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Offline XenocidiusTopic starter

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Re: Elements Slot Machine Simulator http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=31106.msg399422#msg399422
« Reply #12 on: September 25, 2011, 11:57:12 pm »
Ah, thanks for that. Crusader and Condor should now be registered by the database.

And well done with the droprate table. I somewhat neglect droprate, instead preferring number of cards won per game, but it seems they are not the same; Decay is much lower on the scale of cards per game.
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Offline Jangoo

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Re: Elements Slot Machine Simulator http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=31106.msg400990#msg400990
« Reply #13 on: September 29, 2011, 06:41:54 am »
=O You used my nickname for the "XenoSim"! =D

Just out of curiosity, I took a list of the card droprates of all the False Gods then ranked them from highest droprate to lowest -- plus most-won card, just because. 10,000 runs for all of them.

False GodCard DroprateMost Won Card
Divine Glory48.76Morning Glory
Decay45.50Fractal
Octane44.29Unstable Gas
Jezebel43.33Nymph's Tears
Akebono42.82Massive Dragon
Eternal Phoenix41.83Minor Phoenix
Osiris41.50Pharaoh
Hecate41.40Voodoo Doll
Fire Queen40.16Feral Bond
Gemini39.14Twin Universe
Serket38.41Deathstalker
Incarnate37.91Vampire
Obliterator37.86Elite Shrieker
Graviton37.23Graviton Firemaster
Paradox36.70Improved Blessing/Elite Deja Vu (tie)
Lionheart36.69Crusader
Neptune36.47Shockwave
Destiny35.66Fate Egg
Ferox35.39Ray of Light
Seism33.57Elite Graboid
Dark Matter33.23Black Hole
Chaos Lord32.58Supernova/Ray of Light (tie)
Morte31.97Retrovirus
Hermes31.28Lava Destroyer
Elidnis30.91Forest Spectre
Dream Catcher30.88Supernova
Miracle30.49Elite Queen
Scorpio30.26Pufferfish
Rainbow29.58Electrum Hourglass
A few things:
  • 10k runs still isn't the most accurate, so take these with a grain of salt, but only a grain. Running multiple tests on the same False God, for example, gave a max of 1 percent difference either way, so these can be taken to be pretty accurate.
  • Matches up with experience as well. For example any long-time veteran FG farmer can tell you Divine Glory and Decay have the best droprates, whereas Rainbow is the clear loser of the bunch (as if anyone needed another reason to skip him).
  • Most won cards shouldn't be seen as anything other than a ballpark. While some (Pharaoh for Osiris and Graviton Firemaster for Graviton) were pretty obvious -- both approached 50% out of the cards won -- others, like Supernova for Dream Catcher, were pretty close to the "second place" cards and could will be different for new tests.
  • I found two more cards that the XenoSim registers as "undefined" -- Crusader and Condor.
The numbers don't match DarkWeavers calculations which have been verified by empirical testing in over 13k games (against all gods that is):

FGDarkWeaverMerged studiesSample size
Akebono
Chaos Lord
Dark Matter
Decay
Destiny
Divine Glory
Dream Catcher
Elidnis
Eternal Phoenix
Ferox
Fire Queen
Gemini
Graviton
Hecate
Hermes
Incarnate
Jezebel
Lionheart
Miracle
Morte
Neptune
Obliterator
Octane
Osiris
Paradox
Rainbow
Scorpio
Seism
Serket
58,63%
38,68%
41,26%
61,41%
44,74%
68,00%
37,58%
37,33%
56,25%
44,43%
50,92%
49,76%
46,88%
54,71%
39,26%
48,34%
59,72%
47,36%
37,75%
37,84%
47,07%
48,15%
59,71%
57,22%
48,19%
36,10%
36,54%
41,99%
48,29%
56,86%
40,71%
38,40%
59,74%
43,54%
80,80%
34,02%
35,07%
43,42%
50,28%
51,94%
44,39%
45,88%
56,29%
30,99%
45,51%
54,13%
39,29%
37,37%
34,45%
41,14%
44,83%
54,74%
54,75%
52,16%
31,78%
37,21%
41,46%
42,92%
204
140
125
154
294
125
97
211
76
177
206
223
85
167
71
334
109
252
281
209
333
203
137
179
324
107
129
164
219
Don't match ... at all.



Offline XenocidiusTopic starter

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Re: Elements Slot Machine Simulator http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=31106.msg400991#msg400991
« Reply #14 on: September 29, 2011, 06:51:49 am »
Droprate =/= Cards won per game. You'll find if you run a few of the FG decks through the simulator that the cards won per game will match up almost perfectly with Dark Weaver's stats.

For example, here's Divine Glory:

Hover over cards for details, click for permalink
Deck import code : [Select]
7dg 7dg 7dg 7dm 7dm 7dm 7dm 7dm 7dm 7jo 7jo 7jo 7jo 7jo 7jo 7jo 7jo 7jo 7jo 7jo 7jo 7jo 7k1 7k1 7k1 7k1 7k1 7k1 7k2 7k2 7k2 7n2 7n2 7n2 7n2 7n2 8pq

Runs: 100000
Upgraded spin: Yes

Cards won: 67720
Cards per game: 0.677
Droprate (%): 48.658

Extra electrum won: 83085551
Extra electrum per game: 830.86

Card
Won (total)
% of all cards won
Won (per game)
Burning Tower1700.250.002
Explosion2182032.220.218
Light Tower10821.600.011
Morning Glory2234933.000.223
Improved Miracle65479.670.065
Animate Weapon1575223.260.158
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Offline Jangoo

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Re: Elements Slot Machine Simulator http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=31106.msg401120#msg401120
« Reply #15 on: September 29, 2011, 02:16:00 pm »


So, what is droprate?

 

Offline XenocidiusTopic starter

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Re: Elements Slot Machine Simulator http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=31106.msg401124#msg401124
« Reply #16 on: September 29, 2011, 02:21:34 pm »
Droprate is the percentage of games in which you win at least one card.
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Offline rosutosefi

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Re: Elements Slot Machine Simulator http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=31106.msg401132#msg401132
« Reply #17 on: September 29, 2011, 02:43:52 pm »
Droprate is the percentage of games in which you win at least one card.
Erm, no. Droprate if the number of cards won divided by the number of games won, which also includes two-card and three-card wins. Same as what Darkweaver used.
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Offline XenocidiusTopic starter

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Re: Elements Slot Machine Simulator http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=31106.msg401137#msg401137
« Reply #18 on: September 29, 2011, 02:57:40 pm »
Erm, no. Droprate if the number of cards won divided by the number of games won, which also includes two-card and three-card wins. Same as what Darkweaver used.
Well, my program calculates droprate as what I said previously, in lieu of a better word.
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Offline rosutosefi

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Re: Elements Slot Machine Simulator http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=31106.msg401145#msg401145
« Reply #19 on: September 29, 2011, 03:04:53 pm »
Erm, no. Droprate if the number of cards won divided by the number of games won, which also includes two-card and three-card wins. Same as what Darkweaver used.
Well, my program calculates droprate as what I said previously, in lieu of a better word.
But that means the probability of winning exactly 2 cards is multiplied by 2, and the probability of winning 3 is multiplied by 3. These are then added to the probability of winning exactly 1, so it's not the probability of winning at least one card. :)
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Offline XenocidiusTopic starter

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Re: Elements Slot Machine Simulator http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=31106.msg401148#msg401148
« Reply #20 on: September 29, 2011, 03:12:58 pm »
Pardon?

If you're suggesting the simulator calculates chance to win at least 1 card wrongly, then you would be mistaken.

Why: It checks each time to see whether it has won at least one card and if so adds to the variable containing that. I highly doubt it is wrong.
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Offline rosutosefi

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Re: Elements Slot Machine Simulator http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=31106.msg401558#msg401558
« Reply #21 on: September 30, 2011, 11:37:36 am »
But it checks once every spin, for 3 spins, so if it wins 3 cards from a game then it adds three to the counter. It does not only calculate the chance of winning at least a card from the game, but it also takes into consideration the weight of two-card wins and three-card wins. So it's not "at least one card".

But this statistic is more useful, so meh, no point in arguing about it.  :))
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Offline XenocidiusTopic starter

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Re: Elements Slot Machine Simulator http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=31106.msg401570#msg401570
« Reply #22 on: September 30, 2011, 12:16:56 pm »
Here's how it works:

Repeat 3 times:
*blah blah*
if a card was won, set won to true

At the end:
if won = true, drop += 1.

But anyway, Dark Weaver has informed me of a slight error in the code which makes the value of droprate somewhat inaccurate without a huge number of runs.

Since fixing it would slow it down even more, I've casually removed droprate. Enjoy the new faster speed. :)
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Offline rosutosefi

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Re: Elements Slot Machine Simulator http://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=31106.msg401574#msg401574
« Reply #23 on: September 30, 2011, 12:24:20 pm »
So it's not like your original version? I ish coonfused.  ???
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