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Offline rob77dp

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Re: Elements Mafia 68 - by Kuroaitou http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=64236.msg1260963#msg1260963
« Reply #1920 on: March 21, 2017, 03:40:54 AM »
reads update... a longer form post to follow shortly, too. (this list put together PRIOR to the upcoming post...)

not-Criminal-reads:
UTA

lesser-not-Criminal-reads:
gino
Sol
Sub
mathman

smaller scum-leans:
fabian
JCJ
dawn
kdz

scum-reads:
Coffee
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Offline rob77dp

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Re: Elements Mafia 68 - by Kuroaitou http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=64236.msg1260964#msg1260964
« Reply #1921 on: March 21, 2017, 03:44:38 AM »
Spoiler for Luna's reads:
Town
Coffee
UTA <-- 99.9% not-Criminal
Solaris

Possibly Town
gino
fabian
DC <-- flipped Town
ian <-- flipped Town
ddevans <-- flipped Town

No Read
JCJ
dawn
Submachine
mathman
kdz

Possible Scum
rob <-- I am Town.
It is just so very very unlikely Criminal!Luna does not put _at least one_ of her Criminal teammates into the town sections - if not BOTH of them - that I feel very confident in seeing at least one of Coffee / Sol / gino / fabian flip red.

In my opinion, those four in order from most likely scum to not as likely scum: Coffee >> fabian > gino >> Sol.

Nothing comes to mind for how to dive much further into that Null section, at the moment. Maybe later.




Spoiler for Coffee's reads:
I'll just use everyone else's format.

Town
Coffee - Hi, I am me.
UTA - His killing of Espithel confirms him as town, as that could not have been maf killing maf as Kuro said maf can't kill eachother on purpose. Generally waits to jump aboard a train, and seeks reasoning. (99.9% not-Criminal)
Rob - Talks too much to not be town, and is actively looking for maf by questioning anyone and everyone. That being said, he likes to push on everyone maybe a little too much. Possibly INT. (I am Town)

Town Lean
killsda - Partakes in discussions, delayed our lynch yesterday to try and make sure we really wanted to lynch W3 instead of me or Sol. Hasn't said an awfully large amount of things, though.
Submachine - I can't really tell, but I get a town feeling from him and I think he is thinking more about how to win the game for town instead of how to be clear; something I'm not doing :V
JCJ - Approaches situations logically which translates to him being towny. I think he saying/doing what makes the most sense as opposed to what everyone else is doing.

Neutral/Too hard to tell
ddevans - I have no idea about him. I think he's slightly more town than neutral, but he could go either way. I know he's posted a lot, but I can't confidently call him either role. Possibly INT. (flipped Town)
iancudorinmarian - I haven't seen much from him besides him liking to follow the towny peoples' calls. (flipped Town)


Scum Lean
Lunaris - I appreciate her firmly believing I am town, and I think she is town as well because placing trust in a town-called-scum is useless for maf. However, she has a playstyle that is very scum-like: coasting a lot, not giving fully helpful answers/replies and being pretty vague with everything. Plus, not sure why she thinks rob is scum. (flipped Criminal)
Solaris - He went from 'I don't give a fuck' to an aggressive pusher, almost similar to Rob. The reason why I think Sol is scum and not Rob is because of this huge shift in playstyle. Agree with him on Fabian though.
DC - Too quiet, maybe a little giddy when it comes to lynching/bandwagons. Not sure, though. (flipped Town)

Scum
Mathman101 - Thank you for saving me! But, mathman has been nearly silent and gave no reason for saving me or much reasoning behind his actions at all. Coasting and not being very affirmative or supportive of his own choices.
Fabian - He's too quiet and riding too much to be beneficial to us even if he was town. Not sure how the jailer thing worked out, but I pretty firmly believe he is maf.
That is very unlikely to be a towny/genuine read from Coffee on Luna (a flipped Criminal) leading me to suspect Coffee of being a Criminal (I have posted other thoughts on additional aspects of my Coffee=Criminal read)... if so, then:

* Given HOW Coffee is supporting his "Scum" section reads I find it unlikely either math or fabian is Criminal (especially mathman since Coffee's reason for having him there is what I used to get a wagon going on math at critical juncture/EOD where Criminals are very unlikely to just "sacrifice" a teammate considering they're already down Espi at that point). -- math/fabian maybe town.

* It is likely a Criminal!Coffee does NOT put TWO teammates right next to each in the "Scum Lean" section -- Sol likely town being adjacent to Luna there.

* It is likely a Criminal!Coffee has his teammate in the town-read sections -- kdz / Sub / JCJ.

* dawn being left out seems more likely not-a-teammate as scum tend to be careful about where they place teammates so omitting one would have to be intentional and doesn't fit here, to me -- dawn possibly town.




Now, I bring this puppy home:
1. Likely one or two scum among Coffee >> fabian > gino >> Sol (analysis of Criminal!Luna's reads list).
2. math/fabian maybe town.
3. Sol likely town.
4. Likely one scum among kdz / Sub / JCJ.
5. dawn is leaning town.

-->
Overlaying this with my own reads I arrive at this POE:
Coffee > kdz >> JCJ/Sub >> gino.
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Offline Solaris

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Re: Elements Mafia 68 - by Kuroaitou http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=64236.msg1260965#msg1260965
« Reply #1922 on: March 21, 2017, 03:55:51 AM »
100% agree with that PoE ultimatum, in that order, rob. Are we going to lynch in that order, w/o further development?

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Re: Elements Mafia 68 - by Kuroaitou http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=64236.msg1260966#msg1260966
« Reply #1923 on: March 21, 2017, 03:56:58 AM »
I'm good with a Coffee lynch.

To the Intel comment about me - I only pushed for mass role claim after rob had already introduced the idea, and it was based on the assumption that we have no more than 2 of each role (which apparently not everyone here is convinced is the case). Since some players see it as a "cheap" strategy, I'm okay not doing it (though I don't see how it's cheap if it would help town). And btw, we already established that a mass role claim wouldn't help Intel b/c they need to know the actual role names, not just "Officer" or "Bodyguard" or whatever.

Offline killsdazombies

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Re: Elements Mafia 68 - by Kuroaitou http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=64236.msg1260967#msg1260967
« Reply #1924 on: March 21, 2017, 04:04:38 AM »
Mass roleclaim wouldnt even do anything unless people were foolish and revealed their /actual/ role name without being pressed into it via a counterclaim.

Offline killsdazombies

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Re: Elements Mafia 68 - by Kuroaitou http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=64236.msg1260968#msg1260968
« Reply #1925 on: March 21, 2017, 04:06:28 AM »
I dont even think the intel are anti-town anyway, it seems easier for the intel to win WITH town than win against it, no?

Offline killsdazombies

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Re: Elements Mafia 68 - by Kuroaitou http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=64236.msg1260969#msg1260969
« Reply #1926 on: March 21, 2017, 04:16:48 AM »
But, that caveat aside, heres my read list

Scum:
Dunno

Leaning scum:
Rob - with the standard grain of salt that comes along with a scum read of rob, however I would like to make a specific note. If coffee flips town, I robs entire order goes up in smoke, if the dust clears and coffee is town, this read will stray from a "mostly not accurate" back into the realm of accuracy.

That being said, I at this point, I think coffee with either be mafia, or intel, I had hope to strike gold with dc after he defended me, but the dc town, and the "oh no we killed a town" comment after the day phase ended, I dont see him being town. I hope he is though, I appreciated the backup.

Fabian - I'd really like him to talk more, and the less he talks the more I suspect him.

coffee - Mentioned above with rob

Neutral
d2d: Who knows what dawn is even doing anymore this game. Hes as inactive as DC was, but at least he had a big outburst about it. I'd like to note his outburst seemed to not really have direction, and I dont think it was a powerplay/move for us to get off him
Math: My opinion of him has changed since the great debate earlier where he basically gave up playing, and had us almost lynch him.
Sub: Says a lot of stuff that if said by anyone else would get them a scum read, he makes a lot of assumptions and presents himself as bulletproof, but thats how he normally plays anyway? Im not sure really what to make of it in a legitimate way, thus he is on the neutral board because I simply dont know how to approach him.
Solaris: Calls bullshit on everything I say at this point, which is irksome, but linkcat presented a solid case for his innocence, and it still holds good sway with me.
Gino: Talks too little for me to read accurately, but has a few comments about his ability use that atm can be used to make a town case, though later we should look back at them, when were running out roles or are mostly assured there isnt another jailor, as he denies a lot of jailings, despite claiming it.

Town
UTA - for obvious reasons

Offline dawn to dusk

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Re: Elements Mafia 68 - by Kuroaitou http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=64236.msg1260970#msg1260970
« Reply #1927 on: March 21, 2017, 04:19:02 AM »
I dont even think the intel are anti-town anyway, it seems easier for the intel to win WITH town than win against it, no?
With 2 mafia and 2 intel, they can create a majority at 4, and win with mafia with the supermajority, sending in Mafia's role names
Or at least that's how it would be if mafia and Intel could communicate which I'm pretty sure they can't
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Re: Elements Mafia 68 - by Kuroaitou http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=64236.msg1260971#msg1260971
« Reply #1928 on: March 21, 2017, 04:20:17 AM »
I think if intel and mafia could communicate, that would be something kuro would have informed us, and if they could, then they would certainly be on the same team.

Offline dawn to dusk

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Re: Elements Mafia 68 - by Kuroaitou http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=64236.msg1260972#msg1260972
« Reply #1929 on: March 21, 2017, 04:25:45 AM »
Looking at the information against coffee, I am fine with that lynch tomorrow. Sub I am kind of weary about though, and think that we might be able to look at him (unless I missed something clearing his name)

Main 2 scum reads I have at the moment
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Re: Elements Mafia 68 - by Kuroaitou http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=64236.msg1260976#msg1260976
« Reply #1930 on: March 21, 2017, 05:43:09 AM »
Looking through the reasoning in the last few posts, and DC coming up BG town leads me to agree to lynching coffee tomorrow during the day.



Also I'm curious if I should use my Hitman Ability 2 again tonight? Should I continue with Links "Please Shoot" list(DC , Dawn, and fabian)? Or should I find a new potentially scummy target? 
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Offline rob77dp

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Re: Elements Mafia 68 - by Kuroaitou http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=64236.msg1260977#msg1260977
« Reply #1931 on: March 21, 2017, 05:49:03 AM »
kdz, your insistence on scumreading me is ridiculous. Scum don't lynch scum by pushing their teammates for multiple days. You're being very lazy there which is understandable somewhat given my post count but to be lazy like that about reading me then ignore evidence lazily available to my not being criminalis very sketchy.
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