Elements Mafia 73 - by PlayerOa

[kaempfer13]

Agreed shock; either im terrible wrong and thus a liability or everyone else is never gonna get it

[Ge0metry v1.2]

@kaempf

Do you want me to reveal? I can definitely save you, but I'm pretty sure town's best chance of winning at this point is for you to die now.

I'm having troubles deducing what shock is hinting at here, what role could he be that would save kaemp? I thought there was only one GN in the game and it was www3 (rip)

[kaempfer13]

In case anyone is interested my only scum game was poisonous vigilantes on mu. It should be night and day. Hm, night! Im going to bed

[rob77dp]

Anyone else anxiously dreading what shock is going to (or not) reveal?? :'(

[Linkcat]

No.

[serprex]

I WANT TO
BELIEVE

[rob77dp]

Anybody here?? Looking lonely in this here thread...

Some loose reads list... it feels off or awkward given the EOD1 at first glance, but looking just a little closer I think the bottom four here could make sense if you believe that kdz really was just unable to be at EOD, Cal wasn't able to get a vote in edge-wise as he stated, and kae was stuck in a whirlwind EOD as a wolf without his sidekicks to sway votes so he stayed where it made sense to try to save buddy Annele. That is, three wolves were not truly present at EOD1 and one was paralyzed a bit - kae posted a few times so was present I would say but was not up for moving a vote or anything while most everyone else that was present+active did some vote moving and solving/discussing/participating.

Without a flip on Day 1 there just a bit too little information compared to typical Day 2's... vote analysis needs more names we can color to get more concrete, for my taste.


serprex

vv
MasterWalks
Submachine

v
iancudorinmarian
andretimpa
shockcannon

n+
TheonlyrealBeef
Linkcat

n-
DoubleCapitals
Ge0metry v1.2

w
killsdazombies
kaempfer13
Calindu

ww
Annele

[andretimpa]

Okay, I'm caught up - here is my read list so far

vv
serp

Spoiler for reasons:

duh

v
MW

Spoiler for reasons:

I'm having an aneurism trying to understand how someone backed by a team would be making these types of mistakes. I was scumreading him before, but for now I'm more convinced that he's just an incompetent townie  (can very easily change depending on how people flip)

n+
Ge0

Spoiler for reasons:

I'm still giving him the benefit of the doubt about being new, but I expect more content on the next days, or he'll be going down in the list. What he has post so far has been on the neutral side

rob

Spoiler for reasons:

I'm not ready to completely remove my tinfoil hat about rob just yet. This theory is the main reason:

Mafia has an anubis. That anubis has secured NK on me (to be refunded whenever) to prevent Heal blocking

Either rob is town fate egg psion who was blocked due to that immaterial, or rob's anubis scum & came up with a "I was actually psion" story to cover for his night action. If link/rob are w/w, link's plans would be created after he knows rob's anubis roll to setup that play

but then again I like that he's still second guessing himself about trusting Link (that's a very wise behaviour imo)

n

Link

Spoiler for reasons:

I don't think it's wise to put Link higher than n unless there is mechanical confirmation, this guy is just too hard to read.

ian/kdz/DC

Spoiler for reasons:

Not enough content to get a read. This better change soon.

Sub

Spoiler for reasons:

I really don't understand his style so far, but apparently that's his normal. Will have to try to get a read of him out of votes I guess

n-
torb

Spoiler for reasons:

There's a bit of WIFOM about the way he'd have used Anubis, but I have to think a bit more about this and his possible connection with Cal. Personally I'm more inclined to believe he's town!shrieker. This could change if kaemp flips town, but for now just a light scum lean.

Cal

Spoiler for reasons:

This is just an association read with torb. Apart from the Green Nymph stuff he hasn't posted much (which makes sense in retrospect as keeping low due to his role + IRL work)

shock

Spoiler for reasons:

• Seems to be holding info that could help kaemp
• Has "confirmed" kaemp yet is voting for him
• Vouches for my biggest scumreads

Either he's insanely deep inside his tinfoil, or he's scum and miscalculated how much MW would be disruptive to his kaemp claim (after all, even kaemp's egg+GN theory and kaemp being town don't mechanicaly confirm shock, since mafia can be egg)

Annele

Spoiler for reasons:

After rereading her D1 stuff and the rest of the things she posted I think I might have been a bit hasty with my previous scum read. The most damning avidence against her is the way EOD1 developped (which I admit I don't know how to make a good read of). So I'm moving her from w to n- until more evidence shows up.

w
kaemp

Spoiler for reasons:

See my previous post

[rob77dp]

kdz-

What did you read or see from kae that took you from a very loose n+ on kae to today being confused, while knowing a surprising amount of what kae is doing - are you all caught up?

It just reads like quite a lot of talk about kae leading to your vote on him - who else do you currently suspect besides kae??

Spoiler for kdz quote #1, recent vote:

Alright, so Im a touch confused by the redoubling on kae.

So, kae is claiming a crusadery boi, but he claims to have not used his ability to try and get a vulture with it. Idk if that alone screams mafia or just a deeply flawed plan, but thats his case, is that correct?

kae is also claiming to be confirmed by shock, but i never quite understood how or why that happened, im sure its buried somewhere in the thread, but if anyone has a basic "this and this" I'd appreciate it

it also seems that that confirmation has shifted uhhh dramatically. Why is that? If its some backroom serp/moe stuff thats fine, but Im just curious how we got here. I knew kae was on the susblock, but this has been... interesting.

Haha, the reason im on the chopping block is because 3+ mafia are putting full effort into it. There is actually a chance im fully confirmed town already (who knows whatshocks doing). Even if not there is sth in my iso thats a deadgiveaway that im town, unfortunately it becomes wifom if im the one to point it out.The reason I was waiting for someone to claim vulture is we have an egg that is not a priority nk and we might have more vultures.also literally any other role is barely more than fluff unless you can catch someone in a lie.

However, this is enough for me rn. Open to change, as im not 100% sold on it, but its probably our most likely wolf atm, even if this is a bit of a bandwagon vote

Annele (4) - rob77dp, Linkcat, DoubleCapitals, iancudorinmarian
kaempfer13 (8) - TheonlyrealBeef, Ge0metry v1.2, andretimpa, Calindu, MasterWalks, shockcannon, serprex, killsdazombies
Linkcat (1) - Annele

side note, ill be gone around EoD tomorrow, so if theres any revaluations, id really prefer if they weren't made during an EoD madness phase.

Spoiler for kdz quote #2, the last time he gave reads including kae:

Hi. This is me rising from my grave. Ill be on the level with you, I skimmed the truly massive quote walls because I CBA.

A lot this stuff is just general feelings. I know very little and my rust is showing a bit more than Id like. I usually spend most of my in person games just talking shit, but I find myself lost in the walls of text to analyze.

serp (vv)
moe (vv)
Confirmed, which is nice

Sub (n+)
Oh this is the sub I remember

kaemp (n+)
Got good feelings about the lad. No idea why, but everything sounds earnest.

Ge0 (n+)
Just doing they're own thing, but trying to respond when questioned. Feels normal.

shock (n+)
I really appreciate the sheer chaotic energy that radiates from every post. Please continue. Also, they're doing what I do IRL, just in text form. 12/10

DC (n)
More shitposting please

ian (n)
I dont disagree with anything they say. The comments on skimming the thread and the general low content to each post (just a sentence or two) gives me a "Town who CBA give 110%" but could very well be a mafia trying to slip under the radar

Cal (n)
Im not getting a read. No calls for action, just advising caution.

Annele (?)
Scumread rob hard. As rob pointed out, theyre initial hit felt odd, but the back down felt real. IDK, I have my reservations.

MW (?)
I dont know what it is, but something just feels off. I haven't quite put my finger one what it is exactly.

andretimpa (?)
Similarly, something just feels off, but I can't tell if thats just because /everyone/ is sus of timpa, or if theyre actually scum. Everything they do just screams neutral ground to me, which I know is ironic coming from an equally neutral list.


I just default don't listen to anything these three say because they could sell water to a fish.
rob ()
While I generally don't like the feeling of shooting players N0. I think it was correct but it makes me :////
torb ()
Feels a little aggro in spots, but if I recall thats pretty on brand.
Link ()
The banter is fun, please continue. It makes catching up fun.


I'm going to hold back on voting for now, but I do intend to cast a vote before the day is up. I just want some more time to think.

[kaempfer13]

It seems to me you are deeply wrong about things, so hopefully you guys being so sure that I'm scum will be the necessary wake up call for you guys. Enough of that, i agree that my lynch will probably be necessary to progress the game, so nice going guys!

As promised, the rest of my freetime day will be spent on the following five parter:
1. why calindu is scum
2. why TorB is scum
3. Why Linkcat is scum (boy, so many reasons, I might skip this one or shorten it)
4 How these guys being scum fits together.
5. Remaining townreads and suspects (c'mon guys I'm not the messiah)

[kaempfer13]

Well cal is pretty straightforward. other than mechanical discussion his day 1 is literally just scumreading any person that had a wagon formed on them at any point, for a copypasted reason. i struggle to see that as a real thoughtprocess.

Also, despite scumreading Linkcat he doesnt vote for him at any point. (ok getting ahead of myself, this and the green nymph targeting Anubis thing mostly belong into part 4).

[kaempfer13]

rest of the case files will be a lot longer, so I'm not working on them until after lunch (but before lynch obv)