Elements Mafia 70 - by Linkcat

[iancudorinmarian]

I was so sure he was graboid.

[Mobian]

I was so sure he was graboid.

Me too....

[mathman101]

Since we are at the point of do or die, I am gonna share my role and all the info I have gathered so far in the hopes we can all compile the info gathered to find a mafia today and try to stop the loss at the end of today.


Ok, if i have counted right we currently have 6 people alive; 2 of which are mafia and 4 are civilians.
Currently alive: iancu, Sub, Naii, Mobi, Oa, and math

If we lynch a civ tonight we are down to 3C - 2M, and then a nightkill would make it 2C - 2M forcing a civ loss due to parity. Today we must lynch a mafia (or hope there is still some type of protection from the nightkill) to avoid losing to the mafia.


I am the Dragonfly, and have used my ability every night possible to search out as much info as possible and last night I believe I hit the gold mine I was looking for.

Night 0 - JCJ, and the ability failed.
Knowing now that jcj was antlion I would assume he had used his ability to burrow and protect himself that first night. Up until his death I had assumed he was grabboid.

Night 1 - iancu, iancu visited JCJ
I think iancu commented somewhere that jcj wasn't targetable(i can't find the quote otherwise I would add it in, sorry), and that solidified my assumption that jcj is probably grabboid and not antlion as he couldn't use the ability 2 rounds in a row.

Night 2 - coffeeditto, and the ability failed.
As requested by Oa's comment here I had targeted one of the 3 suspected players. But since it failed my guess was that maybe the mindflayer or the warden targeted me, but still a little unsure of that.

Night 3 - Submachine, Sub visited Oa
I wasn't sure at this point (and still unsure) what this info could do for me. partially didn't dig into it more though due to RL time limitations during that day/night phase.

Night 4 - PlayerOa, he visited iancu, Sub, and mathman
After looking through the roles again I realized that firefly is the only one able to target 3 players at once. From this deduction Oa is either a firefly(the more likely scenario) or he is a fate egg that gained firefly(possible, but less likely, especially since weeby already rolled up as a fate egg).

This means that one of the 3 targets that firefly targeted(iancu. Sub, or mathman) is a mafia.

For those that are still alive here is a rough scum read that I am currently feeling:
(really civy > partially civy > neutral > partially scummy > really scummy)
(order listed by sign-up list order)
Iancu - he gave me an odd feeling at the start of the game and it hasn't fully gone away. This previous nights info has pushed him from neutral with a hairline scummy read to a partially scummy read.
Sub - he has given more of a neutral feeling, but has had a few sparks of scumminess. He has pm'd me at least once to notify me that i am not posting enough and should post more to avoid modkill. While I do appreciate it, i knew and stated when signing up that RL takes precedence and that i may not be posting lots during this game, and have been checking enough to make sure I am not modkilled. Now he may be pm'ing me as a mafia to post more so that they have more to use against me, or as a civy to get more reads and possible info for finding the mafia. this is why i am leaning neutral and not scum-ish or civ-ish.
Naii - hard to read here due to the low amount of posting. he has posted a total of 5 times in this thread, 4 plus the sign-up post. I know he has stated he is busy with RL and that he has skimmed over what is being said from time to time. But with the low content while I want to go neutral I feel that I should go partial scum due to the lack of content and assistance here.
Mobi - he has had some good plays overall, and has also made some bad accusations on now dead players that we know to be civ. for this I lean towards the partially scum side.
Oa - I wasn't fully sure on Oa, and since learning that he is firefly I have tried looking at the different strategies behind his most recent target pack whether he was or wasn't a mafia. I couldn't find a good reason for a mafia firefly to target a fellow mafia member unless he was trying to throw off our scent should there be another info role out there (but this seemed like a long shot). More likely I figured that Firefly as a civy would be targeting rotating groups to try and narrow down which set was the mafia member. This feels more civy like, so I will put him as a partially civy.

I know I don't have any way to clear my name as being possibly the mafia from that group of 3 that firefly targeted, but best I can do is state as much as I know and try to help fill in the missing puzzle pieces to find that last mafia and hopefully prove my drive to catch them outweighs the risk that I am mafia leading a goose chase.


I really want to hear from iancu and Sub what they both have to say for themselves, but if I need to put pressure/vote on one I am leaning iancu.


TL;DR
If we don't lynch a mafia today then civ team loses.
I am dragonfly, Oa is firefly.
One of iancu/Sub/math is mafia.

[Mobian]

With mathman's info, we have to ask ourselves why hasn't any of PlayerOa's ability uses been made public since the first Day phase? What is capable of blocking that ability? Adding to that point, without the ability officially triggering, we have no role information on the three he targeted.

So let's solve the first problem. Who has a role that could have blocked Firefly and is still alive?

[Mobian]

With mathman's info, we have to ask ourselves why hasn't any of PlayerOa's ability uses been made public since the first Day phase? What is capable of blocking that ability? Adding to that point, without the ability officially triggering, we have no role information on the three he targeted.

So let's solve the first problem. Who has a role that could have blocked Firefly and is still alive?

EBWOP: I didn't see the part about a False God being revealed, so I'll amend it to what has stopped the FF's ability until now?

[JonathanCrazyJ]

...you.. read my bluff.. well played...

**dies**

[Submachine]

I was about to come forth with the same problem of Lynch-or-lose after the night phase was over.

I believe what math said is true, in which case, today's lynch should be between me, iancu and math. His testimony also lines up with my actions. I will come back to this later in this post.

I don't have a solid defense either, so all I can do is come out in the open with everything I know.

What I am is a Psion, and my findings are as follows:

N0 - RootRanger
He was a Phoenix, but this information quickly fell flat, because he revealed himself right after.

N1 - DoubleCapitals
He was a Golden Nymph, but he also died during that night.

N2 - iancu
He was a Pharaoh. I could not do much with this information.

N3 - PlayerOa
But my ability failed. This is where math's testimony lines up with one of my actions. I thought that Insig was blocking me, but now I think he was blocking Oa instead.
My theory that day was that Insig blocked me and he also lied about not turning into a Firefly. Shock's last words also strengthened my belief.

N4 - mathman
I can confirm he is Dragonfly.

I can also confirm that I sent him a reminder to post last day, because I was afraid that if we lose a Town to modkill that day, Town would have lost by now.
(Despite not knowing his primary role, this was a no-drawback move for me, because if he is Town, he would not get modkilled, and if he was Mafia, he would get reminded by his peer anyway.)

Getting back to the pool of Sub, iancu and math, there is a red flag that sticks out to me.

Here are my pre-Day5 reads:

• iancu: Overall neutral, because I cannot decide if he uses reverse psychology or reverse reverse psychology, but at least he posted actively.
• math: He has't posted anything of substance until now, which I usually associate with a mafia behavior. Other than this though, he would be neutral too.

So I know about myself that I am Town, so my choice is either iancu or math. Math coming out with this felt like he was on the side of the Firefly, but I took that with a grain of salt because I found math a bit shadier than ian beforehand. Then I realized that math did not form this plan, he just found out at the right time that he was targeted. Eventually all this information would have seen light, and admittedly, coming out with it first did feel like a Town-lean at first, while throwing shade on ian. He probably realized this, otherwise he could have just waited for Oa to say the same. Mafia using the counter-defense on the last day is something I have spotted in Mafia 50 before, and I was right about it that time.

This does not reveal to me whether math is Mafia, but it made me cautious about instantly trusting math. Before voting, I would like to hear ian's side of the story too.

[iancudorinmarian]

PlayerOa - voted on me when the train was on Insig. If he were mafia, he'd have no reason to try to divert the vote to someone else.
Mobian - I've suggested him some targets in the past few nights and I must say I'm very surprised his protection never worked. Also very surprised he's not dead by now. What kind of mafia lets the angel survive for this long? That's either some grand plan or mobian is mafia. I'm leaning towards the latter.
Submachine - analysis below
mathman - analysis below
Naii - basically useless the whole game. Might want to roleclaim or do something if he wants to change that.

N3 probably insig targeted PlayerOa, which is why his ability failed. Reference
Then he quoted this awfully convenient message. Nice breadcrumbs right there.
Sub also laid suspicion on Coffee, which you would never do if you were mafia Reference

So insig targeted PlayerOa and learned that he was targeted by a psion, which turns out to be Sub.

N2 masterwalks targeted mathman, I suppose, since he was warden. Reference

@Mobian, please list your GA targets, night by night.

tl;dr; mathman is mafia. I'm not sure yet who his partner is or what their role is, but we'll have more info after the lynch.

mathman101 (1) - iancudorinmarian

[iancudorinmarian]

@Mobian, actually don't list the target for the last night, that would show who you can't target the next night.

[Mobian]

N0: MasterWalks
N1: Mobian
N2: iancudorinmarian
N3: Mobian
N4: REDACTED

[PlayerOa]

What mathman said is all true. I'm firefly and did indeed target ian, Sub and mathman, and I strongly believe the two former are the remaining mafia.

N0 - RootRanger
He was a Phoenix, but this information quickly fell flat, because he revealed himself right after.
Public information.

N1 - DoubleCapitals
He was a Golden Nymph, but he also died during that night.
Public information.

N2 - iancu
He was a Pharaoh. I could not do much with this information.
Of course you know if you both are mafia.

N3 - PlayerOa
But my ability failed. This is where math's testimony lines up with one of my actions. I thought that Insig was blocking me, but now I think he was blocking Oa instead.
My theory that day was that Insig blocked me and he also lied about not turning into a Firefly. Shock's last words also strengthened my belief.
Ok so this is the interesting one. We know by what mathman said that you targeted me. We also know for sure my ability failed that night. But no new information whatsoever has been revealed by your role, making a pretty easy Psion claim.

N4 - mathman
I can confirm he is Dragonfly.
He pretty much just confirmed himself.

The fact I confirmed Firefly to ian was a mistake. My theory is that Sub was Crusader, hitting Coffeeditto to let his Mind Flayer ability live. His target on me N3 was not Mind Flayer - not Psion. Can't say for sure, but this does make good sense in my eyes. Claiming Psion with this "evidence" is way too easy.

Not to mention this:

@ian: I just wanted to know if you were confirmed, because then we could have one more person to share plans with. At this point, it is enough if the Firefly trusts you.

I did, taking the chance because the game looked really bleak from our point of view. What I should have realized is that it could be a scheme where Sub indirectly wanted to influence the Firefly (me) to PM ian, which I did. More information for you, and my ability was blocked the night after I told ian. The same night as you targeted me.


My scum reads are therefore as following:

Sub = ian > Naii > Mobian > math

No reason math would confirm my targets if he was mafia. And I'm still strongly convinced that FG's won't roll Angel, even if it isn't specified in the rules.


mathman101 (1) - iancudorinmarian
Submachine (1) - PlayerOa

[PlayerOa]

For what it's worth, here are my other targets:
night 0: d2d, Mobian, MW - civvy
night 2: Insig, MW, Coffee - failed
night 3: Insig, Sub, mathman - failed