[17:32:14] ‹Espithel› ‹@moehrpi› Sure. Until we know who a single mafia is, a lot of our information is weak because nothing's certain.
[17:32:33] ‹Espithel› Once we get the first lynch, we can look at how other people reacted to that mafia.
[17:33:06] ‹moehrpi› ‹@Espithel› That makes a lot of sense. I actually just misread.
[17:33:28] ‹moehrpi› I thought about the first Nightkill. Somehow I missed 'lynch'...
[17:33:49] ‹moehrpi› Thanks for clearing that up. :flinch:
[17:34:43] ‹Espithel› Another truism is that if we've got one scum, we can look at previous nightkills to try and see why the mafia killed those people. Maybe they said something another mafia member didn't like?
[17:35:46] ‹Espithel› We can't really do that until we've got one kill because of the good old toxic townie motif: I'm defending Walks super, super hard, for example. So if I flip scum, it's going to look real, real bad on him.
[17:35:58] ‹Espithel› Ditto cal/kae.
[17:36:26] ‹Espithel› Sometimes, the mafia like to use that to try and make somebody look scummy.
Also note that I didn't suggest an inactivity lynch. Evans seems pretty certain that there's one scum who hasn't voted.
The pool of people who haven't voted is pretty small. So if we lynch from there (randomly or educated), we have a better chance of killing scum than a random lynch. (All bad arguments for lynching have the same probability as a random lynch of killing someone, imo.)
That was the train of thought. Criticise it how you will.
Poll
