Author

InsignificantWeeaboo · « **Reply #936 on:** June 13, 2019, 07:57:06 pm »

you dun goofed again, shock

Submachine · « **Reply #937 on:** June 14, 2019, 06:22:53 pm »

Day 7

Mobian died. He was an Elemental and an Amber Nymph.

People in danger of modkill: Ginyu

Day 7 has ended.

shockcannon · « **Reply #938 on:** June 14, 2019, 06:27:13 pm »

lol mafia just threw.

ddevans96 · « **Reply #939 on:** June 14, 2019, 06:28:40 pm »

No Lynch (1) - ddevans96

May deviate, but this is the safe option.

Ginyu · « **Reply #940 on:** June 14, 2019, 06:43:44 pm »

Mind to elaborate why we should not lynch?
While not lynching will not lose us the game immediately, by tomorrow mafia will have a 40 % rate in the voting, while today it is only 33 %. Also, some might not be voting.

Talking about voting, I am ready to vote today.

Ginyu · « **Reply #941 on:** June 14, 2019, 07:09:47 pm »

No Lynch (1) - ddevans96
shockcannon (1) - Ginyu

Obvious one, although I am hesitent to move to dd. shock hurt town all game very aggressively without any real defense. Interestingly enough, the one who kept covering him was dd, only pointing out "nah, just bad town, just how he plays, I believe him". I already said how ridiculous of a defense that is, but they seem to have been married by now, looking through recent chat logs (yes, I did check them this morning after seeing like 20 pings, and yes that does include the one you did not post, nice try to hide that).

Overall, there is a chance shock was simply trolling for the point of trolling and eventually started caring about the game, but dd considered him easy prey, as defending him would get mafia another vote under their belt. For now, shock (or both) seem more likely, however.

ddevans96 · « **Reply #942 on:** June 14, 2019, 07:25:06 pm »

I guess I keep quoting it, so here's a relevant snippet from mafiascum's wiki:

Quote

While the opportunity for No Lynch is available in MyLo, whether it should be done is a different question. On the upside, by refusing to lynch the Town may be able to give its investigative roles another chance to work their magic. On the downside, if the Town has already massclaimed or if there are no roles that can make use of the Night remaining, opting not to lynch will simply give the scum a free kill on the Townie who is most likely to help the Town lynch correctly at LyLo.

It's a series of tradeoffs. If we lynch on 4v2, the worst case scenario is that we lose the game immediately. We have to kill a mafia, and 2/6 of the people are mafia - 4v2 is pretty hard to sort out.

If we No Lynch and go 3v2 we are guaranteed to live (barring modkill or kill roles ofc). Mafia does indeed have more voting power, but in exchange, 3v2 is easier to sort out and kill a mafia because of that higher ratio, as well.

If we do successfully lynch on 4v2, it becomes 3v1 - in which case we have the same situation, we can go for the kill, or no lynch and guarantee another round. In that situation, 3v1 is usually not too bad to sort out, so if you take the risk of not making it to that point and succeed, setting up this choice can be very favorable.

If you lynch in 3v2, or no lynch in 3v1, it becomes 2v1, which is one of the easiest things to solve unless an extremely skilled and/or information-rich mafia is in play. That scenario can be setup either way.

To be clear, I don't think lynching is the incorrect play, it's just the riskier one.

Quote from: Ginyu on June 14, 2019, 07:09:47 pm

shock hurt town all game very aggressively without any real defense.

So did IW. We lynched for that, and he flipped town. The differences are shock provided way more logic in exchange for him fakeclaiming a role that was already essentially confirmed, given that MW had already breadcrumbed it.

Quote

Interestingly enough, the one who kept covering him was dd, only pointing out "nah, just bad town, just how he plays, I believe him". I already said how ridiculous of a defense that is, but they seem to have been married by now, looking through recent chat logs (yes, I did check them this morning after seeing like 20 pings, and yes that does include the one you did not post, nice try to hide that).

As I have said about 20 times, this is never an excuse or a townread I used. This was something Link was saying, not me. My town read on shock (which no longer exists, and hasn't for some time) was never related to his style of play. Keep in mind I spotted Link due to what I would call 'bad town' (and to reiterate, I hate that term), and also read IW as 'bad town' for roleblocking even more than shock did.

And I've posted chat logs or asked someone to post them for me if I was unable pretty much every time a long conversation has occurred. I have probably been the most mindful of chatlogs. I have not attempted to hide anything - I would guess that most of the chatlogs did not include me, or someone didn't log after I asked.

Quote

Overall, there is a chance shock was simply trolling for the point of trolling and eventually started caring about the game, but dd considered him easy prey, as defending him would get mafia another vote under their belt. For now, shock (or both) seem more likely, however.

Playing rogue isn't troling, especially when everyone else playing by the book blindly followed Link, an obvious mafia, and got three townies killed. The GN fakeclaim didn't even matter, MW was very likely GN, due to the circumstances of d1 and his breadcrumb (and ultimately, I think he missed the optimal timing to claim anyways, at a time when shock's fakeclaim was no longer relevant and there was no 'pressure' to counterclaim)

ddevans96 · « **Reply #943 on:** June 14, 2019, 07:30:07 pm »

Spoiler for Chat Log, 1830 GMT (regarding: Cal and I have a much more civil conversation than yesterday - no lynch vs lynch, and who we should lynch - predicting NK - timing / foreshadowing / aftermath of MW's GN claim):

Ginyu · « **Reply #944 on:** June 14, 2019, 08:11:59 pm »

Quote from: ddevans96 on June 14, 2019, 07:25:06 pm

It's a series of tradeoffs. If we lynch on 4v2, the worst case scenario is that we lose the game immediately. We have to kill a mafia, and 2/6 of the people are mafia - 4v2 is pretty hard to sort out.

If we No Lynch and go 3v2 we are guaranteed to live (barring modkill or kill roles ofc). Mafia does indeed have more voting power, but in exchange, 3v2 is easier to sort out and kill a mafia because of that higher ratio, as well.

If we do successfully lynch on 4v2, it becomes 3v1 - in which case we have the same situation, we can go for the kill, or no lynch and guarantee another round. In that situation, 3v1 is usually not too bad to sort out, so if you take the risk of not making it to that point and succeed, setting up this choice can be very favorable.

If you lynch in 3v2, or no lynch in 3v1, it becomes 2v1, which is one of the easiest things to solve unless an extremely skilled and/or information-rich mafia is in play. That scenario can be setup either way.

To be clear, I don't think lynching is the incorrect play, it's just the riskier one.

I see several flaws here. First, you cannot expect to get all town to vote on the same player. Who would lead that lynch and the mob? How can we be sure we are not following a mafia?
Also, with shock being a potential town on mafia's side, they might have the majority on their side.

Quote from: ddevans96 on June 14, 2019, 07:25:06 pm

Quote from: Ginyu on June 14, 2019, 07:09:47 pm
shock hurt town all game very aggressively without any real defense.

So did IW. We lynched for that, and he flipped town. The differences are shock provided way more logic in exchange for him fakeclaiming a role that was already essentially confirmed, given that MW had already breadcrumbed it.

Just because it did not work once, does not mean it never works.
If there are two men trying to kill someone, and the first one is failing, do you sit back guessing the other will fail too?

Also, "essentially confirmed" is a very bold claim. It was possible, but not at all that obvious. If it was, mafia would have killed him way earlier. Yes, Espi would have died earlier too, but that does not make much of a difference unless he had a good role for mafia, which he did not. In any way, what was his fake claim even supposed to mean if you consider that an obvious lie from the get-go?

shockcannon · « **Reply #945 on:** June 14, 2019, 08:48:12 pm »

@Calindu, what I'm about to do may seem scummy and may make it look like both myself and ddevans could be mafia. However, I'm going to assume that you feel strongly about AT LEAST 1 mafia being among mathman and Ginyu. If this does reflect what you believe, then I'm willing to vote on whoever you vote on. You can choose between mathman and Ginyu and I'll support your choice. Otherwise I'm going to vote no lynch and just hope town can win a 3 vs. 2 situation.

Also, if you think I'm truly mafia, then go for it, but don't just join a vote on me because others are going for it. Mafia is going to be desperately trying to survive this day phase, because if they do they win. So they're going to target whoever they think is easiest to get town votes on.

ddevans96 · « **Reply #946 on:** June 14, 2019, 09:07:59 pm »

Quote from: Ginyu on June 14, 2019, 08:11:59 pm

Just because it did not work once, does not mean it never works.
If there are two men trying to kill someone, and the first one is failing, do you sit back guessing the other will fail too?

Yes, I agree. That's not my point.

My point is, so many people want shock dead for 'bad town play' when most of the players alive now - myself included, to be quite honest - and several dead players have exhibited 'bad town play'. So why is shock being singled out? This doesn't really clear him in any way, for what it's worth - mafia could be hard bussing and confident they can control endgame even if shock is dead. We spend a lynch on their least useful living member. But if he's town, I think mafia wants him dead, because it's become clear that if a lynch is started on him at this point in the game, it'll be followed. Mafia wants to push easy lynches on town in endgame.

Quote

Also, "essentially confirmed" is a very bold claim. It was possible, but not at all that obvious. If it was, mafia would have killed him way earlier. Yes, Espi would have died earlier too, but that does not make much of a difference unless he had a good role for mafia, which he did not.

It makes a huge difference. Going down a mafia early gives town more information to work with earlier than any town lynch does early. And why sacrifice Espi early when you can kill three town because you have the one player everyone on these forums implicitly trusts without deeper thought?

I guarantee mafia knew MW was GN long before he claimed it. Espi basically said 'finally, you claimed what we already knew' and MW posted a picture of his ability. Mafia already had a gameplan - play around Link, make me look suspicious, sow chaos in town - and they stuck to it.

Quote

In any way, what was his fake claim even supposed to mean if you consider that an obvious lie from the get-go?

I assume he was trying to bait Link, and failed. Link is too high of a caliber of player to be baited in the way shock intended, and additionally had at least one very strong player (Espi) on his team to bounce strategy and counterplay off of. For that reason, it was absolutely a dumb and risky gambit. But I disagree that it was 'soliciting a GN counterclaim' or 'trolling' or (paraphrasing earlier posts) 'catastrophic for town' because mafia absolutely already knew the GN.

Quote from: Ginyu on June 14, 2019, 08:11:59 pm

I see several flaws here. First, you cannot expect to get all town to vote on the same player. Who would lead that lynch and the mob? How can we be sure we are not following a mafia?

All correct - but all of these scenarios apply to 4v2 as well as 3v2, just less so. It is is a point in favor of lynching, but it's still not a clear better choice. There's major pros and cons of both.

ddevans96 · « **Reply #947 on:** June 14, 2019, 09:09:16 pm »

To be clear, I'm not defending shock, he's just as likely to be mafia as basically everyone else. I'm just trying to get town to think about all possibilities, because the game is lost if we lynch town. If we do lynch, we have to lynch correctly.

Poll

Who played the best mafia?

Author

InsignificantWeeaboo

Re: Elements Mafia 71 - by Submachine https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=67178.msg1290882#msg1290882

Submachine

Re: Elements Mafia 71 - by Submachine https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=67178.msg1290910#msg1290910

shockcannon

Re: Elements Mafia 71 - by Submachine https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=67178.msg1290911#msg1290911

ddevans96

Re: Elements Mafia 71 - by Submachine https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=67178.msg1290912#msg1290912

Ginyu

Re: Elements Mafia 71 - by Submachine https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=67178.msg1290913#msg1290913

Ginyu

Re: Elements Mafia 71 - by Submachine https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=67178.msg1290915#msg1290915

ddevans96

Re: Elements Mafia 71 - by Submachine https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=67178.msg1290917#msg1290917

ddevans96

Re: Elements Mafia 71 - by Submachine https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=67178.msg1290919#msg1290919

Ginyu

Re: Elements Mafia 71 - by Submachine https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=67178.msg1290921#msg1290921

shockcannon

Re: Elements Mafia 71 - by Submachine https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=67178.msg1290923#msg1290923

ddevans96

Re: Elements Mafia 71 - by Submachine https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=67178.msg1290924#msg1290924

ddevans96

Re: Elements Mafia 71 - by Submachine https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=67178.msg1290925#msg1290925