Author

RootRanger · « **Reply #444 on:** May 28, 2019, 07:42:38 pm »

Quote from: MasterWalks on May 28, 2019, 05:56:25 pm

He was sus of dd, just like a ton of other people. You said it yourself (well more quoted it) If you are sus of someone, then yes roleblock them. Which is exactly what he did.

If there were a decent justification for why ddevans was mafia, then sure. But there isn't. No GN claim, no Oty reveal, not even Psion - basically nothing of value. I'd still wager it's more likely than not that IW is a civ playing way too recklessly, but the odds that he's mafia are definitely better than the odds that ddevans is.

kaempfer13 · « **Reply #445 on:** May 28, 2019, 07:44:22 pm »

In case insig lied I think hes almost always mafia. To specific a claim and he didnt realize there was only 1 role that could tell with confidence (2 that can somewhat tell, but 2 fireflies were caught so how many are there gonna be realistically?). Although I struggle to find a reason for him to do that unless he wanted to out an oty as he (assuming hes lying) thought using oty early would always look scummy (rather than just generally a plain bad play unless fate egg). So if he has access to info of someones role that annoyed him that happened to be oty or claimed oty (like shock did at some point, likely as a joke), I imagine he could try to make carriers of the role look bad.

Is there a chance insig told the truth and yet both are mafia? While doublebussing often guarantees one lives for a while, guarding your own mafia teammate probably only makes sense if they have OU abilities.

could insig tell the truth, be mafia and dd town? Somewhat unlikely with dd always on the chopping block and having caught a firefly according to his words, so why would maf block him for likely no effect? Not an actual edit as I didnt post this yet, but seems dd suggests it was to block town from learning dds role. However doesnt the same thing still apply? Every good role except roleblocking/killing ones is absolutely worth using every opportunity you get so I dont think learning your role matters that much (let alone going the step further to do it just to prevent people from learning it).

Ok so what if insig is telling the truth and town? In that case he likely didnt realize warden is the only townrole that could have that kind of info (I guess that applies no matter what). Seems he regards all roleblocks as bad for town (no exception other than used on maf ofc) ( I argued warden might be worth using blindly for the info and protection it gives, but he clearly thought otherwise with his claim to not have used it N0), so him using the ability on dd means he was decently confident of dd being maf. Hm, in that case i dont really know what to make of it really and its actually the most likely scenario... Wit the options for dd being town and maf to explore.

Dd has been really aggressive with pushing specific lynches, even after he got to his goal of selfpreservation for the round. And he really needs to make it more clear when he's calling of the dogs, I still havent found where he actually stated anything contrary to espithel being the one and only logical lynch so long as people follow through (until after he was directly questioned about it). I think focussing too much on one person for lynch target is likely bad for town in the long run as fewer people are actually forced to talk that way. For mafia getting town to lynch town is obv good.

Thoughts?

Mobian · « **Reply #446 on:** May 28, 2019, 07:55:27 pm »

kaempfer13 (1) - Linkcat
ddevans96 (4) - Calindu, shockcannon, MasterWalks, InsignificantWeeaboo
InsignificantWeeaboo (4) - ddevans96, dawn to dusk, immortal feud, RootRanger
Mobian (1) - Iancudorinmarian
iancudorinmarian (2) - Espithel, Mobian

The more I think about my earlier theory, the more sense it makes. Also, ian seems to just rub me the wrong way.

ddevans96 · « **Reply #447 on:** May 28, 2019, 08:09:54 pm »

Quote from: kaempfer13 on May 28, 2019, 07:44:22 pm

Dd has been really aggressive with pushing specific lynches, even after he got to his goal of selfpreservation for the round.

My goal of self-preservation had to last until the very end of d1, by necessity.

Quote

And he really needs to make it more clear when he's calling of the dogs, I still havent found where he actually stated anything contrary to espithel being the one and only logical lynch so long as people follow through (until after he was directly questioned about it).

[1] Less than three hours after my initial post about Espi/MW, a post expressing comfort lynching shock.
[2] An hour later, after a discussion with shock in chat, a post saying we shouldn't lynch shock, my preference is still Espi, but asking for alternatives.
[3] An hour later, still preferring Espi, but expressing a willingness to change vote to anyone other than shock.
[4] Less than an hour later, a statement that I would change my vote to my biggest scumread, which was not Espi, and note that in this post I defended Espi
[5] Two hours later, expressed reluctance to no-lynch, but not outright defiance.

Did I ever explicitly 'call off the dogs' on Espi? Maybe not. Did I think I had to? Absolutely not.

Quote

Here's one, about I think focussing too much on one person for lynch target is likely bad for town in the long run as fewer people are actually forced to talk that way. For mafia getting town to lynch town is obv good.

My initial focus on Espi also indicated multiple times that I considered MW a viable option as well.
My stance then shifted to feeling comfortable lynching anyone but shock.
My self-preservation push on jcj was fueled by input from others about which potential target to choose from.
In both rounds, I expressed a willingness to lynch you if that's something people considered a good option.

I think there are multiple people in this game who have focused more on people than I have. Like the 'orchestrating' buzzword, I think this is off the mark.

MasterWalks · « **Reply #448 on:** May 28, 2019, 08:40:42 pm »

I would like to request Ginyu, Mathman, and coffee to share their thoughts on this insig/DD ordeal as well as maybe their scum reads.

shockcannon · « **Reply #449 on:** May 28, 2019, 09:39:10 pm »

Quote from: RootRanger on May 28, 2019, 07:38:32 pm

[10:09:50] ‹shockcannon› ian is 100% maf

I just want to comment that if ian ends up being civ this game, the log loss of shock's predictions becomes infinite, basically meaning that he's so incorrect that human measures of classification performance are incapable of describing how unreliable he is. Just something to think about in future mafias - that one of the people you're playing with is an infinitely unreliable teammate.

I'll respect your doubt. Let's play a game. We never lynch ian and see if town wins.

shockcannon · « **Reply #450 on:** May 28, 2019, 09:42:36 pm »

@Mobian @Espithel

I made a typo, every time I said mafia in the same sentence as ian I really meant town. You're just looking like mafia or town noobs by voting him up. Ian has told us he has a very important role and he would be willing to die just to spite me if his role wasn't so important. Also mind flayer keeps blocking him every night because mind flayer is probably mafia and knows ian has a powerful role because ian publicly told everyone he has a powerful role. I'm mind flayer.

MasterWalks · « **Reply #451 on:** May 28, 2019, 09:45:20 pm »

So you are blocking ian every round? If so, thats some pond scum right there.

RootRanger · « **Reply #452 on:** May 28, 2019, 10:20:46 pm »

I wanted to lynch shock but couldn't get the votes for it :/

dawn to dusk · « **Reply #453 on:** May 29, 2019, 02:17:54 am »

Spoiler for Log pt1 aka the interesting part aka Warden x dd x Otyugh:

(Somewhat tl;dr)
The Oty situation makes no sense

Situation A - dd town
1. Mafia Oty - why would they use it on someone who is about to get lynched? Much better to save for LyLo (Lynch or lose)
2. Town Oty/Town IW - Why would 2 people, both with hyperaggressive roles, both target the same person who only "looks scummy"?
3. Unknown Fate Egg - Rolls FFQ N0, uses it on someone, who then catches it N1. Rolls Oty N1, uses it to kill dd.
3a. Town Fate Egg - Feels like he needs to use it, so uses it on the person he deems most scummy at the time. Somewhat makes sense.
3b. Mafia Fate Egg - Attempts to kill someone who he doesn't think will be protected. But still a weird choice to vote for.
4. Town Oty/Mafia IW - Fears dd's ability for some reason, despite him not using it N0. Makes little sense but included it for completion

Situation B - dd mafia
1. Mafia Oty/Mafia IW - Super specific. Requires a lot of risk to make this play work well for them, but isn't unspeakable. This situation makes dd look town, especially if he is at the forefront of the IW vote. Oty also looks somewhat town/irrelevant to the situation, or even looks town based off voting patterns and the above statement that Oty should save ability.
2. Mafia Fate Egg/Mafia IW - Related to the above situation, but Oty is no longer an OU ability that they should save, and they can create this situation to make """Otyugh""" look town.
3. Town OtyEgg/Mafia IW - Lucky protection, makes little sense.
4. Town OtyEgg/Town IW - See Situation A Town/Town
5. Mafia OtyEgg/Town IW - MASSIVELY risky play, but makes Oty look super town. They got unlucky with IW protecting dd.

No idea what the most likely scenario here is, wouldn't mind hearing more input

Ginyu · « **Reply #454 on:** May 29, 2019, 02:18:36 am »

Again, I did not read any bigger chat logs, so if I missed some information, please post them.

As for, dd/Insig, lets look at the possibilities:

Insig is town: Only makes sense to target dd when he consideres him scummy, because a town dd would likely be left alone by mafia as he was on the lynch radar the day before. If dd is mafia, blocking him might target a potential mafia roleblocker, since we still don't know what happened to ian and mafia is most likely to have targeted him. That is, unless he ran into a Graboid, Seraph or Immortal.
Insig is mafia: As dd caught a firefly N0, it is rather unlikely (yet not impossible) he has a power role. As such, blocking him would only be useful to get information - but what exactly? Warden only reveals abilities used, but no names, so learning that a Golden Nymph targeted him would reveal she was blocked N0, which could then be whoever Insig targeted N0. That would be extremely terrible, and we will see if that happened during the next Night Phase, unless they only block her to keep this possibility unconfirmed. This requires a lot of luck and Golden Nymph targeting dd, however. I don't really see any other solid information, but I guess every little bit counts, as in which abilities are present in the game, for example.
Both are mafia: Seems unlikely to me, since lynching one of them still doesn't relieve pressure from the other; dd with all the claims of orchestrating (although I agree he was mostly just defending himself) and Insig with a weird ability usage would still be up for debate. Not the greatest bus, and Insig wasn't a big lynch target before. They might have went on with their little feud to look consistent, but that seems quite risky to me.

The Oty is probably a town reading into dd as scum, because mafia outing themself so early is something I highly doubt. It might be connected with some kind of bus, but I can't really pull that together. The other possibility is a hatched Oty, which makes the most sense to me, but still leaves the Egg as a town. If that Oty/Egg was mafia, they would likely think of them being the next lynch target and therefore use their ability as long as they can, but eating dd reveals way too much information and kills someone already about to get lynched, so they would rather eat someone silent imo.

Overall, I feel like exactly one of them is mafia, but I can't really tell who. Insig's reveal does hold something weird, so I am more inclined to think of him.

mathman101 · « **Reply #455 on:** May 29, 2019, 02:23:23 am »

kaempfer13 (1) - Linkcat
ddevans96 (4) - Calindu, shockcannon, MasterWalks, InsignificantWeeaboo
InsignificantWeeaboo (4) - ddevans96, dawn to dusk, immortal feud, RootRanger
Mobian (2) - Iancudorinmarian, mathman101
iancudorinmarian (2) - Espithel, Mobian

8+ pages of reading is too much for one sitting, I'm gonna just vote and pretend I read stuffs.

Poll

Who played the best mafia?

Author

RootRanger

Re: Elements Mafia 71 - by Submachine https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=67178.msg1290009#msg1290009

kaempfer13

Re: Elements Mafia 71 - by Submachine https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=67178.msg1290010#msg1290010

Mobian

Re: Elements Mafia 71 - by Submachine https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=67178.msg1290011#msg1290011

ddevans96

Re: Elements Mafia 71 - by Submachine https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=67178.msg1290012#msg1290012

MasterWalks

Re: Elements Mafia 71 - by Submachine https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=67178.msg1290015#msg1290015

shockcannon

Re: Elements Mafia 71 - by Submachine https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=67178.msg1290016#msg1290016

shockcannon

Re: Elements Mafia 71 - by Submachine https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=67178.msg1290017#msg1290017

MasterWalks

Re: Elements Mafia 71 - by Submachine https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=67178.msg1290018#msg1290018

RootRanger

Re: Elements Mafia 71 - by Submachine https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=67178.msg1290019#msg1290019

dawn to dusk

Re: Elements Mafia 71 - by Submachine https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=67178.msg1290023#msg1290023

Ginyu

Re: Elements Mafia 71 - by Submachine https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=67178.msg1290024#msg1290024

mathman101

Re: Elements Mafia 71 - by Submachine https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=67178.msg1290025#msg1290025