Elements Mafia 71 - by Submachine

[Linkcat]

I'm about to leave so I'll make this quick.

Then your reads are bad. You basically said as much yourself - your reads are flawed, in that you currently have no mafia reads. You are coming to a conclusion when you know the premises leading to it are flawed.

I never said my reads are flawed. I said it was a problem that I didn't have any strong scumreads, because that makes it less likely that I would get a mafia lynched. Just because I didn't have any mafia reads doesn't mean my town reads are bad. I've always been way better at town reads then mafia reads. If at any point during any game you guys don't want to lynch my scumreads, at least don't lynch my townreads either. There was plenty of room in my reads list for a mafia team, it was just hard to pinpoint since there were a lot of people that haven't had many interactions. Now that I examined the votes, a clearer picture began to emerge.

Why would mafia want to lynch [he said in chat he meant to say lynch instead of NK] me when I'm under suspicion every day? They can just let town continue to run circles around themselves and let town waste a round trying to lynch me, and inevitably allowing me to push a lynch elsewhere to save myself, that they can then influence if there are multiple other viable options.

Because you'd figure them out sooner or later, and it looks like they're focusing their NKs on the GN and you claimed Anubis so they wouldn't spend a kill on you.

Also, I want to address this in thread, because I was frustrated about it in chat the other day - to the person/peoples who apparently thought that the first NK not going through and then me pushing the lynch to a GA was a scumread on me - that would be a horrible play for any mafia to make.

Agreed. You just wanted to lynch anyone but you, and JCJ ended up being the one people were willing to go for.

I don't agree. I think mafia has had a hand in influencing both lynches, which would suggest they're fairly active, with one low-activity player at most.

This makes sense from your point of view if you're town. If you flip that way then I'll definitely have to reconsider this.

Also, I will point out that if I do flip town, your read on kae will have gone mafia, to town, to mafia again. I won't say this is terribly relevant, as a player of your caliber will know not to flip reads so suddenly without good reason, but I want to note it regardless.

I have my reasons.

Additionally - Linkcat, do you deny that it has, in the past, been a feature of your playstyle to, within the boundaries of supporting your team, play in a way that serves to create situations for your own amusement?

It would be amusing to make a denial here, but I 100% do this.

[MasterWalks]

Also, can I get a tl;dr of the chat logs in Link's post?

His first spoiler is pretty much nothing. Its about me complaining about posting stuff and finding about a mistake in my TL:DR. shock and Cal argue about what it means to be "bad town". Thats it.

Second spoiler is about kaempf and shock arguing about statistics and how no lynch is or is not good. (shock says no lynch is good, kaempf says lynch is good). This goes on for a good while. It evolves into what is optimal play for mafia and town but still maintains the statistics stuff.

Third spoiler I highly suggest reading. It deep dives on a lot of peoples scum reads and town reads. shock starts talking about switching vote targets. Its a short read but pretty informative.

Spoiler for Links post for convenience :

Spoiler for Continued from previous, you can skip this:

[17:23:43] ‹Calindu› Shock
[17:24:39] ‹Linkcat› Well I guess it's time to look at the vote log.
[17:25:18] ‹Calindu› But mostly because I find his play detrimental
[17:27:42] ‹shockcannon› i might have to make a post
[17:27:45] ‹shockcannon› even though I said I wouldn't
[17:27:59] ‹shockcannon› just to highlight the logical fallacies that calindu and root use to base all their arguments
[17:28:22] ‹MasterWalks› shit
[17:28:22] ‹shockcannon› although i suppose they could both be mafia
[17:28:29] ‹MasterWalks› i cant post chat log
[17:28:37] ‹MasterWalks› hit character limit
[17:28:45] ‹shockcannon› and using my "bad town" play as an excuse to lynch another town and keep attention away from mafia members
[17:29:10] ‹Calindu› I don't know if you are bad town or aggro mafia
[17:29:27] ‹shockcannon› same for you
[17:29:58] ‹shockcannon› You keep bringing up optimal strategy and assuming players are making the best possible moves
[17:30:15] ‹shockcannon› yet you support lynch every day, which I can mathematically prove is NOT optimal based on the strategy you describe as optimal
[17:31:20] ‹Calindu› I support lynch everyday because not lynching brings us 0 info and we lose a player to the night kill
[17:31:27] ‹shockcannon› lynching every day IS optimal if you
[17:31:39] ‹shockcannon› take "reads" into account
[17:31:44] ‹shockcannon› but you and root don't seem to value that
[17:31:58] ‹shockcannon› lynching every day brings 0 info as well
[17:32:06] ‹shockcannon› using the logic you use
[17:32:27] ‹shockcannon› if town plays optimally
[17:32:40] ‹shockcannon› then the optimal mafia play would be to use no abilities and talk just enough to not be modkilled
[17:32:53] ‹shockcannon› and to not vote
[17:33:04] ‹shockcannon› and if this happens, then lynching every day offers nothing
[17:33:04] ‹Linkcat› That's the optimal play if you want town to lose lol.
[17:33:10] ‹MasterWalks› gad damnit. I ended up having to edit out all the soccer stuff
[17:33:17] ‹Calindu› I might not have the best reads, and I might have strong opinions, but no way is forcing role claims and lying better
[17:33:17] ‹MasterWalks› Its posted tho
[17:33:45] ‹MasterWalks› AND there is a big ass youtube link in the middle
[17:33:51] ‹shockcannon› forcing role claims and lying alllows for reads to be used
[17:34:12] ‹shockcannon› i'm just making a post
[17:34:23] ‹shockcannon› if you want to argue statistics afterwards and look like a fool sure
[17:35:41] ‹Calindu› ‹@MasterWalks› I didn't say I can't do scumreads, I said I didn't have a read list and most of my list would lean town
[17:35:41] ‹MasterWalks› character limit is 65,000 characters if anyone wanted to know
[17:35:42] ‹kaempfer13› allowing lyers to live makes for reads to be way harder
[17:36:15] ‹MasterWalks› ‹@Calindu› wait, were you not the one that was all about that 50% town/mafia thing?
[17:36:50] ‹Calindu› ‹@MasterWalks› No, I don't remember saying anything like that
[17:36:50] ‹MasterWalks› shit, my bad. That was a lot to cover. You can go in and correct it in EBWOP.
[17:37:05] ‹MasterWalks› im getting root, you, and coffee all mixed up
[17:37:33] ‹MasterWalks› I was more worried about the character limit so i made the TL:DR as short as i could.
[17:37:49] ‹MasterWalks› Got names mixed up obv
[17:38:02] ‹Calindu› Yeah, no worries, mistakes happen
[17:38:53] ‹Calindu› Was worried you misunderstood me and people would just base everything off the TL;DR
[17:39:44] ‹MasterWalks› No it was root or coffee that was talking about 50% stuff. Ive been staring at this damn computer screen for like 9 hours straight. My brain is all jumbled
[17:40:01] ‹MasterWalks› And standing the whole time too since im at work
[17:41:12] ‹Coffeeditto› not me
[17:41:14] ‹Linkcat› It was Root.
[17:41:16] ‹Coffeeditto› I don't work in percentages

Spoiler for Arguing about shock's post. You can skip this, my lines are the only ones that matter:

[17:41:44] ‹shockcannon› i'm about to destroy root right now
[17:41:47] ‹shockcannon› half way through the post
[17:41:50] ‹shockcannon› hold on a few more minutes
[17:48:09] ‹MasterWalks› ‹@Calindu› Did the EBWOP
[17:48:39] ‹Calindu› ‹@MasterWalks› Cheers
[17:48:52] ‹kaempfer13› root said that there is no way to be more than 50% sure someone is mafia unless you are gn or town follows a strict ruleset that someone breaks (requires full cooperation) (the latter part was added by me, but i thinkit was implied)
[17:51:17] ‹MasterWalks› 10 more min and get to go home to stare at the computer again, only this time i can lay down. Two hips and a hooray
[17:54:24] ‹shockcannon› alsoo
[17:54:26] ‹shockcannon› when i post this
[17:54:28] ‹shockcannon› please read it
[17:54:35] ‹shockcannon› it seems a lot of you just don't read my posts
[17:54:37] ‹shockcannon› like root
[17:54:50] ‹shockcannon› where I already answered half the things he asked about today in my post yesterday
[17:58:08] ‹Calindu› I'll read it tomorrow, it's 2 am here and I'm going to sleep
[18:00:22] ‹shockcannon› i'm actually pretty frustrating with a lot of people
[18:00:34] ‹shockcannon› if you wanna lynch me for being chaotic
[18:00:36] ‹shockcannon› just say that
[18:00:46] ‹shockcannon› but don't use logical fallacies as your excuse for doing so
[18:29:42] ‹shockcannon› alright posted
[18:29:48] ‹shockcannon› knock yourselves out kids
[18:29:58] ‹shockcannon› ‹@kaempfer13› i suggest you read
[18:30:10] ‹shockcannon› maybe you'll stop being brainwashed by calindu and rootranger
[18:34:24] ‹Espithel› This is pretty meek.
[18:43:30] ‹shockcannon› also
[18:43:32] ‹shockcannon› if anyone wants to league
[18:43:36] ‹shockcannon› let me know
[18:45:35] ‹kaempfer13› meh, nothing much new and the correct conclusion is that lynch is far preferable over no lynch
[18:46:11] ‹kaempfer13› even if that by itself wont playout well
[18:46:16] ‹shockcannon› if you're assuming optimal play its not
[18:46:33] ‹shockcannon› lynching every day is fine for gaining info to create reads
[18:46:56] ‹shockcannon› but there's like 3 or 4 players here who insist on optimal town play, and that DOES NOT call for lynch every day
[18:46:59] ‹kaempfer13› if we assume optimal play only 1.5 roles matter for identifying
[18:47:17] ‹shockcannon› there are a lot of people here though who are assuming optimal play
[18:47:22] ‹shockcannon› and want town to do "optimal play"
[18:47:35] ‹kaempfer13› so that will never work out without the random successfull lynch
[18:47:36] ‹shockcannon› which would result in a 4 page thread with no interacting
[18:48:13] ‹shockcannon› random lynch just speeds things up for mafia
[18:48:24] ‹shockcannon› random lynching reduces the player count quicker
[18:48:39] ‹shockcannon› which gives golden nymph significantly knowledge
[18:48:48] ‹shockcannon› *significantly less knowledge
[18:48:58] ‹kaempfer13› random lynch is the most likely way to catch mafia
[18:49:01] ‹shockcannon› and increases the chances the golden nymph targets are killed before golden nymph can find 2-4 mafia
[18:49:33] ‹Linkcat› What shock is describing is exactly what would happen if 17 RootRangers played a game of mafia.
[18:49:49] ‹shockcannon› random lynch is the equally likely of a method to catching mafia as golden nymph
[18:49:57] ‹shockcannon› but it also works against the golden nymph mechanic
[18:49:59] ‹shockcannon› so yes
[18:50:04] ‹shockcannon› random lynch helps find mafia
[18:50:07] ‹shockcannon› but it hurts golden nymph
[18:50:10] ‹kaempfer13› golden nymph identifies half as many people as die, so counting on her is a losing play
[18:50:15] ‹shockcannon› so you're just losing what you gain
[18:50:42] ‹shockcannon› lynching every day means golden nymph identifies a quarter as many people as die
[18:50:53] ‹shockcannon› which is an even more losing play
[18:51:09] ‹Espithel› I'm really busy right now, so I'll address this in full later.
[18:51:48] ‹shockcannon› ALSO random lynching has the added negative of potentially voting up GN and either killing GN or forcing GN to reveal, which is killing GN
[18:51:50] ‹kaempfer13› yes, youre gonna want to get 1, maybe 2 lynches out of gn reveal and the rest has ro work out randomöy/through slipups
[18:52:17] ‹shockcannon› ‹@kaempfer13› exactly
[18:52:31] ‹shockcannon› but random lynching reduces the chances of GN find even 1 or 2 mafia
[18:52:38] ‹shockcannon› which means that the entire game becomes random lynching
[18:52:47] ‹shockcannon› so if you prefer that over the GN finds 1-2 mafia and then you do random
[18:52:48] ‹shockcannon› then sure
[18:52:55] ‹Espithel› But put simply, you argue that people should use tons of skills because, otherwise, the optimal mafia strat is to do nothing and say nothing.
[18:52:58] ‹kaempfer13› but not taking the shot while you have it is def a waste
[18:53:08] ‹Espithel› With no lynching, the same argument applies - the optimal mafia strat is to do nothing and say nothing.
[18:53:47] ‹kaempfer13› basically gn takes a lynchshot that most of the time will hit town just as well, just doesnt kill regardless of whether they hit mafia or not
[18:54:09] ‹shockcannon› ‹@Espithel› I just want to address people who are making claims about optimal strategy and then using logical fallacies in the midst
[18:54:41] ‹shockcannon› I really don't have the time, but if we assume optimal mafia and town play, no lynching is statistically the better option
[18:54:54] ‹shockcannon› I'm not going to waste my time running statistics that you guys won't even believe
[18:55:04] ‹shockcannon› but I made my point
[18:55:11] ‹shockcannon› this point isn't even related to me playing the mafia game
[18:55:40] ‹shockcannon› it's just people arguing false statistics
[18:55:53] ‹kaempfer13› so gn is half as powerfull as the regular lynch and everything else doesnt matter except for psychology
[18:56:24] ‹kaempfer13› ‹@shockcannon› gn can hot town and die before reveal you know
[18:56:46] ‹shockcannon› obviously
[18:56:53] ‹shockcannon› it's statistics
[18:56:56] ‹kaempfer13› and her odds are about the same as the lynch
[18:56:57] ‹shockcannon› anything is possible
[18:57:25] ‹shockcannon› random lynch is random
[18:57:29] ‹kaempfer13› but we get the lynch every round
[18:57:36] ‹shockcannon› GN is not random, and the only way that town gets any info
[18:57:46] ‹shockcannon› the more you lynch, the less GN you get
[18:57:53] ‹shockcannon› would you rather have more random, or less random?
[18:57:57] ‹MasterWalks› GN doesnt win the game
[18:58:07] ‹MasterWalks› You can lose GN N0 and still win
[18:58:11] ‹shockcannon› obviously gn doesn't win the game
[18:58:23] ‹shockcannon› do you guys get how statistics works?
[18:58:37] ‹shockcannon› you can also have GN never get killed and find all 4 mafia
[18:58:38] ‹MasterWalks› no
[18:58:50] ‹shockcannon›
[18:59:05] ‹shockcannon› i have an equal chance of rolling five 1s and five 9s
[18:59:15] ‹shockcannon› that doesn't make either of them likely
[18:59:41] ‹MasterWalks› rolling a 4, 9, 7, 5, 9 is also not likely
[18:59:45] ‹MasterWalks› but you just did it
[18:59:56] ‹MasterWalks› that couldve been a mafia lynch
[18:59:57] ‹shockcannon› its about odds
[19:00:00] ‹Espithel› ow
[19:00:03] ‹shockcannon› optimal play is about what happens the most
[19:00:04] ‹Espithel› ow that hurt walks
[19:00:46] ‹MasterWalks› ‹@Espithel› im sowy, i wont huwt you no mowre uwu
[19:00:51] ‹MasterWalks› that hurt to type
[19:00:57] ‹shockcannon› @anyone who wants to argue about optimal play: do some googling on how statistics works a bit
[19:01:31] ‹shockcannon› Optimal play is going to fail plenty of times
[19:01:39] ‹MasterWalks› What are the statistics google brings up the page i want about statistics?
[19:01:39] ‹shockcannon› but it's going to fail less than other strategies
[19:01:52] ‹kaempfer13› ‹@shockcannon› yes, I get how statistic works (I study it) and lynching is the right play
[19:02:20] ‹shockcannon› ‹@kaempfer13› okay
[19:02:25] ‹shockcannon› let's assume optimal play
[19:02:31] ‹shockcannon› lynching just gives us a shot at killing mafia
[19:02:49] ‹shockcannon› what the player turns after lynch means NOTHING because optimal play doesn't involve reads
[19:03:01] ‹kaempfer13› assuming gn lives until revealing!) no lynch=2deaths between a shot at mafia
[19:03:34] ‹MasterWalks› not lynching guarantees we dont kill a mafia
[19:03:58] ‹kaempfer13› lynch: 1 and a half deaths between a shot at mafia
[19:03:59] ‹shockcannon› not lyching gives GN more time, which is the only non-random factor in the game
[19:04:24] ‹MasterWalks› but keeps the chances of them finding mafia, which is just as low as lynching mafia
[19:04:49] ‹MasterWalks› Gn finding mafia is literally the same chance as lynching a mafia
[19:05:39] ‹shockcannon› its not
[19:05:54] ‹shockcannon› asssuming 19 people alive
[19:05:58] ‹shockcannon› GN has 1/18 shot
[19:06:03] ‹shockcannon› sorry
[19:06:04] ‹shockcannon› 4/18
[19:06:10] ‹shockcannon› if you lynch with 19 people alive
[19:06:12] ‹shockcannon› town has 4/19
[19:06:14] ‹kaempfer13› well mafia can modify those odds at first, but that will expose them later and is pretty much the whole point of the game
[19:06:18] ‹shockcannon› because town will be voting on each other
[19:06:21] ‹shockcannon› GN will never search itself
[19:06:36] ‹shockcannon› ‹@kaempfer13› mafia doesn't need to modify those odds
[19:06:51] ‹shockcannon› those odds are already above 50% for them to win
[19:07:01] ‹shockcannon› they just play the odds every game and they win more than they lose
[19:07:13] ‹kaempfer13› townfolk well never vote on themselves either other than us placeholder
[19:07:18] ‹MasterWalks› If i was GN, i would search myself to find out who i really am.
[19:07:27] ‹shockcannon› ‹@kaempfer13› but other town will vote on other town
[19:07:40] ‹shockcannon› so 14/19 players are non-GN, non mafia
[19:07:44] ‹shockcannon› they will vote completely randomly
[19:07:57] ‹shockcannon› GN will never wsate a seearch on themselves
[19:08:05] ‹kaempfer13› ‹@shockcannon› yes but each town will not vote themselves, so its still same odds
[19:08:06] ‹MasterWalks› but its not random
[19:08:19] ‹MasterWalks› its based around reads
[19:08:39] ‹kaempfer13› above response was just typed slowly and followup to what i said, not reaction to you
[19:08:53] ‹shockcannon› ‹@MasterWalks› did you even read my post
[19:09:01] ‹shockcannon› That's what i'm arguing in my post
[19:09:05] ‹MasterWalks› i skimmed it
[19:09:17] ‹Espithel› ow
[19:09:19] ‹Espithel› ow
[19:09:21] ‹Espithel› Walks please
[19:09:25] ‹Espithel› ow
[19:09:42] ‹shockcannon› ‹@kaempfer13› its not the same odds
[19:09:49] ‹shockcannon› in a lynch, all 19 players are fair game
[19:09:57] ‹shockcannon› at night, only 18 players are fair game for GN search
[19:10:06] ‹kaempfer13› no, you yourselves are not
[19:10:09] ‹shockcannon› ADDITIONALLY
[19:10:24] ‹shockcannon› if GN knows players that are alive and their primary role
[19:10:29] ‹shockcannon› GN odds increase as time goes on
[19:10:41] ‹kaempfer13› just because another town may vote you doesnt mean that they in turn would vote themselves
[19:10:42] ‹shockcannon› ‹@kaempfer13› i realize that
[19:10:56] ‹shockcannon› you're thinking about it from a single player's point of view
[19:11:07] ‹shockcannon› think of it overall
[19:11:23] ‹shockcannon› during the day, the odds a mafia gets voted up is 4/19
[19:11:28] ‹shockcannon› 19 players are fair game for voting
[19:11:35] ‹kaempfer13› if each town only has to look at 18 players, all of them do
[19:11:56] ‹kaempfer13› its so obvious its almost circular logic
[19:13:12] ‹shockcannon› yes
[19:13:23] ‹shockcannon› but we're assuming all players vote randomly on someone not themselves
[19:13:35] ‹shockcannon› this also leaves room for a two top voted players to tie
[19:13:39] ‹shockcannon› which would lead to no lynch
[19:13:57] ‹shockcannon› and if everyone revotes between the tied players, that's changing the odds
[19:14:10] ‹shockcannon› ALSO, GN has odds to be voted up, which then loses any advantage you had
[19:14:23] ‹shockcannon› and makes it all ENTIRELY random
[19:14:25] ‹Linkcat› ‹@MasterWalks› The entire point of his post is that if everyone didn't try to make reads and played like Root wants us to play, then the game would be stupid and boring, so we shouldn't play that way.
[19:14:40] ‹MasterWalks› Oh
[19:14:45] ‹MasterWalks› well i agree with shock then
[19:16:53] ‹Espithel› I am rubbing off on Walks way too much
[19:16:55] ‹Espithel› I need to stop
[19:18:42] ‹kaempfer13› ‹@shockcannon› tiebreaking doesnt change the odds so long as its done randomly and gn ability only gets marginally better post n3 (assuming no blocks) than just lynch, which is easily outdone by the fact that gn is susceptible to a number of things
[19:19:05] ‹kaempfer13› and there is simply no reason not to lynch when there is nothing better
[19:19:40] ‹shockcannon› keeping GN alive longer is better
[19:19:45] ‹kaempfer13› no lynch is also stupid for playing the game properly, since thats where all the mindgames happen
[19:20:06] ‹shockcannon› ‹@kaempfer13› playing the game proplery or optimally?
[19:20:06] ‹kaempfer13› so stop arguig for it or use legitimate math
[19:20:13] ‹shockcannon› because playing the game optimally involves 0 mindgames
[19:20:34] ‹shockcannon› the legitimate math is lynching negates the advantages of GN
[19:20:42] ‹Linkcat› Guys, what type of boring play is optimal is not even relevant to the point.
[19:20:48] ‹Linkcat› There's no use arguing about it.
[19:20:51] ‹shockcannon› GN gets lets chances to investigate over the course of the game
[19:21:08] ‹kaempfer13› which i have proven is roughly half as good as using the damn lynch
[19:21:10] ‹shockcannon› and town likely kills off GN confirmed targets
[19:21:16] ‹shockcannon› its not
[19:21:55] ‹shockcannon› Not lynching until GN reveals or GN dies will work out better more often than random lynching every day
[19:22:10] ‹shockcannon› there will be plenty of times when it fails
[19:22:17] ‹shockcannon› but random lynching also fails a heck ton
[19:22:36] ‹DoubleCapitals› I'll compile this once y'all are done
[19:23:14] ‹shockcannon› ‹@kaempfer13› you do realize, I don't give a crap about optimal play right?
[19:24:22] ‹MasterWalks› ‹@DoubleCapitals› Hey can you update OP to link to this current phase please
[19:25:43] ‹shockcannon› ‹@Linkcat› hey
[19:25:50] ‹Linkcat› Yo
[19:25:50] ‹shockcannon› i dont know if you're a town or not
[19:25:51] ‹DoubleCapitals› I am not authorized to edit Submachine's posts
[19:26:21] ‹shockcannon› but i don't like get yelled for not playing boring
[19:26:26] ‹kaempfer13› ‹@shockcannon› its fine to have fun, but you refuse the very basics of mafia and math alike
[19:26:58] ‹MasterWalks› ‹@DoubleCapitals› ahh damn ok
[19:27:09] ‹shockcannon› ‹@kaempfer13› i'm not going to continue to argue statistics
[19:27:22] ‹shockcannon› Also, I can almost guarantee I have played more mafia than everyone on this forum combined
[19:27:34] ‹shockcannon› so if you wanna argue experience go ahead
[19:27:45] ‹shockcannon› granted, haven't played with this whack rulest
[19:27:45] ‹MasterWalks› well i dont believe that one bit
[19:28:09] ‹MasterWalks› ‹@Espithel› he said the word we like
[19:28:19] ‹kaempfer13› ‹@shockcannon› wow, how often do you live past day 2 (assuming you play with strangers)?
[19:28:25] ‹Espithel› E X P E R I E N C E
[19:28:30] ‹MasterWalks› E X P E R I E N C E
[19:28:50] ‹Espithel› I'm not even taking the piss
[19:28:53] ‹Espithel› It's just a fun thing to say
[19:29:47] ‹shockcannon› How long someone lives in a mafia game means nothing
[19:29:50] ‹shockcannon› how often they win does
[19:30:07] ‹shockcannon› let's assume mathman101 is town
[19:30:11] ‹shockcannon› is he helping town right now?
[19:30:59] ‹MasterWalks› we went from orchestrate to experience. Now the next word will be O P T I M A L
[19:31:49] ‹shockcannon› ‹@kaempfer13› feel free to follow root
[19:31:55] ‹kaempfer13› the only reason you live to day 3 is because we had to accept that just bc you play abyssmally doesnt mean your mafia out of e x p e r i e n c e (yh i forced that word in there)
[19:32:03] ‹shockcannon› he had literally everyone's info last game as ash and lynched like 4 straight town
[19:32:50] ‹shockcannon› you think i play abyssmally because you think there's only one way to play this game
[19:32:57] ‹Espithel› The next word is H O N O U R A B L E F I F T H
[19:34:11] ‹kaempfer13› apparently at least one of them lied/omitted info and noone explained to them that there is literally no reason not to pm a confirmed town everything you have
[19:34:45] ‹kaempfer13› (unless pms are banned ofc)
[19:35:41] ‹shockcannon› actually someone in chat said they did give root everything and root said he missed a message

Spoiler for This is actually a good read:

[19:37:37] ‹shockcannon› Because there's is literally only 1 role (minus the rare chance of GA protection) that can find mafia in this ruleset, chaos is required to force conversations and role claims that allow for reads to give town the edge
[19:37:47] ‹Linkcat› Everybody he voted for lied or didn't give him information, except Sub and the person you mentioned who I think was iancu.
[19:37:58] ‹shockcannon› if you look at any other mafia game out there that has 15+ players, there are multiple ways to find mafia
[19:38:34] ‹kaempfer13› last mafia there was also the firefly role
[19:38:36] ‹shockcannon› ‹@Linkcat› not ture
[19:38:38] ‹Linkcat› You don't need random role claims to make reads, that's the main thing you're wrong about. You only need to claim when you find something suspicious.
[19:38:38] ‹shockcannon› *true
[19:39:00] ‹shockcannon› ‹@Linkcat› but you'll never find anything suspicious with this ruleset unless someone misplays
[19:39:11] ‹shockcannon› And I addressed misplays in my post
[19:39:14] ‹Linkcat› None of the claims this game fit that category.
[19:39:48] ‹shockcannon› but insig claim for example
[19:39:57] ‹shockcannon› is a misplay in that he blocked when we said he shouldn't block
[19:40:07] ‹shockcannon› so that claim stemmed from a misplay itself
[19:40:10] ‹shockcannon› along with anubis
[19:40:17] ‹shockcannon› along mind flayers
[19:40:21] ‹shockcannon› along with otyughs
[19:40:26] ‹Linkcat› They don't necessarily have to misplay, you read based off of tone, votes, who pushes who, who defends who, etc.
[19:40:52] ‹Linkcat› It's all a bunch of bullshit in the beginning and then it gets figured out later on.
[19:40:59] ‹shockcannon› if you're able to read off tones, votes, and pushes, then someone's misplaying
[19:41:00] ‹Linkcat› That's what I'm trying to do with my recent post.
[19:41:27] ‹Linkcat› We have enough information for me to make a possible full reading of the game.
[19:41:42] ‹shockcannon› i wonder who got that information to come out
[19:41:43] ‹Linkcat› If I'm wrong then I'll have to reevaluate with the new information gained.
[19:42:19] ‹shockcannon› ‹@Linkcat› i'm dying today
[19:42:21] ‹Linkcat› Not you lol, I'm basing everything off of votes and tone reads.
[19:42:26] ‹kaempfer13› ‹@Linkcat› im not sure about this
[19:42:34] ‹Linkcat› I'll try my best to not have that happen.
[19:43:01] ‹kaempfer13› hammering dd in any harderwhen hed flip town would call the overkillvoter into question
[19:43:29] ‹kaempfer13› so mafia at that point probably just thought, let em do it
[19:43:50] ‹kaempfer13› and then we just didnt
[19:44:19] ‹kaempfer13› which ishonestly worse for us as now that topic will never go away
[19:44:43] ‹shockcannon› ‹@Linkcat› youre reads should come from who in chat is trying to mislead everyone
[19:45:41] ‹Linkcat› I don't understand what you're trying to say, kaempfer.
[19:46:08] ‹shockcannon› ‹@MasterWalks›
[19:46:23] ‹kaempfer13› if dd had 6 townvotes at the time, mafia could just sit back
[19:46:59] ‹shockcannon› @MasterWalks I think it's time the "bad townies" teamed up and made a move
[19:47:12] ‹shockcannon› we alone could probably get someone lynched
[19:47:13] ‹kaempfer13› there was no need for them to push further
[19:47:15] ‹Linkcat› I don't believe that a town dd had 5 or 6 votes who were all town.
[19:47:22] ‹Linkcat› Mafia would 100% be on there somewhere.
[19:48:55] ‹kaempfer13› dd had just gotten someone from town killed (out of selfdefense) and with nothing much else to go by everyone voted him
[19:49:25] ‹shockcannon› @Espithel
[19:49:42] ‹shockcannon› @Coffeeditto
[19:49:48] ‹Linkcat› Yes, so mafia would push that.
[19:49:55] ‹shockcannon› would you two make a move on Mobian with me?
[19:50:06] ‹Espithel› Mobian, eh?
[19:50:21] ‹Espithel› Any particular reason why?
[19:51:30] ‹shockcannon› questionable voting
[19:51:34] ‹shockcannon› relatively quiet
[19:51:35] ‹MasterWalks› ‹@shockcannon› not mobian but im down to lynch dd
[19:51:36] ‹Coffeeditto› ‹@shockcannon›
[19:51:41] ‹shockcannon› ian voted on him
[19:51:50] ‹MasterWalks› he doesnt have questionable voting imo
[19:51:58] ‹shockcannon› once said, "do you really think I'd get mafia two games in a row?"
[19:52:11] ‹shockcannon› ‹@MasterWalks› he's literally voting on you now
[19:52:11] ‹MasterWalks› who cares if ian voted him. ian is dead and not GN
[19:52:15] ‹shockcannon› and he voted ian last round
[19:52:20] ‹MasterWalks› i dont care if hes voting me
[19:52:26] ‹kaempfer13› 6 votes seemed pretty final and only after that things changed too quickly for a team to react to it
[19:52:57] ‹MasterWalks› he has every right to. I have voting patterns apparently. Doesnt look like he has a following so i have no reason to defend either
[19:53:03] ‹shockcannon› okay
[19:53:04] ‹shockcannon› what about moehrpi
[19:53:11] ‹shockcannon› i've thought he's mafia since n0
[19:53:15] ‹shockcannon› that hasn't changed
[19:53:16] ‹MasterWalks› what about dd
[19:53:25] ‹shockcannon› I havne't pushed because I know i'd get 0 support
[19:54:42] ‹MasterWalks› yea ad i thought espi is mafia since N0 as well and that also hasnt changed but no one will lynch him
[19:55:00] ‹shockcannon› eh
[19:55:04] ‹shockcannon› are you mafia?
[19:55:29] ‹shockcannon› espithel's dump never came
[19:55:33] ‹shockcannon› i'll switch to espithel
[19:55:34] ‹MasterWalks› probably not
[19:55:35] ‹shockcannon› we get moehrpi tomorrow
[19:55:39] ‹shockcannon› get insig to join us
[19:55:42] ‹shockcannon› bad townies unite
[19:55:43] ‹kaempfer13› normally i would expect those emergency votes to indeed come from mafia to safe a buddy, but it was different people saving him
[19:55:50] ‹shockcannon› there's so many bad townies we wont get outvoted
[19:55:59] ‹MasterWalks› i cant PM insig about mafia and he doesnt talk to me in publi
[19:56:02] ‹MasterWalks› public
[19:56:24] ‹shockcannon› alright
[19:56:30] ‹shockcannon› i'm on espithel now
[19:56:40] ‹MasterWalks› get on that d
[19:56:41] ‹MasterWalks› dd
[19:56:49] ‹shockcannon› nah
[19:56:55] ‹shockcannon› i've giving you your chance
[19:57:00] ‹Espithel› My dump never came because coffee made it absolutely pointless.
[19:57:05] ‹shockcannon› take it or leave it
[19:57:28] ‹Espithel› I can get back to it if you want, though. I'd have to sleep now to get it done before deadline.
[19:57:34] ‹Linkcat› ‹@shockcannon› No, move to Espi.
[19:57:37] ‹Linkcat› I mean dd
[19:58:33] ‹Coffeeditto› ‹@Espithel› uh?
[19:58:50] ‹Linkcat› ‹@Coffeeditto› Why are you voting shock? He's town.
[19:59:21] ‹Coffeeditto› ‹@Linkcat› Why do you believe that?
[19:59:34] ‹shockcannon› ‹@Linkcat› let them vote me
[19:59:42] ‹Linkcat› I read his posts.
[19:59:46] ‹shockcannon› I'm exposing the ACTUAL bad townies and a couple maf right now
[19:59:51] ‹Coffeeditto› Great.
[20:00:44] ‹Linkcat› Especially this one: http://elementscommunity.org/forum/forum-game...
[20:00:51] ‹shockcannon› ‹@Linkcat› town would rather see me die and lose so they can blame my poor play than actually win the game at this point
[20:00:53] ‹Linkcat› That's the towniest shit I've ever seen.
[20:01:58] ‹Coffeeditto› how?
[20:02:16] ‹Coffeeditto› ‹@shockcannon› I thought you were town until one line
[20:02:37] ‹Coffeeditto› [22:46:59] ‹shockcannon› @MasterWalks I think it's time the "bad townies" teamed up and made a move
[20:02:56] ‹shockcannon› ‹@Linkcat› ‹@MasterWalks› I need like 99% certainty ddevans is maf for me to switch to him
[20:03:00] ‹Linkcat› I would watch that movie.
[20:03:29] ‹shockcannon› ‹@Coffeeditto› so what are you hoping for?
[20:03:30] ‹shockcannon› i flip mafia
[20:03:37] ‹shockcannon› and then masterwalks becomes easy lynch
[20:03:39] ‹Coffeeditto› I'm not hoping for anything
[20:03:46] ‹Coffeeditto› I don't hope for anything in games like this
[20:03:59] ‹MasterWalks› ‹@shockcannon› read my vote and see why you should lynch dd
[20:04:28] ‹Coffeeditto› My desires and expectations are not getting in the way of my win condition. I'm not doing this for any reason other than trying to win
[20:04:35] ‹kaempfer13› alright I cant watch this
[20:04:45] ‹Linkcat› ‹@kaempfer13› I honestly don't understand the sentences you're making. Do you believe it's possible that dd was up for lynch as town Day 2 and not a single mafia voted for him?
[20:04:59] ‹Coffeeditto› My current scum reads are Link/Shock/Master/unknown
[20:05:08] ‹kaempfer13› if this is another day where dd has 6 votes on him Ill make sure he actually dies so we can finally move on
[20:05:25] ‹Linkcat› Thanks, I guess.
[20:05:38] ‹Coffeeditto› you wanted reads, Link
[20:05:39] ‹Linkcat› Coffee, why do you think I'm mafia?
[20:05:43] ‹Coffeeditto› there are your reads
[20:05:54] ‹Linkcat› Your reads are ass.
[20:05:58] ‹Coffeeditto› I don't have to say. I reserve my 5th amendment rights
[20:05:59] ‹kaempfer13› but pushing him constantly allows everyone else to just chill and 2 towns die with each lynch opportunity
[20:06:06] ‹Coffeeditto› that's a fallacy
[20:07:07] ‹Linkcat› Not if we lynch him.
[20:07:21] ‹kaempfer13› how are we going to get reads of other people if all that matters is there opinion about ahock and dd?
[20:07:47] ‹kaempfer13› oh boy horrible grammar sorry
[20:07:48] ‹MasterWalks› ‹@shockcannon› ‹@Linkcat› Heres is what we should do. Lets pressure moe or espi until they reveal something, then lets vote hop to dd and get the lynch
[20:08:05] ‹Linkcat› I believe that when we lynch dd as mafia we'll be able to make a lot of reads.
[20:08:12] ‹Coffeeditto› ‹@kaempfer13› if dd or shock are mafia, then the reactions of others throughout the game to their respective lynchings provides info
[20:08:32] ‹Linkcat› How about we stop trying to get people to reveal information to the mafia?
[20:08:34] ‹Coffeeditto› ‹@MasterWalks› that line is scummy as hell??
[20:08:39] ‹Coffeeditto› why would you try to reveal
[20:08:41] ‹Coffeeditto› yeah
[20:08:45] ‹Coffeeditto› agreed, LInk
[20:09:00] ‹MasterWalks› not role reveal necessarily
[20:09:13] ‹MasterWalks› okay no that line is scummy af
[20:09:18] ‹Linkcat› ‹@Coffeeditto› YOU JUST CLAIMED YOUR ROLE AND ALL YOUR TARGETS FOR LITERALLY NO REASON
[20:09:28] ‹Linkcat› I DON'T WANT TO HEAR THIS FROM YOU
[20:09:31] ‹shockcannon› if one you knows the identity of a mind flayer thats not me, you should reveal
[20:09:34] ‹Coffeeditto› there's no reason to vote and pressure info out of someone right now instead of just pushing a full lynch on them. especially when you just let everyone know you won't actually lynch espi, then he feels no need to reveal any info
[20:09:34] ‹shockcannon› because that person is mafia
[20:09:41] ‹MasterWalks› id delete if it wasnt about mafia. just ignore that
[20:09:49] ‹Coffeeditto› ‹@Linkcat› don't let your emotions or preconceptions get in the way of your playing mafia.
[20:10:08] ‹shockcannon› ‹@Coffeeditto›
[20:10:11] ‹Coffeeditto› what I did has nothing to do with what we are doing right now
[20:10:14] ‹shockcannon› everyone voting me is letting their emotions get in the way
[20:10:19] ‹Espithel› ‹@Coffeeditto› Can I just say I hope you don't get modkilled
[20:10:25] ‹Espithel› I like you
[20:10:26] ‹Coffeeditto› ‹@shockcannon› that's not true at all
[20:10:42] ‹kaempfer13› ‹@Linkcat› what do we get if dd is town?
[20:10:43] ‹Coffeeditto› ‹@Espithel› thank you chief
[20:11:15] ‹shockcannon› ‹@Coffeeditto› half the people voting me admit that they think i'm town
[20:11:27] ‹MasterWalks› we get to lynch linkcat for O R C H E S T R A T I N G
[20:11:33] ‹Coffeeditto› great. don't say everyone if you don't mean everyone
[20:11:37] ‹Linkcat› ‹@kaempfer13› We get fill in a heck of a lot of that vote chart with green.
[20:11:42] ‹Coffeeditto› because you don't know everyone's motives
[20:11:53] ‹Coffeeditto› also, in reference to:
[20:11:59] ‹Coffeeditto› [23:09:34] ‹shockcannon› because that person is mafia
[20:12:11] ‹kaempfer13› ‹@Linkcat› how so?
[20:12:16] ‹Linkcat› And then I'll push a lynch on you, Calin, or Mobian.
[20:12:43] ‹Coffeeditto› that doesn't change that now he knows he wouldn't be lynched if your ulterior goal is to lynch dd. he would feel no need to reveal info unless you were okay and willing to lynch him, which would mean that you scumread both espi and dd
[20:12:43] ‹Linkcat› We make every dd green and he'd be a leading wagon all three days.
[20:13:04] ‹shockcannon› ‹@Coffeeditto› why would i be roleblocked by town after claiming GN
[20:13:16] ‹kaempfer13› green would mean that you think everyone that either did or didnt vote dd is town
[20:13:33] ‹kaempfer13› but you just said mafia would push for a dd lynch
[20:13:38] ‹MasterWalks› lol everyone is mafia
[20:14:00] ‹Coffeeditto› ‹@shockcannon› how is that line relevant to the current conversation?
[20:14:09] ‹Linkcat› ‹@kaempfer13› Yes, I don't think we're going to fill in his name as green.
[20:14:14] ‹kaempfer13› so if hes green we can expect about 1 or 2 mafia among the votes according to your premises
[20:14:22] ‹shockcannon› [23:11:59] ‹Coffeeditto› [23:09:34] ‹shockcannon› because that person is mafia
[20:14:32] ‹Linkcat› Yes.
[20:15:15] ‹kaempfer13› but it could be any of them
[20:15:59] ‹Coffeeditto› okay check this out. if you're mafia, then you could have claimed GN and faked being roleblocked
[20:16:16] ‹kaempfer13› sure dd is mentioned a lot, but just filling his name green alone doesnt take us that far
[20:16:19] ‹Linkcat› A lot of those people are being townread by me or are me so that will narrow it down a lot.
[20:16:24] ‹Coffeeditto› if someone else claimed to have roleblocked you, they also could be a lying mafia
[20:16:28] ‹Linkcat› Plus everything we would get from the votes today.
[20:16:38] ‹MasterWalks› i dont understand what everyone means by green
[20:16:55] ‹shockcannon› ‹@Coffeeditto› okay check this out
[20:17:08] ‹kaempfer13› ‹@MasterWalks› its convention to mark confirmed towmmembers with green
[20:17:10] ‹shockcannon› literally anyone else who role claimed could've lied
[20:17:16] ‹shockcannon› and had their mafia teammate be their target and lie
[20:17:16] ‹kaempfer13› as I did in my lynchlog
[20:17:20] ‹Coffeeditto› yeah, you right
[20:17:22] ‹Coffeeditto› so what?
[20:17:25] ‹kaempfer13› (they are all dead)
[20:17:46] ‹MasterWalks› oh, so we can assume that everyone who voted dd is "green" meaning they are town? That makes no sense to me
[20:17:54] ‹Linkcat› ‹@kaempfer13› It will take us farther than anyone else's name being filled in green, and if he's red like I expect then that'll take us way farther than anyone else's name being filled in red.
[20:18:08] ‹kaempfer13› ‹@MasterWalks› no just dd will flip town
[20:18:15] ‹MasterWalks› oh ok
[20:18:35] ‹shockcannon› ‹@Coffeeditto› do you think i'm mafia
[20:18:48] ‹shockcannon› or do you think lynching me is your best shot at winning regardless of if im mafia?
[20:19:25] ‹Espithel› ‹@MasterWalks› We have another memeword now
[20:19:33] ‹kaempfer13› i argue thats not enough
[20:19:34] ‹Espithel› W E A K T O W N
[20:19:47] ‹MasterWalks› ‹@Espithel› O P T I M A L is still my vote
[20:19:56] ‹MasterWalks› weaktown is good too tho
[20:20:06] ‹MasterWalks› but hasnt been said enough
[20:20:06] ‹shockcannon› ‹@MasterWalks› give me your reason why espithel is mafia
[20:20:12] ‹shockcannon› because if the three of us teamed
[20:20:21] ‹shockcannon› we can make something happen and ignore town and mafia distractions
[20:20:25] ‹Linkcat› ‹@kaempfer13› Who do you want to lynch, then?
[20:20:28] ‹Linkcat› Push a read.
[20:20:43] ‹MasterWalks› its in my Day 1 votes
[20:20:47] ‹shockcannon› ‹@Linkcat› i have an idea
[20:21:04] ‹shockcannon› do you agree that mafia is likely guiding town attention and voting?
[20:21:22] ‹Linkcat› No, I think mafia is mostly hanging back.
[20:21:39] ‹shockcannon› then we gather the 8 most quiet people
[20:21:42] ‹shockcannon› and we 1d8
[20:21:44] ‹shockcannon› and go for it
[20:21:48] ‹MasterWalks› i dont know about that.
[20:22:02] ‹Espithel› ‹@MasterWalks› W E A K T O W N playing S U B O P T I M A L L Y
[20:22:03] ‹shockcannon› its the O P T I M A L play
[20:22:12] ‹shockcannon› 50/50 chance
[20:22:13] ‹Linkcat› I don't believe in lynching randomly in a group.
[20:22:15] ‹shockcannon› it doesn't get better than that
[20:22:21] ‹MasterWalks› quiet people are already getting killed off. mafia will paint themself into a corner if they are being quiet and killing the quiet
[20:22:24] ‹Linkcat› I tried to push math and nobody followed.
[20:22:34] ‹Coffeeditto› [23:18:48] ‹shockcannon› or do you think lynching me is your best shot at winning regardless of if im mafia?
[20:22:42] ‹Coffeeditto› both of these things are not mutually exclusive
[20:22:55] ‹Coffeeditto› ‹@Linkcat› afk or quiet does not mean mafia
[20:23:05] ‹kaempfer13› ‹@MasterWalks› basically you believe that a secondary role (randomly given to mafia and town alike) and a rule question expose him
[20:23:08] ‹shockcannon› ‹@Coffeeditto› i'm 99% certain 1 of the 5 people voting on me now is mafia
[20:23:19] ‹Coffeeditto› ‹@shockcannon› why?
[20:23:40] ‹shockcannon› think about it
[20:23:42] ‹Linkcat› ‹@Coffeeditto› I know, I just wanted him to talk.
[20:23:43] ‹Espithel› ‹@MasterWalks› That's your reasoning for me?
[20:23:45] ‹MasterWalks› ‹@kaempfer13› wait what? when did i say that
[20:23:46] ‹Espithel› The day one stuff?
[20:23:50] ‹Espithel› It's day 3
[20:23:51] ‹Espithel› C'mon
[20:23:53] ‹Espithel› Update your shit
[20:23:54] ‹shockcannon› the town move is to vote on me
[20:23:55] ‹Linkcat› All we got was a vote on the leading train and my biggest townread.
[20:23:58] ‹shockcannon› i hurt town
[20:24:00] ‹Espithel› I must've done something spooky since then
[20:24:01] ‹Linkcat› Pretty scummy if you ask me.
[20:24:04] ‹shockcannon› so what's the mafia blend in play?
[20:24:08] ‹shockcannon› it's to vote on me also
[20:24:42] ‹kaempfer13› ‹@MasterWalks› you asked for a roleblock and sth about espi being ffq if hes mafia
[20:24:43] ‹Coffeeditto› [23:23:40] ‹shockcannon› think about it
[20:24:44] ‹shockcannon› and suppose Linkcat is town and is on to something
[20:24:44] ‹Espithel› Not necessarily.
[20:24:56] ‹kaempfer13› it didnt really make sense for sure
[20:24:56] ‹shockcannon› well if they get my vote count high
[20:24:59] ‹shockcannon› town is going to ignore LInkcat
[20:25:00] ‹Espithel› ‹@shockcannon› I think the mafia love you.
[20:25:11] ‹Espithel› Look at how they're lynching - quiet people.
[20:25:18] ‹Linkcat› ‹@shockcannon› I think there's 2 mafia on you.
[20:25:18] ‹shockcannon› no one cares about a single vote on someone when someone else has 5 votes
[20:25:19] ‹Coffeeditto› if your argument is that the people left alive makes that statistically true, then you're statistically incorrect
[20:25:25] ‹Espithel› It implies a contentness with how the town is going.
[20:25:26] ‹Coffeeditto› also please answer instead of dodging
[20:25:40] ‹shockcannon› ‹@Coffeeditto› i just answered why
[20:25:45] ‹Coffeeditto› [23:23:42] ‹Linkcat› ‹@Coffeeditto› I know, I just wanted him to talk.
[20:25:56] ‹shockcannon› what am I dodging?
[20:26:03] ‹MasterWalks› ok. You want to know how mafia is playing? Literally look how espi is playing. but there is a problem. No one is playing like him. My guess is mafia is "splitting up" and taking on different strategies. One is probably quiet, one is super talkative (espi), one is playing strategically, and the last one is probably playing dumb
[20:26:08] ‹shockcannon› mafia is voting on me to make other votes irrelevant
[20:26:31] ‹Coffeeditto› voting on someone to reveal info is something you fought against half an hour ago
[20:26:40] ‹Coffeeditto› ‹@shockcannon› but you don't know that
[20:26:43] ‹Linkcat› ‹@shockcannon› Move to dd and make them pay attention.
[20:26:48] ‹MasterWalks› ‹@kaempfer13› espi being FFQ i fell back on. I thought about it more and dunno if thats true. i DO think he is mafia so therefore i want him blocked
[20:26:49] ‹Coffeeditto› and you're acting like this is all certain
[20:26:53] ‹shockcannon› ‹@Coffeeditto› obviously
[20:26:56] ‹Linkcat› Talking is not the same as revealing.
[20:27:07] ‹Linkcat› He literally has 5 posts.
[20:27:13] ‹kaempfer13› ‹@Linkcat› i gotta be honest with you the only other viable options i see are quiet people, shock, dd, you and rootranger
[20:27:14] ‹Coffeeditto› but this isn't, and you don't definitely know what's going on, so don't say 99% when you don't mean 99%
[20:27:15] ‹Linkcat› One of those is his signup post.
[20:27:20] • Espithel 's urge to roleclaim fucking spikes through the roof
[20:27:25] ‹MasterWalks› ‹@Coffeeditto› I fell back on that too. I said to please ignore that strategy
[20:27:28] ‹Coffeeditto› ‹@Linkcat› why do you want him to talk? for a scum read?
[20:27:49] ‹Coffeeditto› we certainly aren't scum reading anyone based on their low activity of posts this game
[20:27:53] ‹Linkcat› ‹@kaempfer13› Great, out of those let's lynch dd, quiet people, and Root in that order.
[20:28:16] ‹Coffeeditto› quiet doesn't mean scummy
[20:28:18] ‹Coffeeditto› I repeat
[20:28:22] ‹Coffeeditto› quiet does not mean scummy
[20:28:32] ‹Espithel› It does, however, mean useless.
[20:28:40] ‹shockcannon› here's the real question of the day
[20:28:45] ‹shockcannon› if I AM mafia
[20:28:51] ‹shockcannon› does that mean I'm actually playing really well?
[20:29:01] ‹Espithel› Yes.
[20:29:02] ‹Linkcat› If you're quiet then you're not helping town advance the game.
[20:29:06] ‹shockcannon› or am I bad mafia then?
[20:29:15] ‹Espithel› You faffed day 3
[20:29:18] ‹kaempfer13› yh, but its not helping town in a way thats obvious to even the dumbest player thats town
[20:29:26] ‹MasterWalks› no body cares if youre mafia. you will probably be lynched soon and if you are mafia, you will slip up,
[20:29:36] ‹Linkcat› You just leave yourself as a question mark for mafia to lead a mislynch on in the endgame.
[20:29:43] ‹MyNameIsJoey› Well
[20:29:44] ‹Coffeeditto› okay, here's my thought process
[20:29:51] ‹MyNameIsJoey› mafia sure gave a new life to blab.
[20:29:58] ‹Linkcat› ‹@shockcannon› If you're mafia then you're a god.
[20:30:00] ‹Espithel› ‹@MasterWalks› Also, yeah. It's reasonable that all the mafia have different behaviour.
[20:30:05] ‹Coffeeditto› if you're quiet, you're not helping town and you're not helping mafia, or they're about the same
[20:30:21] ‹shockcannon› ‹@Linkcat› if me being mafia is such a rare possibility
[20:30:24] ‹shockcannon› why is everyone voting me up?
[20:30:28] ‹Coffeeditto› if you're saying so much that people are forced to claim, you're not helping town as much as you're helping maf
[20:30:50] ‹Linkcat› Being active is always more beneficial to town than to mafia.
[20:30:56] ‹shockcannon› I haven't forced a single person to claim
[20:31:08] ‹Coffeeditto› that's not true at all
[20:31:10] ‹Linkcat› ‹@shockcannon› Because they're bad.
[20:31:15] ‹Coffeeditto› you can't make that blanket statement
[20:31:21] ‹MasterWalks› (im not going to post this log. I posted the last log and it mentally drained me)
[20:31:23] ‹Linkcat› I am having some serious deja vu right now.
[20:31:25] ‹shockcannon› I can
[20:31:30] ‹Coffeeditto› also, that was a fallacy. don't call people that don't agree with you bad players
[20:31:38] ‹Linkcat› Like double layered deja vu.
[20:31:40] ‹Espithel› ‹@Coffeeditto› ur bad
[20:31:47] ‹MasterWalks› deja bow
[20:31:49] ‹shockcannon› ‹@Coffeeditto› thats what 4/5 players voting me are doing
[20:31:51] ‹shockcannon› or 3/5
[20:31:56] ‹MyNameIsJoey› ‹@Coffeeditto› ur mama is bad
[20:32:00] ‹shockcannon› root doesnt agree with me
[20:32:06] ‹shockcannon› he calls me bad
[20:32:13] ‹MyNameIsJoey›
[20:32:20] ‹shockcannon› calindu doesnt agree with me
[20:32:20] ‹Espithel› Root's argument against you goes a lot deeper than just not agreeing with you
[20:32:21] ‹shockcannon› he calls me bad
[20:32:30] ‹MyNameIsJoey› also @masterwalks
[20:32:35] ‹shockcannon› root only lynches town
[20:32:38] ‹Linkcat› ‹@Coffeeditto› Okay, they're bad or they're mafia or they're just tired of his shit, which is a bad reason to lynch, or they're Root in possible combination with any of those.

We talk about my push, the philosophy behind it, and the current state of the game. Coffee actually talks.

Spoiler for Shock brings up Nazis:

[20:33:14] ‹Coffeeditto› ‹@shockcannon› I don't have to agree with the people doing the same thing as me, to do that thing, right?
[20:33:30] ‹MyNameIsJoey› I know that shock
[20:33:33] ‹Coffeeditto› ‹@Espithel› thank you
[20:33:35] ‹MyNameIsJoey› but then what do you do?
[20:33:40] ‹Coffeeditto› [23:23:42] ‹Linkcat› ‹@Coffeeditto› I know, I just wanted him to talk.
[20:33:41] ‹MyNameIsJoey› Just wait under bonewall?
[20:33:41] ‹shockcannon› ‹@Coffeeditto› no
[20:33:57] ‹shockcannon› but its questionable to align with people who have a mindset that you are opposed to
[20:34:07] ‹Coffeeditto› why?
[20:34:14] ‹MasterWalks› ‹@MyNameIsJoey› i thought it was a shitty deck but it wrecked adrenastaves. I usually wait for the cells to get round 10 of them then T Storm them. cells dont do crap for dmg
[20:34:14] ‹Coffeeditto› what makes you believe that?
[20:34:35] ‹shockcannon› does it not bother you that the people you are voting with are voting for a reason that you dislike?
[20:34:49] ‹Coffeeditto› No, why should it?
[20:35:27] ‹MasterWalks› ‹@MyNameIsJoey› your deck you linked was what it looked like at first. i NEVER run stalls so thought id try something new.
[20:35:43] ‹MyNameIsJoey› btw, the deck I linked is so old
[20:35:56] ‹MyNameIsJoey› that thunderstorm used to cost only 2 quanta and deal only 1 damage
[20:36:13] ‹MyNameIsJoey› the buff to thunderstorm was actually a nerf for this deck.
[20:36:21] ‹shockcannon› idk because this is mafia and things like that should be taken note of
[20:36:39] ‹MasterWalks› ask shock, i try to play weird decks more than winning decks. If i try to win, i only have deja bow.
[20:36:58] ‹Coffeeditto› I think I misunderstood your question
[20:37:02] ‹shockcannon› like if you were voting on a political leader today
[20:37:10] ‹MyNameIsJoey› problem with this kind of deck
[20:37:18] ‹shockcannon› and then a bunch of Nazi's started to vote with you on that person, you wouldn't be the least bit concerned?
[20:37:30] ‹MyNameIsJoey› Is that what you think is stalling, needs stalling to be installed.
[20:37:31] ‹Coffeeditto› you really really
[20:37:38] ‹MyNameIsJoey› A rush will easily beat you off.
[20:37:43] ‹Coffeeditto› just compared the people voting on you other than me to nazis
[20:37:49] ‹shockcannon› you wouldn't reevaluate your candidate just for even a second?
[20:38:00] ‹shockcannon› I needed an extreme example
[20:38:08] ‹Coffeeditto› I definitely would
[20:38:15] ‹Coffeeditto› but the people voting on you are not nazis
[20:38:22] ‹shockcannon› ‹@Coffeeditto› and I technically just compared myself to someone that nazis would vote on
[20:38:25] ‹Coffeeditto› and you are not a political leader
[20:38:33] ‹MyNameIsJoey› Are you sure about that, coffee?
[20:38:37] ‹MyNameIsJoey›
[20:38:40] ‹MasterWalks› ‹@MyNameIsJoey› oh believe me i love rush, it would totally beat me off.... but no rush actually gets countered by that deck pretty well
[20:38:40] ‹shockcannon› obviously
[20:38:50] ‹shockcannon› metaphors are never even close to direclty relatable
[20:38:54] ‹Coffeeditto› ‹@MyNameIsJoey›
[20:39:04] ‹Coffeeditto› so that metaphor can't be applied here
[20:39:05] ‹shockcannon› thats the point of the metaphor
[20:39:07] ‹Coffeeditto› this is mafia
[20:39:13] ‹Coffeeditto› not a country
[20:39:15] ‹MyNameIsJoey› ‹@MasterWalks› I've tried many different versions.
[20:39:50] ‹Coffeeditto› the equivalent to what you said is that I should be concerened that I, a town, am voting you, a mafia, with many other mafias
[20:39:53] ‹Coffeeditto› not applicable
[20:39:53] ‹MasterWalks› i dont believe its a good deck. I posted it because eveyone who played it loved it and thought it was original .
[20:40:11] ‹MasterWalks› i didnt even think it was original as i stated in my post
[20:40:22] ‹MyNameIsJoey› thing is
[20:40:30] ‹MyNameIsJoey› I believe it could be a good deck in a specific setting
[20:40:55] ‹shockcannon› you like being technical dont you
[20:41:03] ‹MyNameIsJoey› example of mods I tried
[20:41:07] ‹MyNameIsJoey› http://dek.im/deck/4sk52gz152sz3534z3542z55c25c5710z572iz27aj7al8pn
[20:41:10] ‹MasterWalks› it was a hard counter in my first 12 lives match against Oa's adrenastaves
[20:41:24] ‹MyNameIsJoey› http://dek.im/deck/z452gz152sz3534z1542z55ijz2710z2714z272iz17gp8pp
[20:41:25] ‹MasterWalks› wait
[20:41:29] ‹shockcannon› you know
[20:41:33] ‹Coffeeditto› ‹@shockcannon› no, I don't like arguing and I meant to go to the store 2 hours ago
[20:41:36] ‹MasterWalks› the point is TStorm and bonewall
[20:42:27] ‹MyNameIsJoey› yeah the 2nd one will fit more with your idea.
[20:42:33] ‹MasterWalks› now youre just posting afla decks
[20:42:44] ‹MasterWalks› dry spell i like
[20:42:47] ‹MasterWalks› thats smart
[20:43:01] ‹MyNameIsJoey› those are decks I used last trials.
[20:43:12] ‹shockcannon› then go to the store
[20:43:29] ‹Coffeeditto› I would love to, I haven't had food all day
[20:43:38] ‹MyNameIsJoey› At first my idea with this deck was to create cells, then kill em all and have vulture OTK, but then I realized
[20:43:39] ‹Coffeeditto› but I also am human and want closure on this conversation
[20:43:46] ‹shockcannon› this game is meant to be fun. if discussion isn't fun for you don't feel like you ahve to partake
[20:44:00] ‹MasterWalks› im having fun
[20:44:01] ‹MyNameIsJoey› What if I can fill their whole board with cells, then I am forming a sort of denial deck, where I am denialing my opponent from playing creatures.
[20:44:26] ‹MasterWalks› ahh so permafrost
[20:44:31] ‹MasterWalks› smart
[20:44:33] ‹Coffeeditto› ‹@shockcannon› the last time I felt like I didn't have to partake, Link wanted to vote on me to get me to talk
[20:44:38] ‹MasterWalks› only sopa would really counter that
[20:44:58] ‹MyNameIsJoey› rush decks beat it too.
[20:44:58] ‹Coffeeditto› are you going to be here in around 45 minutes? I enjoy talking with you

I'm not going to edit this because you don't need to read it.

Discussion is still ongoing in chat.

[InsignificantWeeaboo]

A couple of things that should be considered:

- The only things that are guaranteed to be controlled by town are GN and lynch.
- Lynching is the main way of eliminating scum. (Oty and Toadfish can kill, but only once.)
- Town needs to be prepared with a Plan B once the GN, Crusader, Vulture, and FE are all dead. On a related note, it's not always the best play to constantly rely on the GN
- People must think for themselves, instead of relying on vets to carry them. (Need to practice what I preach...)

(This part is dedicated to arguing against no lynch)
- The Day phase favors the Town, since the town are able to control the lynches with sheer numbers alone. Sure, mafia can try to sway the lynch to their advantage but in order to do this they have to be very convincing while also making sure not to give themselves away.
- In contrast, the Night phase favors Mafia. Nightkill is guaranteed to kill a town, while lynching might hit mafia. Since Mafia can privately discuss how they want to coordinate the usage of their abilities, they don't need to risk using abilities in a way that harms them. Meanwhile, protown abilities can backfire on town during this phase (Ex. Town GA protecting Mafia from being targetted.)
- Voting no lynch means you can't kill scum reliably. (There is a chance killing roles can be on mafia. Even if all of the killing roles were on town, they only get one shot to kill scum. If they kill town using this one shot, they can't try again.) It also means that you give mafia a free nightkill, since you effectively waste a Day phase by voting no lynch.
- While no lynch does preserve town numbers, it doesn't do anything to decrease mafia numbers. Meanwhile, lynching either decreases mafia by one member and town by one member, or it decreases town by two members. In a game where the objective of town is to get rid of all the mafia, it's better to take the gamble instead of delay mafia's victory.

TL;DR for this specific part:
Lynching can kill scum

Scum kills can't.

Less lynching = more scum kills. (quote from Mafia Scum, by iamausername)

[InsignificantWeeaboo]

EBWOP: ...it's better to take the gamble than to delay mafia's victory.

[shockcannon]

Lynching is a necessary tool to win and you scum reads to make lynching less random. But what happens when you don't have scum reads? Do you lynch anyways just out of principle? Because that's what we did the first two nights.

SO SOMEONE PLEASE TELL ME. WHO IS MAFIA? Because apparently lynching JCJ and ian blindly was supposed to help us find mafia. So where are those reads now? Because apparently the read is me, the one who tried to make sure we didn't lynch when we didn't actually have anything to go off. Instead of focusing all your efforts on complaining about my chaos, how about doing what you said you would do, which is learning some magical amount of info from the JCJ and ian lynch. Let's get some actual reads here and stop wasting time.

[Linkcat]

Looks like someone's been doing some reading. Tell me, Insig, who are your scumreads?

Spoiler for last bit of chat:

[20:45:31] ‹shockcannon› don't let link pressure you
[20:45:34] ‹shockcannon› I still think he's mafia
[20:45:55] ‹shockcannon› ‹@MasterWalks› there you go kid
[20:46:06] ‹kaempfer13› ‹@Linkcat› may be confirmation bias, but when I mark the votes so far with my townreads almost everyone thats voted on is green
[20:46:09] ‹shockcannon› if ddevans turns town i'm probably voting linkcat from there on out
[20:46:17] ‹MasterWalks› ‹@shockcannon› thanks champ
[20:46:32] ‹kaempfer13› as such Id like to move away from what we have so far
[20:48:03] ‹shockcannon› if mafia is mobian, immortal feud, ginyu, mathman I think we just lose
[20:55:09] ‹Coffeeditto› be back soon
[20:55:10] ‹Coffeeditto› Notice me, senpai!
[20:55:22] ‹MasterWalks› day phase will end before i am awake.
[20:55:35] ‹MasterWalks› please dont lynch me just because i cant defend myself
[20:55:50] ‹MasterWalks› seems like the meta in this mafia
[20:56:24] ‹MasterWalks› shock is meta slave so he will probably try to lynch me anyways
[21:00:18] ‹kaempfer13› although its probably best to kill of one of the roleclaimees before exposing gn any further
[21:01:02] ‹kaempfer13› but i feel like they are all town, even if most of them idiotic
[21:01:29] ‹MasterWalks› ddevans is too smart to be idiotic
[21:02:12] ‹kaempfer13› dd was extremely pressured and had to basically expect his role to be revealed one way or another
[21:02:31] ‹kaempfer13› and calin tried to prevent an early gn claim
[21:03:09] ‹MasterWalks› i still think one of them is lying
[21:05:02] ‹Linkcat› ‹@kaempfer13› Who is not green?
[21:05:20] ‹Linkcat› In the line you pinged me.
[21:06:00] ‹kaempfer13› RR, link, math, moe, immortal, shock, coffee, Ginyu, espi, master
[21:07:20] ‹Linkcat› Didn't you say dd was a viable option?
[21:07:21] ‹Espithel› Green meaning?
[21:07:56] ‹Linkcat› Espi, name your scumreads.
[21:08:55] ‹kaempfer13› ‹@Linkcat› Its the most logical lynch, but I feel like some things would have gone differently with him if he was mafia
[21:09:47] ‹kaempfer13› like why did it even get so far on day 1
[21:10:32] ‹Linkcat› Because I pushed him.
[21:10:46] ‹shockcannon› what does green mean?
[21:10:57] ‹Linkcat› Like I said, it's easy for mafia to randomly be a leading lynch Day 1.
[21:11:08] ‹MasterWalks› ‹@Espithel› ‹@shockcannon› elemental
[21:11:24] ‹kaempfer13› ‹@Linkcat› ergo you are mafia
[21:11:33] ‹Linkcat› I backed off on my accusation that same Day and it's not even relevant to my current read on him.
[21:11:49] ‹shockcannon› ‹@Linkcat› can you not title that shock brings up nazis?
[21:12:14] ‹Linkcat› Too late, editing is against the rules.
[21:12:25] ‹shockcannon› lol
[21:12:51] ‹Linkcat› And if you didn't want that to happen then maybe you shouldn't have brought up Nazis lol.
[21:13:19] ‹Linkcat› I can't wait for dd to get back.
[21:13:22] ‹Linkcat› This is going to be fun.
[21:14:17] ‹Mobian› Oh dear, it seems I missed quite a bit
[21:14:29] ‹MasterWalks› how did you not hit character limit with that post
[21:14:47] ‹Linkcat› It was very close.
[21:16:11] ‹Linkcat› I had to do so much goddamn editing. For some reason it copy/pasted the entirety of the chat history available to me in every one of those sections, which goes back 16 hours.
[21:16:58] ‹MasterWalks› the same happened to me.
[21:17:21] ‹Mobian› So, I did some light reading, saw shock try to shift accusation onto me. What concerns have you all about me?
[21:17:43] ‹MasterWalks› I dont have any.
[21:19:35] ‹shockcannon› if anyone comments about nazis make this chatlog spoiler shock apology
[21:19:50] ‹shockcannon› coffeeditto was not making sense to me so I went for an extreme
[21:20:07] ‹shockcannon› he still didn't resolve his weird response to my initial question though
[21:20:27] ‹shockcannon› but yeah, prob shouldn't have brought that up
[21:20:43] ‹Linkcat› It's fine.
[21:27:49] ddevans96 joined.
[21:27:56] ‹Linkcat› Hey dd.
[21:28:01] ‹ddevans96› heya
[21:34:07] ‹kaempfer13› ‹@ddevans96› he was talking about trying to get the lynch in not Nking you
[21:34:34] ‹ddevans96› oh wow, I'm big dumb
[21:34:48] ‹ddevans96› it's supposed to say lynch
[21:35:00] ‹ddevans96› I did very little proofreading in that section, was focused elsewhere
[21:35:51] ‹shockcannon› crap
[21:35:53] ‹shockcannon› im conflicted
[21:36:01] ‹shockcannon› now I think linkcat and ddevans are both super town
[21:36:14] ‹shockcannon› but they dont think the other is town
[21:36:29] ‹kaempfer13› also amusing that your attitude about me being lean town changed back to lean mafia, because im kinda sorta defending you
[21:36:48] ‹ddevans96› no?
[21:37:01] ‹ddevans96› definitely didn't get that part wrong
[21:37:12] ‹ddevans96› I'm talking about Link's reads, not mine
[21:37:33] ‹kaempfer13› you said sometime yesterday that after rereading key posts you finally saw me as townish
[21:37:40] ‹ddevans96› yes
[21:37:41] ‹ddevans96› this is the case
[21:39:43] ‹Coffeeditto› ‹@kaempfer13› you're not town to someone even though you're defending them
[21:39:46] ‹ddevans96› are you talking about me putting you in the group of '1 or 2 of these is probably mafia'? bc that's different from a scumread
[21:40:14] ‹ddevans96› it could -become- a scumread later in the game, if the others in that group flip/start looking like town
[21:40:48] ‹kaempfer13› oh yh, i legit misread
[21:41:08] ‹ddevans96› if someone doesn't misread my posts I'm surprised
[21:41:13] ‹ddevans96› they're long, rambly, and have big autism energy
[21:41:19] ‹ddevans96› so no worries lol
[21:46:02] ‹kaempfer13› ‹@Coffeeditto› yh, defending is actually kinda a scummy thing to do and I really need to stop doing it, but dd would know if he was town
[21:46:35] ‹ddevans96› what do you mean?
[21:47:03] ‹Mobian› ‹@kaempfer13› How is defending scummy?
[21:47:15] ‹kaempfer13› there are exactly 5 people that could claim with confidence someones alignment
[21:47:29] ‹kaempfer13› 4 of them are evil
[21:47:41] ‹Linkcat› Defending is not scummy.
[21:47:50] ‹Mobian› You should ALWAYS stand up for yourself, make the best case you can. Otherwise silence can be interpreted as compliance
[21:47:58] ‹kaempfer13› and the other one cant expose themselves
[21:48:13] ‹kaempfer13› so if i defend a mafia im basically dead
[21:48:23] ‹Coffeeditto› defending others can sometimes be scummy
[21:48:26] ‹kaempfer13› ‹@Mobian› talking about other people
[21:50:42] ‹Mobian› Ah
[21:50:50] ‹Linkcat› You should always defend your townreads.
[21:51:05] ‹Linkcat› Or any accusation that's baseless, actually.
[21:51:59] ‹kaempfer13› yh, thats my automatic instinct anyway
[21:52:27] ‹ddevans96› Link is probably town
[21:52:37] ‹Mobian› DD, what puts me in the category of "1 of these is def maf"?
[21:53:25] ‹kaempfer13› but perhaps i should only do that if im pretty confident because it backfiring not only gets me likely killed but also wastes towns time
[21:53:46] ‹ddevans96› which is an issue, bc I'm also a town lean for MW and Cal, and I think one of those three is the real O R C H E S T R A T O R
[21:54:31] ‹shockcannon› is there a world where ddevans and linkcat are both town?
[21:54:39] ‹ddevans96› yes
[21:54:47] ‹Coffeeditto› there's certainly a world, yeah
[21:54:57] ‹Mobian› Maybe
[21:55:37] ‹ddevans96› ‹@Mobian› basically the d1 vote that put me pretty far in the lead, and the post accompanying it
[21:55:48] ‹ddevans96› to be clear, you're a neutral lean for me
[21:56:39] ‹ddevans96› but - that is something that definitely was an 'anti-dd' thing, for lack of a better term
[21:56:50] ‹Mobian› For what it's worth, I've been reading you as town lately
[21:56:53] ‹ddevans96› the group of 5 you're in is similar
[21:57:32] ‹ddevans96› I think one person who's pushed hard against me is mafia, one or two that have pushed a small amount against me, and one or two elsewhere
[21:57:39] ‹ddevans96› if that clarifies those groupings
[21:58:13] ‹ddevans96› hm, fair
[21:59:36] ‹Coffeeditto› what makes someone who is against someone else definitely mafia?
[22:00:02] ‹Coffeeditto› for reference, this is not directed to anyone's particular situation
[22:00:33] ‹kaempfer13› flipping mafia upon getting lynched
[22:01:53] ‹Coffeeditto› why does that change anything?
[22:02:29] ‹kaempfer13› its the only way to truly confirm it for everyone
[22:02:55] ‹Coffeeditto› oh wait, my bad
[22:02:58] ‹Coffeeditto› I phrased that poorly
[22:03:26] ‹Coffeeditto› imagine you're a town, playing mafia
[22:03:34] ‹Coffeeditto› someone else pushes you hard
[22:03:49] ‹Coffeeditto› you don't have any role info for that person, you don't know their alignment
[22:03:53] ‹Coffeeditto› do you assume they're mafia?
[22:05:35] ‹Linkcat› Depends on their reasoning and the way they pushed it.
[22:07:20] ‹kaempfer13› ‹@Coffeeditto› stay calm, see if they had a good reason to assume and dont make emotional decisions
[22:07:29] ‹Coffeeditto› agreed
[22:07:47] ‹Coffeeditto› someone voting on you does not make them mafia
[22:15:52] ‹MasterWalks› ‹@ddevans96› hope that helps. 3rd spoiler really isnt that short but still should read it
[23:17:44] ‹InsignificantWeeaboo› time to destroy shockcannon using FACTS and LOGIC
[23:42:00] ‹Espithel› ‹@InsignificantWeeaboo› DESTROYED WITH FACTS AND LOGIC
[23:43:00] • Espithel coughs.
[23:43:05] ‹Espithel› ‹@ddevans96› Are you alive?
[23:43:19] ‹Espithel› There is something very mafia I wish to talk about.
[23:44:31] ‹Linkcat› I was literally about to post the log.
[23:44:36] ‹Linkcat› Why, Espi.
[23:46:09] ‹Guest-MinorVampire-8edcc› I don’t think anyone gets my post
[23:46:57] ‹Guest-MinorVampire-8edcc› Except maybe linkcat
[23:48:22] ‹Guest-MinorVampire-8edcc› I guess it’s no surprise I’m being voted up right now then
[23:48:50] ‹Guest-MinorVampire-8edcc› Obvious satire isn’t obvious apparently
[23:58:20] ‹Espithel› ‹@Linkcat› Good news!
[23:58:22] ‹Espithel› He's dead!
[23:58:37] ‹Espithel› I guess I could discuss it with you instead but I like evans more than you!
[23:58:49] ‹Linkcat› </3

[shockcannon]

shockcannon (5) - Calindu, RootRanger, moehrpi, mathman101, Mobian
ddevans96 (3) - Linkcat, MasterWalks
Mobian (1) - shockcannon

[shockcannon]

shockcannon (5) - Calindu, RootRanger, moehrpi, mathman101, Mobian
ddevans96 (2) - Linkcat, MasterWalks
Mobian (1) - shockcannon

[shockcannon]

shockcannon (6) - Calindu, RootRanger, moehrpi, mathman101, Mobian, shockcannon
ddevans96 (2) - Linkcat, MasterWalks

[Espithel]

I have two primary assumptions:
-Shockcannon, Evans, and Walk are town.
-The mafia are happy with the current gamestate.

The first assumption:
While we should have lynched shock on day 1, it's too late to lynch him. We need to start lynching scum. We can discipline him for being the honourary fifth later. I think he is town, and don't want town lynched.
Walk has a level of conviction beyond what is healthy for mafia to go for. He is town.
Evans has repeatedly been under fire, and has repeatedly been saved. Of the three, he is the most likely to be scum.

The second assumption is created due to how the mafia have lynched: Inactive People. They have not attempted to deal with Shock in any capacity. In addition, attacking evans and one other person keeps happening. Repeatedly.

Because the mafia are happy with the current gamestate, let's try and sow some dissent, hm?

So, ladies and gentlemen! Espithel would like to present:

Take note, Walks. This is how you go to town on someone.

*Coughs.* Ahem.

shockcannon (6) - Calindu, RootRanger, moehrpi, mathman101, Mobian, shockcannon
ddevans96 (2) - Linkcat, MasterWalks
Mobian (1) - Espithel

I'm feeling a good 70% here.

STEP ONE: THE HAMMERS

Thanks to Kae, we have a handy dandy chart of how everyone voted. How did Mobian vote on day 1?


This is what the cool kids call a "hammer." The hammer is the person who decides the vote on a day. If you look here, Evans has a clear majority on him. Mobian decides to make this majority larger.

The reason why hammering should be avoided at all costs is because it neuters discussion. I feel that, had this hammer not happened, we would have had much healthier options than just JCJ and Evans to pick from. The hammer failed, but this was at the very end of the phase.

And then you have today:

shockcannon (5) - Calindu, RootRanger, moehrpi, mathman101, Mobian
ddevans96 (3) - Linkcat, MasterWalks, shockcannon

Shock's been trying to stir up conflict and dissent. He's seeming more and more scummy.

Another day, another hammer. A lot of people have expressed concern that both these lynches are bad. Mobian, again, votes late and votes as the hammer, trying to stifle discussion (dissent.)
Do you remember how I believe that the mafia are happy with the situation right now? I feel this is an enforcement of that. They do not want a repeat of day 1 where someone random died.

On day 2, Mobian voted to lynch Ian. Keep this in mind later. It's not important here.

STEP TWO: THE HYPOCRISY

Let's have a deeper look at that first vote, hm? Why did he vote that way?

First off:

I really, really hate it when shock is the voice of reason, but he did have quite a few good points. Right now, I'm inclined to agree with him on keeping our numbers as high as possible. We don't have any solid intel on anybody yet, and I'd like to be sure when I sentence someone to death.

This is Mobian's first post for the day and of the game. I'm not a fan of filthy no-lynchers, but fair enough. You want to be sure, it's day one. That's an incorrect, but fair argument. I can respec-

Really?
What was the wonderous, high-intel post that made you take this decision that you'd be sure about?

Was it Linkcat's post?

That's not high intel. That's a minor scumread at best. You cannot be sure that this will result in scumlynch. Not even Link was sure it'd result in a scumlynch.
By your own principles, you should've no-lynched. You didn't. Why?

That's beyond neglience. That's being spineless. How do I know this?

Iancu, please EBWOP to include my vote.

I've been watching this without much commentary, mostly because I still don't know all of you that well. So until I have a better read on people, I feel going with the majority is best for me. The ideal situation for me would have been to be absolutely sure, and I was considering using my vote to throw a null lynch, but given how the majority of you feel about that, I didn't want to give off the wrong impression and make you think I was mafia again. I truly hope we're making the right play on ddevans, but at this point, I suppose it can't be helped. Please bear in mind this is only my second game of mafia, and I don't want my inexperience to come out as scum.

-

ImageHereSTEP 3: IANImageHere

Alright.
Bring yourself to day 2.
Mobian voted to lynch Ian on an OMGUS.

kaempfer13 (1) -  Linkcat
ddevans96 (4) - Calindu, shockcannon, MasterWalks, InsignificantWeeaboo
InsignificantWeeaboo (4) - ddevans96, dawn to dusk, immortal feud, RootRanger
Mobian (1) - Iancudorinmarian
iancudorinmarian (2) - Espithel, Mobian

The more I think about my earlier theory, the more sense it makes. Also, ian seems to just rub me the wrong way.

Why?
If Mobian was town, this makes no sense beyond "being emotional." According to Mobian's own words, he got overly defensive at Ian voting on him earlier in day 2. Why?
Mobian was in no threat of being lynched that day. I even moved my vote on ian because of his constant vote-switching (have a spine in your convictions, ian. >:( )

If Mobian had properly written out his theory, I feel this would be acceptable. But, he didn't. He said "he rubs me the wrong way." This is useless, and violates his theory on no-lynching stated in step 1.

-

If only one of these things were present, Mobian would be neutral to town. It's the combination of all three that looks very off.
Before we start voting on Mobian, please give him time to respond. His dissent is important.

Now, Evans, Shock. Special warning for you.
I am not making this post to defend your hides. I am doing this because I think Mobian is a better lynch.
If either of you vote on Mobian, I will vote to lynch you immediately. Don't.

[ddevans96]

shockcannon (6) - Calindu, RootRanger, moehrpi, mathman101, Mobian, shockcannon
ddevans96 (2) - Linkcat, MasterWalks
moehrpi (1) - ddevans96

[shockcannon]

shockcannon (5) - Calindu, RootRanger, moehrpi, mathman101, Mobian
ddevans96 (2) - Linkcat, MasterWalks
moehrpi (1) - ddevans96, shockcannon