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Offline ColorlessGreenTopic starter

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AI4/Halfblood Stats Thread [1.321] - Decks and Spin Chance https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=50033.msg1082426#msg1082426
« on: June 24, 2013, 02:13:54 am »
Since AI4's HP was reduced to 150, there has been growing suspicion that they have become an excellent source of profit. However, tests have been infrequent and scattered. As a few recent forays into AI4 grinding by several people have indicated that it is probably a great source of money both unupped and upped, in the spirit of FGEI, the arena stats thread, the old AI3 TTW studies, and others, I decided it was time to start collecting some data.

There are two purposes to this study:


Spin Chance

First, I would like to expand on the work begun by kev, where he recorded the spins from 300 wins against AI4. I have recorded a good bit of wins which I will eventually add in to his numbers, but they seem to be reinforcing what he had already learned. Even though I don't expect the final result to be very different, I would like to get a collection of at least a thousand actual non-simulated in-game AI4 wins, ideally from several sources, to be able to be quite confident that we know the spin rates.

For now, though, working just with the approximate rate of one upped card per twelve wins which was shown in kev's study, it is apparent that AI4 is far ahead of AI3 and arena in terms of pure profit over time within the fully unupped meta. While there have been far fewer tests, it appears that AI4 is likely quite profitable upgraded as well - this remains to be seen.

If you would like to help collect spin chance stats, all you need to do is to pay attention when you defeat an AI4. Keep track of your total number of wins and the total number of upped and unupped cards you receive from the spins. It is not necessary to break down this part of the study by deck - we just need to know total wins and total cards received. As more stats are collected, I will periodically update the table in this thread with the new totals and the percentages. I would like a minimum of 20 wins included in any submission to the spin chance stats, just to cut down on the number of updates I need to make.


Decks

This is the more traditional part of the study, as seen in FGEI, arena stats, TTW studies, and others. As it seems quite probable that AI4 is an excellent target to get money, the question becomes what decks are the most effective at getting money from AI4 quickly. This part will follow the same general format as the arena stats thread. A minimum of 50 games with a given deck are required for the deck to be included, and 100+ are vastly preferred. Unlike the arena stats thread, TTW (average turns to win) is also required to be included here, as speed is of the essence. EM rate is not strictly required, though it is highly preferred. If you don't post an EM rate, I will probably just assume the EM rate is zero.

I would like to eventually have stats for both unupped (and ideally rareless) and upped, but I am more immediately concerned with the very early game decks, so unupped/rareless decks are what I'll mostly be personally testing. I would love any help from anyone who wants to test anything at any part of the game. The more participants, the better. If you're relatively new to the game but you want to help out with stats, this is a great way to do it - AI4 is a much easier target than any of the other AIs which are actively being studied.



For anyone curious about the profitability, at the time of this posting, it is my belief that top tier unupped/rareless AI4 farming decks are 1.5-2x as profitable as top tier unupped/rareless AI3/bronze/silver farming decks. I would not be surprised if the infrequent unupped FG farming decks are still more profitable, but I also wouldn't be surprised if an AI4 deck could be found that would surpass them. It also appears that even a mid-range AI4 deck can pull 1.2x the profit of a top tier AI3 deck - I'm not totally sure yet, but rough numbers right now say that you need about a 40% win rate/12 TTW against AI4 in order to roughly tie monodeath against AI3 for profit.

I am not sure about how profitable AI4 is upped, though the one test I've done so far seems to put it roughly equivalent to a low-to-middle range upped FG deck.

I hope to be able to collect enough stats to get a much better idea of the actual profit. If you want to contribute, please do. AI4 is a fun target to play against with their random decks - every game is different. AI4 is fast, too. They rarely present a strong defense, and most decks that can get to 100 hp quickly can generally get to 150 hp within a turn or two more.


Spin Chance Table

Code: [Select]
Player           Wins   Upped    Unupped
---------------- ------ -------- ---------
kev               300    23       67
treebeard xiii     54     2       12
Fippe94            20     2        6
ColorlessGreen    327    28       70
trashduke          40     2        4
ginandtonic        40     1       10
Blutrabe           42     4        3
TribalTrouble      40     5        4
Mythrilvael        85     9       20
RulacMage11        86    14       23
Pvt_14             70     8        9
ChemMan13          75     9       11
---------------- ------ -------- ---------
                 1179   107      239
                          9.08%   20.27%

Average extra profit per win: 117.90

Extra profit per win assumes that a successful upped spin is worth 1160 electrum (as assumed in FGEI) and a successful unupped spin is worth 62 electrum (as shown by Xeno's simulation), and is calculated as ((UppedWinRate * 1160) + (UnuppedWinRate * 62)). As a point of comparison, Xenocidius' simulation showed an average of 25.6 extra electrum per win from AI3.
« Last Edit: January 28, 2014, 09:55:39 pm by ColorlessGreen »

Offline ColorlessGreenTopic starter

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Re: AI4/Halfblood Stats Thread [1.321] - Decks and Spin Chance https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=50033.msg1082427#msg1082427
« Reply #1 on: June 24, 2013, 02:14:10 am »
Decks are sorted by UEI. UEI(333) is approximate electrum per hour assuming 333 turns/hour (i.e. 10.81 seconds/turn). UEI(250) is approximate electrum per hour assuming 250 turns/hour (i.e. 14.4 seconds/turn). For more details, see here.


Unupgraded Decks

HBGB by ColorlessGreen, testing by ColorlessGreen
W: 81   L: 69   W%: 54.00%   TTW: 10.73   EM: 1/81   EM%: 1.23%   UEI(333): 2162.01   UEI(250): 1623.13
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4sa 4sa 4sa 4sa 4sa 4vh 4vh 4vj 4vj 4vj 4vj 4vj 4vj 52t 55q 55q 590 590 590 590 590 5c7 5f6 5f6 5if 5if 5lm 5og 5og 61q 8pm

Psion Fractal Massacre (aka Psiontal) by Hazardus10, modified by ColorlessGreen, testing by ColorlessGreen
W: 32   L: 18   W%: 64.00%   TTW: 13.50   EM: 0/32   EM%: 0%   UEI(333): 2117.78   UEI(250): 1589.93
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61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 61t 61t 61t 61t 61t 61t 622 622 622 622 625 625 625 625 625 625 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 8pu

The Essential Half-blood Farmer by Essence, testing by ColorlessGreen
W: 66   L: 34   W%: 66.00%   TTW: 14.70   EM: 0/66   EM%: 0%   UEI(333): 2019.84   UEI(250): 1516.40
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61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 61o 61s 61s 61s 61s 61s 61t 61t 61t 61t 61t 61t 61v 61v 61v 61v 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 63a 8pu

Midnight Sun by ColorlessGreen, testing by ColorlessGreen
W: 52   L: 48   W%: 52.00%   TTW: 11.75   EM: 10/52   EM%: 19.23%   UEI(333): 2019.55   UEI(250): 1516.18
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5l9 5l9 5l9 5la 5la 5la 5la 5la 5la 5ld 5ld 5ld 5uk 5uk 5uk 5uk 5uk 5uk 5uk 5uk 5uu 5uu 5uu 5uu 5v1 5v1 5v1 5v1 5v1 5v1 8pq

Nightmares of the Past (aka Ghostmare), rareless version by Ascabi44, testing by ColorlessGreen
W: 59   L: 51   W%: 53.64%   TTW: 12.18   EM: 1/59   EM%: 1.69%   UEI(333): 1891.83   UEI(250): 1420.29
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5rg 5rg 5rg 5rg 5rg 5rg 5rg 5rg 5rg 5rg 5rg 5rg 5rk 5rk 5rk 5rk 5rk 5rk 5ru 5ru 5ru 5ru 5ru 5ru 5v1 5v1 5v1 5v1 5v1 5v1 8pt


Upgraded Decks

SoB Air Rush by dark ripper, testing by Leodip
W: 43   L: 7   W%: 86.00%   TTW: 6.58   EM: 0/43   EM%: 0%   UEI(333): 6186.51   UEI(250): 4644.53
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7ee 7ee 7ee 7ee 7ee 7ee 7ms 7ms 7ms 7ms 7ms 7ms 7mt 7mt 7mt 7mt 7mt 7mt 7mu 7mu 7mu 7mu 7mu 7mu 7nq 7nq 7nq 7nq 7nq 7nq 8po

Frankenshard Rush by TribalTrouble, testing by Blutrabe, further testing by TribalTrouble
W: 82   L: 18   W%: 82.00%   TTW: 6.71   EM: 0/82   EM%: 0%   UEI(333): 5738.32   UEI(250): 4308.05
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4vj 4vj 4vj 4vj 4vj 778 786 786 786 786 786 7ee 7ee 7ee 7ee 7ee 7ee 7nq 7nq 7nq 7nq 7nq 7nq 7tb 816 816 816 816 816 816 8po

Super-Shard Immorush by trashduke, testing by trashduke
W: 40   L: 10   W%: 80.00%   TTW: 6.80   EM: 0/40   EM%: 0%   UEI(333): 5500.38   UEI(250): 4129.41
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7dp 7dp 7dp 7dp 7dp 7dp 7ds 7ds 7ds 7ds 7ds 7ds 7du 7du 7ee 7ee 7ee 7ee 7ee 7mt 7mt 7mt 7mt 7mt 7mt 7n9 7nq 7nq 7nq 7nq 8po

Power Poison by RulacMage11, testing by RulacMage11
W: 44   L: 11   W%: 80.00%   TTW: 8.5   EM: 0/44   EM%: 0%   UEI(333): 4400.30   UEI(250): 3303.53
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6qq 6qq 6qq 6qq 6qq 6qq 6u2 6u2 6u2 6u2 71e 71e 71e 71e 71e 74a 74a 74a 74a 7ee 7ee 7ee 7n0 7n0 7qd 7qd 7tb 7tb 816 816 8pk

Your Offense is Now Diamonds by Higurashi, testing by ColorlessGreen
W: 75   L: 25   W%: 75.00%   TTW: 8.09   EM: 2/75   EM%: 2.67%   UEI(333): 4326.19   UEI(250): 3247.89
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6rk 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 77c 77c 77g 77g 77g 77g 77g 77g 77h 77h 77h 77h 77h 77h 8ps

JMZ Classic by Essence, modified by Mythrilvael, testing by Mythrilvael
W: 85   L: 15   W%: 85.00%   TTW: 9.79   EM: 10/85   EM%: 11.76%   UEI(333): 4280.37   UEI(250): 3213.49
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6qq 6qq 6qq 6qq 6qq 6qq 6tt 6u3 6u3 6u3 6u3 6u3 6u3 71b 745 77f 77g 7ah 7ai 7an 7dl 7dq 7gv 7k5 7n3 7q5 7q5 7t9 7t9 80b 8pj

Sky Balls by RulacMage11, testing by RulacMage11
W: 42   L: 8   W%: 84.00%   TTW: 9.43   EM: 0/42   EM%: 0%   UEI(333): 4199.97   UEI(250): 3153.13
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7gq 7gq 7hi 7hi 7hi 7hi 7jp 7jp 7jp 7jp 7k0 7k0 7mt 7mt 7mt 7mt 7mt 7mt 7n9 7n9 7nq 7nq 7nq 7nq 7nq 809 809 809 809 809 8pp

Gemstone Rush by Silux, testing by Silux
W: 195   L: 81   W%: 70.65%   TTW: 7.71   EM: 0/195   EM%: 0%   UEI(333): 4183.24   UEI(250): 3140.57
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58r 58r 6rk 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 778 77a 77a 77a 77a 77e 77e 77e 77e 77g 77g 77g 77g 77g 77g 77h 77h 8ps

Day Traitors by Essence, testing by Pyrodinium
W: 38   L: 12   W%: 76.00%   TTW: 9.76   EM: 11/38   EM%: 28.95%   UEI(333): 4000.76   UEI(250): 3003.60
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7jp 7jp 7jp 7jp 7jp 7jp 7jq 7jq 7jt 7jt 7jt 7jt 7jv 7jv 7jv 7jv 7k5 7k5 7k5 7k5 7n2 7n2 7tb 7tb 7tb 7th 7th 7th 7th 7th 7th 8pt

The Grand Wyrm by treebeard xiii, testing by treebeard xiii
W: 54   L: 46   W%: 54.00%   TTW: 6.50   EM: 0/54   EM%: 0%   UEI(333): 3551.11   UEI(250): 2666.00
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6u2 6u2 6u2 6u3 6u3 6u3 6u3 6u3 6u3 6ve 6ve 6ve 6ve 6ve 6ve 6ve 7jv 7jv 7jv 7mu 7mu 7mu 7mu 7mu 7nq 7nq 7nq 816 816 816 8pr

Mono-Life Rush by Pvt_14, testing by Pvt_14
W: 70   L: 30   W%: 70.00%   TTW: 11.00   EM: 11/70   EM%: 14.29%   UEI(333): 3058.58   UEI(250): 2296.23
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5c2 5c3 7ac 7ac 7ac 7ac 7ac 7ac 7ad 7ad 7ag 7ag 7ag 7ag 7ai 7ak 7al 7am 7am 7ao 7ao 7ap 7ap 7ba 7bu 7bu 7bu 7bu 7bu 7bu 8pn

Vamp bow (Half Bloods) by Calindu, testing by Pyrodinium
W: 28   L: 22   W%: 56.00%   TTW: 10.96   EM: 4/28   EM%: 14.20%   UEI(333): 2333.46   UEI(250): 1751.84
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6u2 6u2 6u2 6u2 6u3 6u3 6u3 6u3 6u3 6u3 6ve 6ve 6ve 6ve 6ve 715 77f 7an 7an 7do 7gm 7jr 7q1 7q1 7td 7td 7td 7td 7td 80b 8pt

« Last Edit: February 12, 2014, 04:19:36 pm by ColorlessGreen »

Offline treebeard xiii

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Re: AI4/Halfblood Stats Thread [1.321] - Decks and Spin Chance https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=50033.msg1082494#msg1082494
« Reply #2 on: June 24, 2013, 01:15:10 pm »
I think i'll help you out cg here i have just tested a fully upped hb killer and have some pretty stats for you :)

The Grand Wyrm by treebeard xiii, testing by treebeard xiii
wins=54 Losses=46  win%=54 TTW= 6.5
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6u2 6u2 6u2 6u3 6u3 6u3 6u3 6u3 6u3 6ve 6ve 6ve 6ve 6ve 6ve 6ve 7jv 7jv 7jv 7mu 7mu 7mu 7mu 7mu 7nq 7nq 7nq 816 816 816 8pr


I will finish of a 100 game stint later to properly clarify the winrate. I would appreciate someone else running a smaller test because i believe this deck should be nearer 75% winrate but at least half the losses were due to hbs drawing the perfect first hand and only a few were due to me fail drawing.

for your spin stats out of 54 wins i got 12 unupped cards and 2 upped cards.
« Last Edit: July 08, 2013, 08:11:33 pm by treebeard xiii »
love makin my decks unusual if able. Chaos and luck are widely regarded as different i beg to differ just refer to :entropy but for those in the know also refer to :time and :death.

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Offline Marsu

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Re: AI4/Halfblood Stats Thread [1.321] - Decks and Spin Chance https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=50033.msg1082515#msg1082515
« Reply #3 on: June 24, 2013, 02:05:22 pm »
Great stuff. I'll try to add the statistics for 100 wins soon, need a bit Electrum again anyway.

Offline treebeard xiii

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Re: AI4/Halfblood Stats Thread [1.321] - Decks and Spin Chance https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=50033.msg1082517#msg1082517
« Reply #4 on: June 24, 2013, 02:06:38 pm »
Great stuff. I'll try to add the statistics for 100 wins soon, need a bit Electrum again anyway.

Says the person who only yesterday was saying how i had 20K worth of codes ready for use :P
love makin my decks unusual if able. Chaos and luck are widely regarded as different i beg to differ just refer to :entropy but for those in the know also refer to :time and :death.

The nymphs of tree

Offline Fippe94

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Re: AI4/Halfblood Stats Thread [1.321] - Decks and Spin Chance https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=50033.msg1082518#msg1082518
« Reply #5 on: June 24, 2013, 02:07:05 pm »
Ok, decided to help out with this to see how profitable HBs really are.

I just won 20 matches against Half Bloods. I won 6 unupped cards and 2 upped cards.
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Offline Marsu

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Re: AI4/Halfblood Stats Thread [1.321] - Decks and Spin Chance https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=50033.msg1082530#msg1082530
« Reply #6 on: June 24, 2013, 02:46:51 pm »
@Tree: I'm giving away all codes, so... :)

I will edit this post, these are my stats:

Nymph Staffs by Marsu, tested by Marsu

W: 7   L: 3   W%: 70   EM: 4   EM %: 57   TTW: 11.43

Cards spinned after 7 wins: 1 unupped, 1 upped

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5c5 5c5 5c5 5c5 5c5 5c5 5cg 5cg 5cg 5cg 5cg 7ac 7ac 7ac 7ac 7ac 7ac 7ad 7bu 7bu 7bu 7bu 7bu 7bu 7n2 7n2 7n2 7n2 7n2 7n2 8pn


Offline ColorlessGreenTopic starter

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Re: AI4/Halfblood Stats Thread [1.321] - Decks and Spin Chance https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=50033.msg1082742#msg1082742
« Reply #7 on: June 25, 2013, 01:10:34 am »
Updated OPs with treebeard's 100 games, fippe's 20 wins, and absolutely nothing from marsu yet (due to only having 10 games so far). If any of you who posted above me edit your post with more stats, please tell me about it somehow because I probably won't notice otherwise. I also added in spin stats from 327 wins of my own. More than doubling the number of wins adjusted the stats from kev by around a couple tenths of a percent in both cases, so I'm getting even more confident that we have actual numbers for this.

Additionally, I updated the extra-profit-per-win stat with new assumptions about values of spins. Specifically, 1160 (up from 1150) is used for upped cards, as this is what FGEI assumes. Also, 62 (up from 50) is used for unupped cards, as this is what is produced if you take the extra profit per win (25.6 electrum) and divide by the chance to spin a card per win in AI3 (41.26%) as shown in Xeno's AI3 spin simulation which I linked in the OP, you get 62.05, which I just went ahead and truncated for simplicity.

All of these changes resulted in a net increase of almost exactly 5 extra electrum per win.
« Last Edit: June 25, 2013, 01:21:11 am by ColorlessGreen »

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Re: AI4/Halfblood Stats Thread [1.321] - Decks and Spin Chance https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=50033.msg1085574#msg1085574
« Reply #8 on: July 08, 2013, 07:43:04 pm »
I really like that you're organizing this CG - bravo and +rep. 

I just did a 50 game run with this super-shard immo-rush:

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7dp 7dp 7dp 7dp 7dp 7dp 7ds 7ds 7ds 7ds 7ds 7ds 7du 7du 7ee 7ee 7ee 7ee 7ee 7mt 7mt 7mt 7mt 7mt 7mt 7n9 7nq 7nq 7nq 7nq 8po


And the results were fast, and pretty good overall:

W: 40, L:10, W%:80, EM:0, TTW: 6.8
Cards won after 40 spins: 4 unupped, 2 upped
(sheesh!  that seems really bad in comparison with what other people have posted....  I guess I'm just a lucky so and so).
I'm assuming everyone else just hits the "spin all" button right?  I wonder if that makes any difference?

« Last Edit: July 08, 2013, 07:47:27 pm by trashduke »
Rainbros guild

Offline ginandtonic

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  • Friends don't let friends play shard golems
Re: AI4/Halfblood Stats Thread [1.321] - Decks and Spin Chance https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=50033.msg1085643#msg1085643
« Reply #9 on: July 09, 2013, 01:48:59 am »
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Deck import code : [Select]
4vj 4vj 4vj 4vj 6qq 6qq 6qq 6qq 6qq 6u3 6u3 6u5 71b 77f 77f 77j 77l 77l 7an 7dr 7gs 7k5 7n2 7n2 7n2 7n2 7q4 7q9 7qb 7t9 7tb 80a 8pm

This is a flying weapons deck that I played for 20 wins worth of games.  It is more of a denial/stall and, as I found out, not really suited to playing Half-Bloods.  I figured that out pretty early on but pushed on to 20 wins for the sake of the stats:

Wins: 20     Losses: 23    W/L: 46.5%    TTW: 14.4    EM: 4    EM Rate: 20%

All that for 1 Upgraded and 6 Unupgraded cards.   

So, this deck isn't your half-blood farmer, but the spins sound about right.

Offline ginandtonic

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Re: AI4/Halfblood Stats Thread [1.321] - Decks and Spin Chance https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=50033.msg1085665#msg1085665
« Reply #10 on: July 09, 2013, 04:13:35 am »
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5uo 5vi 5vi 7t4 7t4 7t8 7t9 7tb 7tb 7tc 7tc 7tc 7u2 7u2 7u2 7u2 7um 7um 80a 80a 80a 80a 80a 80d 80d 81q 81q 81q 81q 81q 81q 81q 8pt

This is my spin on UndeadSpider1990's Voidstall deck...http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,50084.0.html

What can I say, I like the stalls, even if they aren't the most efficient to grind Halfbloods.  But this deck came out with a good win percentage because the halfbloods have very little permanent control:

Wins: 20    Losses: 7  W/L: 74%    TTW: 17.35    EM: 4   EM Rate: 20%

My spins, however, pretty much put it in the not-worth-my-time category (but don't fault the deck for it!):
0 Upped and 4 Unupped cards spun in 20 wins.

Offline Pyrodinium

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Re: AI4/Halfblood Stats Thread [1.321] - Decks and Spin Chance https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=50033.msg1091690#msg1091690
« Reply #11 on: August 10, 2013, 05:32:06 am »
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6u2 6u2 6u2 6u2 6u3 6u3 6u3 6u3 6u3 6u3 6ve 6ve 6ve 6ve 6ve 715 77f 7an 7an 7do 7gm 7jr 7q1 7q1 7td 7td 7td 7td 7td 80b 8pt


Deck: Vamp bow[Half-bloods] http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php/topic,35720.msg1091689.html#msg1091689
Creator: Calindu http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?action=profile;u=42

Games played: 50
Wins: 28
Loss: 22
Win/Loss Ratio: 56%
TTW: 10.96
EM: 4/28
EM %: 14.20%

 

blarg: kev,Xenocidius,ColorlessGreen,Hazardus10,Essence,Ascabi44,dark ripper,Leodip,TribalTrouble,Blutrabe,trashduke,RulacMage11,Higurashi,Mythrilvael,Silux,Pyrodinium,treebeard xiii,Pvt_14,Calindu,Marsu