, looking through recent chat logs (yes, I did check them this morning after seeing like 20 pings, and yes that does include the one you did not post, nice try to hide that).

As I have said about 20 times, this is never an excuse or a townread I used. This was something Link was saying, not me. My town read on shock (which no longer exists, and hasn't for some time) was never related to his style of play. Keep in mind I spotted Link due to what I would call 'bad town' (and to reiterate, I hate that term), and also read IW as 'bad town' for roleblocking even more than shock did.

And I've posted chat logs or asked someone to post them for me if I was unable pretty much every time a long conversation has occurred. I have probably been the most mindful of chatlogs. I have not attempted to hide anything - I would guess that most of the chatlogs did not include me, or someone didn't log after I asked.

Quote
Overall, there is a chance shock was simply trolling for the point of trolling and eventually started caring about the game, but dd considered him easy prey, as defending him would get mafia another vote under their belt. For now, shock (or both) seem more likely, however.

Playing rogue isn't troling, especially when everyone else playing by the book blindly followed Link, an obvious mafia, and got three townies killed. The GN fakeclaim didn't even matter, MW was very likely GN, due to the circumstances of d1 and his breadcrumb (and ultimately, I think he missed the optimal timing to claim anyways, at a time when shock's fakeclaim was no longer relevant and there was no 'pressure' to counterclaim)
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Offline ddevans96

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Re: Elements Mafia 71 - by Submachine http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=67178.msg1290919#msg1290919
« Reply #943 on: June 14, 2019, 07:30:07 pm »
Spoiler for Chat Log, 1830 GMT (regarding: Cal and I have a much more civil conversation than yesterday - no lynch vs lynch, and who we should lynch - predicting NK - timing / foreshadowing / aftermath of MW's GN claim):

[2019-06-14 12:30:43] Calindu: Did Mobian say who he'll target?
[2019-06-14 12:31:26] ddevans96: he planned to target Ginyu
[2019-06-14 12:32:21] Calindu: Ah, I see, that happened
[2019-06-14 12:32:28] Calindu: I wasn't sure if he confirmed he'll do it
[2019-06-14 12:33:48] Calindu: Are you sure no lynch is safer today than a lynch? I see lynching next day phase is just as risky, if not riskier, with the current roles
[2019-06-14 12:34:47] ddevans96: yes. 2/6 is lower than 2/5
[2019-06-14 12:34:53] ddevans96: I mean, it's debatable
[2019-06-14 12:35:11] ddevans96: 'While the opportunity for No Lynch is available in MyLo, whether it should be done is a different question. On the upside, by refusing to lynch the Town may be able to give its investigative roles another chance to work their magic. On the downside, if the Town has already massclaimed or if there are no roles that can make use of the Night remaining, opting not to lynch will simply give the scum a free kill on the Townie who is most likely to help the Town lynch correctly at LyLo.'
[2019-06-14 12:35:54] shockcannon: if ginyu is town and dies to modkill we lose
[2019-06-14 12:36:04] shockcannon: @Ginyu
[2019-06-14 12:36:11] Calindu: Well, what I'm arguing is that either you or me will get NKed
[2019-06-14 12:36:26] Calindu: And next phase will be just as random as this one
[2019-06-14 12:36:36] Calindu: Or Root, forgot about him
[2019-06-14 12:37:13] ‹ddevans96› I'm not sure how that's an argument
[2019-06-14 12:37:27] ‹ddevans96› you're saying there's three people who, if they're town, stand a good chance of figuring out the game in a 3-2
[2019-06-14 12:37:29] ‹ddevans96› yes?
[2019-06-14 12:38:08] ‹Calindu› No, what I'm saying is that it's unlikely someone else gets NKed
[2019-06-14 12:38:09] ‹ddevans96› so then it doesn't really matter if mafia gets a 'free' kill on one of us
[2019-06-14 12:38:33] ‹Calindu› So the pool of people that are likely to be mafia is not smaller
[2019-06-14 12:39:18] ‹ddevans96› yes
[2019-06-14 12:40:05] ‹shockcannon› listen
[2019-06-14 12:40:13] ‹shockcannon› shockcannon, root, claindu, ddevans
[2019-06-14 12:40:17] ‹Calindu› We need to lynch correctly twice, and we have a no lynch day
[2019-06-14 12:40:19] ‹shockcannon› out of those 4, if 2 are mafia its game over
[2019-06-14 12:40:27] ‹shockcannon› because ginyu isn't voting
[2019-06-14 12:40:31] ‹shockcannon› so if him and mathman are town its over
[2019-06-14 12:40:38] ‹Calindu› I think using the no lynch at 3v1 is better
[2019-06-14 12:40:51] ‹shockcannon› so we just have to assume at least 1 mafia is in mathman/ginyu
[2019-06-14 12:40:55] ‹shockcannon› and we lynch one of them
[2019-06-14 12:41:01] ‹ddevans96› okay, but getting to 3v1 requires us hitting a mafia now
[2019-06-14 12:41:11] ‹ddevans96› that's why it's riskier
[2019-06-14 12:41:24] ‹Calindu› Well, if we no lynch and then lynch correctly next phase it will be a 2v1 at lylo
[2019-06-14 12:41:58] ‹Calindu› I suppose we can wait with the lynch, but I think it will still be the same thing
[2019-06-14 12:42:13] ‹ddevans96› 2v1 is way easier to solve than 4v2
[2019-06-14 12:43:10] ‹Calindu› Well, it's the balance of 3v2 followed by 2v1 or 4v2 followed by 3v1 (it can become 2v1 if no lynch)
[2019-06-14 12:43:56] ‹ddevans96› so who would you want to lynch? and don't say shock bc 'bad town', IW was three times more 'bad town' and he flipped town, so come up with an actual scumread on him if that's your proposal
[2019-06-14 12:44:24] ‹InsignificantWeeaboo›
[2019-06-14 12:44:39] ‹Calindu› If Root is pushing on shock I might actually join that, but I offered the alternative of finding the Anubis already
[2019-06-14 12:44:42] ‹Calindu› So Ginyu/mathman
[2019-06-14 12:44:47] ‹InsignificantWeeaboo› I think that it should be a rule of thumb not to lynch of "bad town" alone
[2019-06-14 12:45:01] ‹InsignificantWeeaboo› *on the grounds of
[2019-06-14 12:45:20] ‹ddevans96› ‹@InsignificantWeeaboo› I mean, yes, but also no
[2019-06-14 12:45:27] ‹ddevans96› I'll talk more about that another time. not relevant rn
[2019-06-14 12:45:50] ‹ddevans96› ‹@Calindu› okay. do you have a preference between Ginyu and mathman, and why?
[2019-06-14 12:46:12] ‹Calindu› Go to any other site, if someone fake claims officer and someone finds it's false, they get lynched right there
[2019-06-14 12:46:23] ‹Calindu› Ginyu, he has been using the graboid cover to not vote the entire game
[2019-06-14 12:47:07] ‹ddevans96› the game we play is barely comparable to games on other sites, tbh
[2019-06-14 12:48:10] ‹ddevans96› and anyways - 1) MW was very obviously the GN, and 2) he kinda claimed at the wrong time anyways, without any interference from shock as to the exact timing
[2019-06-14 12:48:48] ‹Calindu› I didn't really believe MW was the GN until he claimed, he played really aggro
[2019-06-14 12:49:00] ‹Calindu› And I think he claimed well, there's no guarantee he lives 2 more night phases
[2019-06-14 12:49:42] ‹ddevans96› it's not so much about him as it is about kae
[2019-06-14 12:50:14] ‹ddevans96› anyways - aggro GN is a play sometimes. remember, I kept insinuating that's what shock was doing (although I breadcrumbed that I thought it was MW)
[2019-06-14 12:50:31] ‹ddevans96› and it...kinda really worked, actually
[2019-06-14 12:50:35] ‹Guest-HornedFrog-b3e8d›
[2019-06-14 12:51:01] ‹ddevans96› bc it caused Link to move to defend Espi, which set up the chain of events that led to me strongly believing he was mafia
[2019-06-14 12:51:05] ‹Submachine›
[2019-06-14 12:51:54] ‹ddevans96› sure, Link had everyone around his finger for three rounds, but it did ultimately out both
[2019-06-14 12:51:55] ‹Calindu› MW's play did work, yeah, I don't disagree, I just didn't expect it
[2019-06-14 12:52:33] ‹ddevans96› and mafia couldn't really safely kill MW immediately, it'd have just confirmed Espi
[2019-06-14 12:54:24] ‹Calindu› Well yeah, that's why I don't think MW would have lived 2 more night phases
[2019-06-14 12:54:32] ‹Calindu› At some point they had to tie out the loose ends
[2019-06-14 12:55:12] ‹ddevans96› yes, but again - not about him, but about kae
[2019-06-14 12:56:15] ‹Calindu› I'm not sure what about kae tbh
[2019-06-14 12:57:36] ‹ddevans96› oh, MW also breadcrumbed he was GN, btw
[2019-06-14 12:57:49] ‹ddevans96› http://elementscommunity.org/forum/forum-game...
[2019-06-14 12:57:59] ‹Calindu› Kae getting NKed is the same as any other civvy getting NKed, as MW had to claim kae as confirmed civvy
[2019-06-14 12:58:21] ‹Calindu› I see
[2019-06-14 12:58:51] ‹Calindu› Sure, the play would have worked much better if kae could actually oty Espithel, he would be confirmed after that either way
[2019-06-14 12:59:00] ‹Calindu› But MW had no way of knowing that
[2019-06-14 13:00:49] ‹ddevans96› the thing is, kae was nightkilled pretty much immediately after MW claimed, bc he claimed during the night phase
[2019-06-14 13:01:07] ‹ddevans96› having a confirmed civvy during the day is more useful than having one during the night
[2019-06-14 13:01:29] ‹ddevans96› unless mafia planned to kill MW that very night, in which case he did time it properly, I would say
[2019-06-14 13:02:29] ‹Calindu› Yeah, it's about whether he'd get NKed or not
[2019-06-14 13:02:45] ‹ddevans96› but - the kill on kae was on n3. mafia knows he used n0 and n2, and would use n4
[2019-06-14 13:03:20] ‹ddevans96› so there's reason for them to not kill MW on n3, even if they think he's GN and he hadn't claimed him and kae
[2019-06-14 13:03:43] ‹ddevans96› either way - Espi would be lynched
[2019-06-14 13:04:24] ‹Calindu› Yeah, I think you are right, forgot about the fact that the claim was during the night
[2019-06-14 13:05:13] ‹Calindu› The better timing would have been N4
[2019-06-14 13:05:14] ‹InsignificantWeeaboo›
[2019-06-14 13:05:23] ‹Aves› Brawl Auction is live! http://elementscommunity.org/forum/brawl-auct...
[2019-06-14 13:06:02] ‹ddevans96› yes - would force mafia to choose between MW and kae \
[2019-06-14 13:06:43] ‹ddevans96› and even day 4 would accomplish that, while also giving us two confirmed civvies to listen to (and we don't even necessarily need to kill Espi immediately, we can try to fish out anbnother)
[2019-06-14 13:06:51] ‹ddevans96› 'anbnother' good stuff
[2019-06-14 13:07:04] ‹Calindu› Yeah, so anyway, what's the play? No lynch, lynch on mathman, lynch on Ginyu, or something else?
[2019-06-14 13:08:01] ‹Calindu› There's no guarantee that MW lives N4, we get to lynch Espithel, but we'd have no confirmed civvy
[2019-06-14 13:08:10] ‹shockcannon› i say we go all in on it being ginyu and mathman
[2019-06-14 13:08:16] ‹ddevans96› we'd have kae confirmed
[2019-06-14 13:10:05] ‹Calindu› Ah, yeah, sorry, thought it was N4 followed by D4 for a second
[2019-06-14 13:14:56] ‹Submachine›
[2019-06-14 13:15:24] ‹Submachine› Do not forget to log all this please.
[2019-06-14 13:15:34] ‹ddevans96› yeah, will do
[2019-06-14 13:15:45] ‹Submachine› Cool. :)
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Offline Ginyu

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Re: Elements Mafia 71 - by Submachine http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=67178.msg1290921#msg1290921
« Reply #944 on: June 14, 2019, 08:11:59 pm »
It's a series of tradeoffs. If we lynch on 4v2, the worst case scenario is that we lose the game immediately. We have to kill a mafia, and 2/6 of the people are mafia - 4v2 is pretty hard to sort out.

If we No Lynch and go 3v2 we are guaranteed to live (barring modkill or kill roles ofc). Mafia does indeed have more voting power, but in exchange, 3v2 is easier to sort out and kill a mafia because of that higher ratio, as well.

If we do successfully lynch on 4v2, it becomes 3v1 - in which case we have the same situation, we can go for the kill, or no lynch and guarantee another round. In that situation, 3v1 is usually not too bad to sort out, so if you take the risk of not making it to that point and succeed, setting up this choice can be very favorable.

If you lynch in 3v2, or no lynch in 3v1, it becomes 2v1, which is one of the easiest things to solve unless an extremely skilled and/or information-rich mafia is in play. That scenario can be setup either way.

To be clear, I don't think lynching is the incorrect play, it's just the riskier one.

I see several flaws here. First, you cannot expect to get all town to vote on the same player. Who would lead that lynch and the mob? How can we be sure we are not following a mafia?
Also, with shock being a potential town on mafia's side, they might have the majority on their side.

shock hurt town all game very aggressively without any real defense.

So did IW. We lynched for that, and he flipped town. The differences are shock provided way more logic in exchange for him fakeclaiming a role that was already essentially confirmed, given that MW had already breadcrumbed it.

Just because it did not work once, does not mean it never works.
If there are two men trying to kill someone, and the first one is failing, do you sit back guessing the other will fail too?

Also, "essentially confirmed" is a very bold claim. It was possible, but not at all that obvious. If it was, mafia would have killed him way earlier. Yes, Espi would have died earlier too, but that does not make much of a difference unless he had a good role for mafia, which he did not. In any way, what was his fake claim even supposed to mean if you consider that an obvious lie from the get-go?
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Re: Elements Mafia 71 - by Submachine http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=67178.msg1290923#msg1290923
« Reply #945 on: June 14, 2019, 08:48:12 pm »
@Calindu, what I'm about to do may seem scummy and may make it look like both myself and ddevans could be mafia. However, I'm going to assume that you feel strongly about AT LEAST 1 mafia being among mathman and Ginyu. If this does reflect what you believe, then I'm willing to vote on whoever you vote on. You can choose between mathman and Ginyu and I'll support your choice. Otherwise I'm going to vote no lynch and just hope town can win a 3 vs. 2 situation.


Also, if you think I'm truly mafia, then go for it, but don't just join a vote on me because others are going for it. Mafia is going to be desperately trying to survive this day phase, because if they do they win. So they're going to target whoever they think is easiest to get town votes on.


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Re: Elements Mafia 71 - by Submachine http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=67178.msg1290924#msg1290924
« Reply #946 on: June 14, 2019, 09:07:59 pm »
Just because it did not work once, does not mean it never works.
If there are two men trying to kill someone, and the first one is failing, do you sit back guessing the other will fail too?

Yes, I agree. That's not my point.

My point is, so many people want shock dead for 'bad town play' when most of the players alive now - myself included, to be quite honest - and several dead players have exhibited 'bad town play'. So why is shock being singled out? This doesn't really clear him in any way, for what it's worth - mafia could be hard bussing and confident they can control endgame even if shock is dead. We spend a lynch on their least useful living member. But if he's town, I think mafia wants him dead, because it's become clear that if a lynch is started on him at this point in the game, it'll be followed. Mafia wants to push easy lynches on town in endgame.

Quote
Also, "essentially confirmed" is a very bold claim. It was possible, but not at all that obvious. If it was, mafia would have killed him way earlier. Yes, Espi would have died earlier too, but that does not make much of a difference unless he had a good role for mafia, which he did not.

It makes a huge difference. Going down a mafia early gives town more information to work with earlier than any town lynch does early. And why sacrifice Espi early when you can kill three town because you have the one player everyone on these forums implicitly trusts without deeper thought?

I guarantee mafia knew MW was GN long before he claimed it. Espi basically said 'finally, you claimed what we already knew' and MW posted a picture of his ability. Mafia already had a gameplan - play around Link, make me look suspicious, sow chaos in town - and they stuck to it.

Quote
In any way, what was his fake claim even supposed to mean if you consider that an obvious lie from the get-go?

I assume he was trying to bait Link, and failed. Link is too high of a caliber of player to be baited in the way shock intended, and additionally had at least one very strong player (Espi) on his team to bounce strategy and counterplay off of. For that reason, it was absolutely a dumb and risky gambit. But I disagree that it was 'soliciting a GN counterclaim' or 'trolling' or (paraphrasing earlier posts) 'catastrophic for town' because mafia absolutely already knew the GN.

I see several flaws here. First, you cannot expect to get all town to vote on the same player. Who would lead that lynch and the mob? How can we be sure we are not following a mafia?

All correct - but all of these scenarios apply to 4v2 as well as 3v2, just less so. It is is a point in favor of lynching, but it's still not a clear better choice. There's major pros and cons of both.
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Re: Elements Mafia 71 - by Submachine http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=67178.msg1290925#msg1290925
« Reply #947 on: June 14, 2019, 09:09:16 pm »
To be clear, I'm not defending shock, he's just as likely to be mafia as basically everyone else. I'm just trying to get town to think about all possibilities, because the game is lost if we lynch town. If we do lynch, we have to lynch correctly.
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