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Offline antiaverage

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Re: Complete War Rankings https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=41374.msg1253598#msg1253598
« Reply #36 on: December 17, 2016, 02:08:38 pm »

Click on an element to highlight its trend line.
(Underworld is removed.)
« Last Edit: October 19, 2019, 04:41:02 am by antiaverage »
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Re: Complete War Rankings https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=41374.msg1253599#msg1253599
« Reply #37 on: December 17, 2016, 02:10:58 pm »
That's awesome.

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Re: Complete War Rankings https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=41374.msg1253604#msg1253604
« Reply #38 on: December 17, 2016, 02:51:36 pm »
Fire is one hell of a roller coaster, huh.
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Re: Complete War Rankings https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=41374.msg1253630#msg1253630
« Reply #39 on: December 18, 2016, 12:04:51 am »
Is the pattern for determining ranking on multi-team eliminations in a single round based on W/L then cards left? I thought it was always the other way around, was this changed and then changed for previous wars?

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Re: Complete War Rankings https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=41374.msg1253636#msg1253636
« Reply #40 on: December 18, 2016, 02:53:21 am »
Nice AA - that's pretty cool!

Is the pattern for determining ranking on multi-team eliminations in a single round based on W/L then cards left? I thought it was always the other way around, was this changed and then changed for previous wars?

I'm using the formula that Legit used, which was round eliminated, then W/L percentage. Not sure if it came up before, but this war Time and death were eliminated in the same round and had the same W/L percentage (40%) - Time had more total wins, and also more cards in vault, so by either metric they would be 8th, and death 9th place.   
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Re: Complete War Rankings https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=41374.msg1253665#msg1253665
« Reply #41 on: December 18, 2016, 09:06:05 pm »
Would be cool to somehow show who was the general at those times to see how that impacted placing. I notice for example Darkness's looping trend line and wondered who was general in their previous peaking section
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Offline antiaverage

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Re: Complete War Rankings https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=41374.msg1253783#msg1253783
« Reply #42 on: December 20, 2016, 08:49:52 am »
Would be cool to somehow show who was the general at those times to see how that impacted placing. I notice for example Darkness's looping trend line and wondered who was general in their previous peaking section

Has anyone compiled a list of Generals for all the wars?
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Re: Complete War Rankings https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=41374.msg1253785#msg1253785
« Reply #43 on: December 20, 2016, 10:26:49 am »
Would be cool to somehow show who was the general at those times to see how that impacted placing. I notice for example Darkness's looping trend line and wondered who was general in their previous peaking section

Has anyone compiled a list of Generals for all the wars?



The wiki article on War has it.
Every time a graboid evolves, an elemental gets his wings.
:gravity Guild (old), War 9 & 13 (gen) / :time Brawl 2 & 3, War 7 & 14 / :death War 8 & 12 / :fire Brawl 4 / :entropy Brawl 5 / :darkness War 10

Offline antiaverage

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Re: Complete War Rankings https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=41374.msg1253797#msg1253797
« Reply #44 on: December 20, 2016, 04:40:28 pm »
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Re: Complete War Rankings https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=41374.msg1253799#msg1253799
« Reply #45 on: December 20, 2016, 05:38:32 pm »
The wiki needs updated with the W/L tiebreaker, not the final vault tiebreaker.

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Re: Complete War Rankings https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=41374.msg1273987#msg1273987
« Reply #46 on: January 26, 2018, 08:31:52 am »
I decided to make an updated gdoc for the complete war rankings, with data on round eliminated (since that's the primary determiner of rank). Here it is: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18KKPCNUTssvsQcg8rMtCiOC1EbowaXdeF7PdUbZFGDQ/edit?usp=sharing

Now, there's one thing before we can finalize the rankings. If our metrics are Round eliminated then Winrate, then Death and Entropy are tied for 5th. Of course a tie for 5th isn't that big of a deal, but historically we've awarded distinct ranks. So we need to devise some tiebreaker.

Last war duke broke it based on either #Wins or Vault size. Both are good metrics. A team with more wins had to work harder to maintain the same winrate over many matches. Also vault size at the end is not entirely discountable: a team with 49 cards left was just a bit away from surviving another round (a stray transmute may have done it). But one at 0 cards would've needed more to survive.

Previously, we've had the same situation thrice:
Time/Gravity - War 7
Air/Death - War 8
Time/Death - War 10

In the War 10 case, both #wins and vault determine Time as winner in tiebreak. In War 8 both teams had the same W/L record, but by vault size Air wins significantly. In war 7 they also had same record and the vault sizes weren't stated clearly, but by the number of spoils after Round 8 Time was a clear winner. So the historical rankings stand by these two metrics.

But in our case, the two metrics favor different teams. So we'd have to choose one to be superior. #wins seems more objective, but do keep in mind that cards left in vault played a role in causing this debacle (Death revived because they were only a few cards below 50). So which do we choose?

At that point, I looked for a more objective tiebreaker. The best answer? RPI. Not all W/L records are created equal; some teams have faced worse opponents than others. We don't have easy stats for RPI in case of War 7, but we do have kakerstats for War 8 & 10. I added Winrates tab to War #8 (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gbh58GOlV0X8Jt4LmdddVGL8TkY0rybhBNPA9pwvqP8/edit?usp=sharing) and checked War #10 (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1u7ltro309bCjm9D18V1nzJ-N2QGSca8L1K6kbGIbfVc/edit#gid=3630884), and it's surprising. The teams that won the tiebreak above had lower RPI. Indeed, in War #8 Air had the lowest Strength of Schedule, so arguably they had the easiest time of all teams. Doesn't that mean Death deserves to win the tie over them?

Among the simple metrics, #Wins and Vault Size are both good. But I think we should resolve this by something more objective, something which accounts for how hard it was for a team to acquire their winrate. So I propose that all possible ties be broken by RPI. This would switch those historic rankings. RPI shouldn't leave many ties since it's very precise, but then we should decide which of #Wins and Vault Size is better.
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Re: Complete War Rankings https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=41374.msg1273997#msg1273997
« Reply #47 on: January 26, 2018, 02:31:32 pm »
I don't see why round eliminated, then win rate (the current tiebreaker), then final vault size (the original tiebreaker) isn't sufficient. In the rare situation you need a tiebreaker after that, I'd say number of wins, and only after that should a rating system be necessary - preferably not RPI, there are far better ranking systems available and it's not really more objective than the events that actually occurred.
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