Elements Mafia 71 - by Submachine

[Ginyu]

Most likely a town Otyugh, as mafia revealing themself that early can't be worth it.

[Linkcat]

Guys, please stop outing your roles.

[shockcannon]

@MasterWalks
@Espithel
@RootRanger

I know you 3 do not trust me at all and would be some of the last ones to trust me. This is going to be harsh, but the three of you are all town and you're all really bad at playing as town. For reals MW, espithel is town okay? I know all 3 of you are going to ignore this, so I have a plan. Keep me alive for one more day, then I info bomb on day 3 and reveal all 4 mafia (I currently am pretty sure about 3). Then you lynch me on day 3 because you're not going to trust me until I'm confirmed town. But when I die and I flip town, you 3 need to band together and stick to my plan that I lay out on day 3. Don't be dissuaded and tricked by all the other losers playing this game. They're really good at manipulating. I know this text seems patronizing and disrespectful. In all honesty, it probably is, but we all care about winning this game.

I'm asking you to trust in this plan because step one of the plan requires me getting lynched. After I get lynched, you can feel free to ignore anything I say. But at least keep me alive for one day and then lynch me.

[Espithel]

I wasn't really planning on trying to lynch you, so alright.

You live today.

[ddevans96]

I want it on public record that I kept shock alive on day one because I suspected he'd play this kind of gambit and I decided to put faith into it.

We can find out on day 3 whether he's useful or not. Who would we rather lynch today?

[RootRanger]

I don't expect shock's claims to be any better than random noise.

That being said, if ddevans wants to go for a different lynch, I'll follow through with it, since I think he is almost certainly a civ. The best explanation for usage of the Otyugh ability this early in the game is that a mafia Otyugh expects to be lynched soon and wants to do something useful before he dies. If ddevans were mafia, the Otyugh wouldn't really have enough to go off of to justify using his ability so early on. It's also possible that Insig is just outright lying about what he saw, and both of them are mafia, but that wouldn't make any sense at all since neither of them is under risk of being lynched so they don't need to do anything drastic. If we lynch Insig, we can know for sure if he's telling the truth about what he saw, plus he seemed to be blind roleblocking which wouldn't make sense for a civ but I could see him doing anyways.

I guess kaempf is still a decent enough lynch? I'd prefer Espithel but this is if we want to listen to shock.

[Linkcat]

I doubt a mafia would feel enough pressure on Night 1 to Devour someone. It's more likely a newer player who thinks they have a great read.

[Linkcat]

I think it's actually most likely to be a Fate Egg ability that they wanted to use while they had the chance.

[moehrpi]

I just quickly read up what happened... for an hour. :/
and here are a few things about playstyle I noticed:
I am not so sure catching Fireflies should be reported anymore. With 2(+) FFQs we could quicklly give away everyone who does not target people.
There might not be a second civ GA, since ian caught a Firefly.
insig claimed his role?!


I hoped to get some vague theories in today, too, but will hopefully get around to it tomorrow. Unless shock solves it all by himself.

[kaempfer13]

To the ones claiming I'm never awkward, you clearly havent seen me outside my comfort zone before. And how would you, its the internet, I'm good at the game you know me from and I have somewhat avoided touching on other subjects with you.
Pipeworks revealed that I was way too trusting in this type of game (since literally everyone else had 2 spies and I knew I wasnt and both the others of our 3 potential true teammates could correctly state our faction goal (on simultaneous reveal) I had just assumed we were a bigger but limited through roles team). So thats a hit to my confidence right there. Additionally I felt the need to talk a lot in order to gain information, while i had nothing to go off yet. I am convinced I would be less awkward if I knew who my teammates were. Perhaps it would have been easier to take a backseat as town, but that wasnt how I heard this game was supposed to be played.

[shockcannon]

Kaempf, you're a noob. I'm your teammate. Act like that's a 100% true fact and things will go well for you.

[Calindu]

Can confirm that there is at least one Otyugh in the game. dd was targeted by them.

Gonna refrain on voting for now, but figured that it could be vaguely useful to give this info.

Ooh, interesting.

Who would want me dead?

[21:49:09] ‹ddevans96› ‹@InsignificantWeeaboo› post in mafia when you can. I want to hear your thoughts
[21:50:29] ‹InsignificantWeeaboo› ok
[21:50:52] ‹ddevans96› ty

I find this interaction quite strange, if not forced, dd asks Insig to post his thoughts, and 5 minutes later he outs himself as Warden and says an Otyugh targeted dd. I believe that's a lie, but let's see the cases if it were true:

1. Mafia Otyugh, Town dd: Doesn't really make much sense really, there's no reason for mafia to force a kill on dd, who was very close to being lynched D1, while outing one of their own.
2. Town Otyugh, Unknown dd: Again, doesn't really make much sense and is pretty much a terrible play, no reason for anyone to do it.

The only way I see an Otyugh using their ability on dd this early is if a Fate Egg got GN and investigated him N0 and then got Otyugh and targetted him N1, but dd said he caught a firefly N0 and no one called him out on this, so this is not possible.

Now I'm not sure if they are mafia or if someone actually targeted dd as Otyugh with no additional info, because I also find it hard to believe they'll try something like this if they were mafia.
I'm going to put my vote on dd for now, but will consider changing if someone has a better lead.

immortal feud (1) - Espithel
shockcannon (1) - RootRanger
kaempfer13 (1) - MasterWalks
ddevans96 (1) - Calindu