Elements Mafia 71 - by Submachine

[Calindu]

TBH Mobian doesnt appear to have the confidence he had when he was mafia. I would know as i had allied with him last game. HOWEVER I WILL NOT DEFEND HIM after what he did to me last time. I'm just not getting mafia read from him (granted i didnt when he actually was mafia last time)

What do you mean? He seems to be really confident. He said almost nothing during the whole round, made a very late vote with no given reason, then jumped to criticise everyone's style of playing mafia, despite himself admitting this is his second mafia game. He wants us to wait for proof in order to lynch someone, instead of trying to actually read people.

Not in the early stages, but you people are SO hung up on "someone has to die, so we MIGHT learn something". With that mindset, we may as well not even have secondary roles and just blindly shoot people till the game ends.

We might as well transform the game into a mafia vs Golden Nymph game and just skip the first few day phases, shall we?

He also used the fact that he rolled mafia the last game to argue that he's not mafia, despite the first event having no relevance here.

Now, I'm not sure he's mafia, because I doubt he'd start a rant that would inevitably annoy most people if he were mafia.

[MasterWalks]

No hes confident when defending himself. Not with decisions from what i can tell.

[Mobian]

What do you mean? He seems to be really confident. He said almost nothing during the whole round, made a very late vote with no given reason, then jumped to criticise everyone's style of playing mafia, despite himself admitting this is his second mafia game. He wants us to wait for proof in order to lynch someone, instead of trying to actually read people.

First of all, I did explain my vote, in the very same post you found me stating this is my second game. Please refrain from cherry-picking my words. And yes, I would like more information on a player besides WHAT they said, especially at the beginning of a game. I'm not sure you got the memo, but the way our abilities are designed this time encourages teamwork and coordination to ferret out reliable intel. I don't agree with the "meta" strategy because I view it as sloppy and inefficient, and in the last Day phase. We only had a 20% chance of blindly finding a mafia. So yes, I'm criticizing the town's blunder, in the hopes of not repeating it. I'm annoyed, which means I air my grievances. If that makes me dirty, so fucking be it. But I have never been one to mince words, and I won't start now. 

[MasterWalks]

And yes, I would like more information on a player besides WHAT they said, especially at the beginning of a game.

What are you hoping for in a rule set that doesnt allow PM's? For another shock crusade of role reveals? For your ability to gather you more info? I doubt anyone is really going to info dump what they have found unless pressed with lynch which takes time, but according to you, we should no lynch. WHAT they said/say is really all we get for public information. What you gather with your role is your info. If you want to tell us what youve gathered, sure! But dont expect to live much longer after Mafia knows your role.

[Mobian]

And yes, I would like more information on a player besides WHAT they said, especially at the beginning of a game.

What are you hoping for in a rule set that doesnt allow PM's? For another shock crusade of role reveals? For your ability to gather you more info? I doubt anyone is really going to info dump what they have found unless pressed with lynch which takes time, but according to you, we should no lynch. WHAT they said/say is really all we get for public information. What you gather with your role is your info. If you want to tell us what youve gathered, sure! But dont expect to live much longer after Mafia knows your role.

I'm saying we shouldn't be jumping to erroneous conclusions so early in the game. If we were to slow-roll it, we as the town would be able to build stronger cases against whoever we suspected of being mafia. But jumping to conclusions and fucking up the lynch only helps mafia.

But, whatever. This is the last you'll hear from me on the subject. I truly hope you all know what you're doing.

[Calindu]

Spoiler for chat transcript:

[02:14:28] ‹dawn_to_dusk› ‹@Linkcat› Correct me if I'm wrong, did you ask in N0 for GA to target you
[02:15:25] ‹Linkcat› Yes
[02:15:32] ‹Linkcat› And for buffs
[02:16:19] ‹dawn_to_dusk› Ok good, I wonder if people followed through
[02:16:35] ‹Guest-Phoenix-b838e› I really hope GN isn’t an incompetent piece of garbage
[02:16:54] ‹Guest-Phoenix-b838e› Because this should be free win if they stay alive to check 2 more people
[02:17:02] ‹Mobian› Sadly, we have no way of knowing.
[02:17:41] ‹dawn_to_dusk› Welp guys we found the Phoenix
[02:18:02] ‹Mobian› Lol
[02:20:15] ‹dawn_to_dusk› Btw huh, suddenly JCJ died
[02:20:17] ‹dawn_to_dusk› Rip
[02:25:26] ‹Mobian› What did we expect with an 80% chance of friendly fire?
[02:27:42] ‹dawn_to_dusk› It's greater than that tbh
[02:27:48] ‹dawn_to_dusk› Closer to 90%
[02:28:18] ‹dawn_to_dusk› Mafia has an easier chance of deflecting votes to civs
[02:29:06] ‹Guest-Chrysaora-9ce35› it shoukd be less
[02:29:12] ‹Guest-Chrysaora-9ce35› if civvies are smart
[02:29:56] ‹MasterWalks› ‹@Guest-Chrysaora-9ce35› Youre having mafia withdrawls. Shoulda joined
[02:30:12] ‹Guest-Chrysaora-9ce35› nah i aint
[02:30:23] ‹Guest-Chrysaora-9ce35› just fun to follow
[02:30:46] ‹dawn_to_dusk› If civvies are smart then mafia is smart too
[02:30:56] ‹dawn_to_dusk› Smart mafia can deflect easy
[02:44:51] ‹Mobian› ‹@dawn_to_dusk› Yuuuuuup. Good luck getting anyone to listen though.
[02:45:42] ‹Mobian› We're no better than a superstitious mob on a witch hunt.
[02:46:39] ‹dawn_to_dusk› ‹@Mobian› But
[02:46:45] ‹dawn_to_dusk› Town lynches can reveal information too
[02:47:02] ‹dawn_to_dusk› Voting patterns, how quick people were to jump on the train, etc
[02:47:07] ‹dawn_to_dusk› Like say dd flips mafia now
[02:47:16] ‹dawn_to_dusk› D1 people defended him and quickly voted for JCJ
[02:47:31] ‹dawn_to_dusk› Now the people who voted JCJ look extra suspicious
[02:47:44] ‹Mobian› ‹@dawn_to_dusk› That seems to be the party line. I'll leave it to you all until I find the rats myself
[02:49:11] ‹Calindu› Please do so, but no lynch for a couple of days until we can find a sure mafia lynch is a losing play
[02:49:38] ‹Calindu› Not only is it too slow, but it allows mafia to just not offer any information whatsoever and just lie in the shadows
[02:49:40] ‹MasterWalks› I was all for not lynching either of them and just lynching espi, like we shoulda done, but nooooo
[02:50:21] ‹Calindu› It also completely fails if the first lynch we actually take flips town
[02:50:49] ‹Mobian› You mean like we already did
[02:51:05] ‹Calindu› ‹@MasterWalks› I wasn't ok with lynching JCJ either, but lynching Espithel is probably the same, if it's based on just a hunch from you
[02:51:27] ‹Calindu› ‹@Mobian› No, read again, I'm talking about your strategy of doing nothing and waiting for the golden nymph to carry us to the finish line
[02:52:25] ‹MasterWalks› ‹@Calindu› http://elementscommunity.org/forum/forum-game...
[02:52:25] ‹Calindu› Because let's be serious, if the default play is to not lynch every day, then mafia has to do nothing to protect themselves, and we'll have no information to work with
[02:53:08] ‹MasterWalks› I say we no lynch every day and wait for mafia to NK themselves
[02:53:38] ‹Calindu› I can't take these accusations serious, I already addressed the fact that I find it baseless in the thread
[02:54:23] ‹Calindu› I'm not sure who said it, but Espithel didn't defend because there was nothing to actually defend against
[02:54:56] ‹Calindu› Look in dd's case, Link came and presented a solid case that dd had counter arguments for
[02:55:26] ‹Calindu› You came with a baseless hunch that's based on meta talk, there's nothing you can counter here
[02:56:15] ‹MasterWalks› damnit. We lynched a town already based on a hunch, and a shittier one than mine. trust me and lynch him.
[02:56:39] ‹dawn_to_dusk› There was more information to gain out of Espi if we kept him alive
[02:56:40] ‹Calindu› I know it was a shitty hunch, I even said I don't get it
[02:56:58] ‹dawn_to_dusk› There wasn't much information about JCJ, but there was a ton of information if we lynched dd
[02:57:16] ‹dawn_to_dusk› Because of all the discussion about it
[02:57:20] ‹Calindu› Look, MW, I don't believe you are mafia, but I also don't believe the town should follow your play here, at least for now
[02:57:33] ‹dawn_to_dusk› There is some information about the JCJ lynch, especially since he flipped GA
[02:57:41] ‹MasterWalks› what is there to gain if we dont lynch him? The exact same thing can be said about jcj and keeping him alive
[02:57:53] ‹MasterWalks› I gtg now. Ill be back later
[02:58:26] MasterWalks left.
[02:58:42] ‹dawn_to_dusk› JCJ wasn't under fire
[02:58:45] ‹dawn_to_dusk› Espi was
[02:59:05] ‹dawn_to_dusk› I mean obviously JCJ was under fire
[02:59:08] ‹dawn_to_dusk› Otherwise he wouldn't have died
[02:59:09] ‹Calindu› JCJ couldn't even defend, there was no info out of it
[02:59:19] Guest-Phoenix-b838e joined.
[02:59:19] ‹Calindu› JCJ wasn't here when the lynch happened
[02:59:38] ‹dawn_to_dusk› Exactly, which is why the JCJ lynch was bad
[02:59:50] ‹dawn_to_dusk› Which is something that you agreed with anyway
[03:00:29] ‹dawn_to_dusk› The only info we gained was suspicions based on if Mafia knew JCJ was GA
[03:00:44] ‹dawn_to_dusk› Which can be tracked to mafia being Dragonfly
[03:00:50] ‹dawn_to_dusk› I'm making a post about this anyway though

[dawn to dusk]

You need to understand that while yes, Day 1 lynch when we had no N0 kill can be seen as bad, and can definitely be an option, if Mafia also has an informative role (like Psion from last game), they can gain a lot of information.

Damn, it's good to be back. Requesting Heal/Buffs on me.

Due to this there's a chance that ian targeted Link. Therefore there's a chance that other people have had their role blocked too. Assuming Link wasn't trying to prove Graboid, we can assume he was targeted by Warden, or another such ability (though I think Warden is the only one). As such, Psion, if you find Warden, this can be useful information. Naturally, don't reveal yet. But do target the people who you think would be scummy, or the people who you think would have wanted to block buffs on Link.

Alternatively, Flayer targeted Ian. This result occurs if nobody says they were blocked, or if Ian says he didn't target Link. So either someone found Ian scummy enough to roleblock (which is weird), or mafia roleblocked him. Which means that Flayer can be someone to look into. Shock claimed Flayer, and he very well might be. But that claim didn't really lead anywhere.

If Ian didn't target Link, which would mean Flayer targeted Ian, this allows mafia Dragonfly to target Link, outing JCJ as GA. Then N0 NK just happened to target a Graboid. Btw if dd is town Graboid then the people who voted for him are super suspicious. This is also interesting, noting that FFQ supposedly targeted dd. Mafia FFQ, then dual target dd with Queen and NK would be a completely valid approach for them here, especially if other roles of theirs can get information.

And of course the option that JCJ targeted himself, mafia tried to target him, failed, and seeing that he voted (and therefore was not Graboid), pushed a lynch on him. ~Theory from Calindu

[dawn to dusk]

Spoiler for Chatlog:

[12:02:28] ‹dawn_to_dusk› Thing is, JCJ didn't say that he was roleblocked
[12:02:42] ‹Calindu› I doubt he was roleblocked
[12:04:04] ‹dawn_to_dusk› If he targeted Link N0 and mafia has a Warden
[12:05:53] ‹Calindu› I'm not sure tbh, I believe the events were that mafia failed killing JCJ N0 and since he voted, there was a good chance of him being GA
[12:06:05] ‹Calindu› So they just forced a lynch on him
[12:07:04] ‹dawn_to_dusk› I would have liked to know if he targeted Link
[12:07:12] ‹dawn_to_dusk› It's a shame we can't
[12:07:51] ‹Mobian› Who caught the firefly?
[12:08:50] ‹Calindu› Dd claimed he caught one
[12:10:18] ‹dawn_to_dusk› But why would jcj be the NK target
[12:10:36] ‹Mobian› Random roll
[12:10:39] ‹dawn_to_dusk› I mean, that could be the same as anyone
[12:11:06] ‹MasterWalks› Wasn't he target N0 last game?
[12:11:13] ‹Mobian› He was
[12:11:51] ‹MasterWalks› I think there's just something about him that gets him targeted. Mafia must think he smells bad.
[12:14:36] ‹Mobian› Dunno. Sub made that call last time. I spent most of my focus on you, MW.
[12:14:56] ‹Calindu› Experienced players get killed more often early on, I believe
[12:15:34] ‹dawn_to_dusk› Sure, but twice in a row?
[12:15:46] ‹dawn_to_dusk› Considering Ian was voted the most valuable player last game
[12:16:44] ‹Calindu› I don't think that matters, I believe there was a time a few years back when one player was either nightkilled N0 or probably mafia lol
[12:18:36] ‹dawn_to_dusk› Of course this reasoning is the same as the reasoning of "Someone can't be mafia twice in a row"
[12:18:43] ‹dawn_to_dusk› Which isn't something I agree with
[12:21:24] ‹Calindu› Yeah, that reason just makes no sense
[12:21:41] ‹Calindu› Also, can you update the chatlog in the thread please? I'm going to sleep
[12:21:49] ‹dawn_to_dusk› Sure
[12:21:58] ‹Calindu› Thanks

This conversation is a direct continuation from the last one

[Mobian]

If Ian didn't target Link, which would mean Flayer targeted Ian, this allows mafia Dragonfly to target Link, outing JCJ as GA. Then N0 NK just happened to target a Graboid. Btw if dd is town Graboid then the people who voted for him are super suspicious. This is also interesting, noting that FFQ supposedly targeted dd. Mafia FFQ, then dual target dd with Queen and NK would be a completely valid approach for them here, especially if other roles of theirs can get information.

The timing here doesn't seem to make sense, as the mafia wouldn't have gotten the results until D1. The N0 NK is completely blind, the only information they have is the identities of their allies.

[dawn to dusk]

I mean mafia obviously wouldn't want to NK a Graboid. They'd blind target dd with both FFQ and NK. If he survives, they'd find out something that stuck.

This theory is completely wrong though, for the reason that dd voted D1

[ddevans96]

You really think I'd have rolled dirty twice in a row?

Gambler's fallacy.

No. I am, however, annoyed that we don't seem to like evidence, and would rather strike out blindly in the asinine hopes that we get lucky enough to hit a mafia. Explain to me who that helps, aside from mafia. Thanks to us blindly shooting in the dark, we just killed off one of our strongest defenders. So yeah, I'm a tad salty. If you think that's enough to make me mafia, then so be it. It's not like we need proof to kill anyone, anyways.

Good opinion and confident mindset. However, I want to reiterate that jcj was not merely a shot in the dark - I didn't want to die, another person scumread, and we moved the wagon. If you think that suggests something about me or iancu, that's fair, but ultimately that's just how the game is - we could all be town and we just got unlucky. And it's not like we had reliable evidence anywhere else, either.

For what it's worth, I don't read Mobian as mafia. I see more aggressive+eager town play, not mafia.

I can't add more much rn, I'm away from home, no phone access, and only able to use this computer for a brief while - apologies. I should be more active tomorrow night.


I want to state publicly - if you have any questions for me, ask me directly, and they will get answered to the best of my ability - otherwise I may not always be able to play at full activity.

[shockcannon]

On the off chance I die, I did not do what seems obvious. Also look at who I've voted for.