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Offline teffy

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Re: Holy Flash https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=17604.msg227796#msg227796
« Reply #24 on: December 19, 2010, 12:46:25 am »
Healing creatures: Seldom
Killing Darkness/Death creatures: More often (possible against AI3)
The potential of this upgraded card is using it in the combination with Miracle, especially in light decks, both cards played in the same turn. This is one of the few reasons I use this card.
With higher costs, this potential is destroyed.
And mulligan ? Forget mulligan and calculate the chances for this to happen. The chance, that Holy Flash "destroys" the mulligan is even lower.

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QuantumT

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Re: Holy Flash https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=17604.msg227822#msg227822
« Reply #25 on: December 19, 2010, 01:30:55 am »
Healing creatures: Seldom
Killing Darkness/Death creatures: More often (possible against AI3)
The potential of this upgraded card is using it in the combination with Miracle, especially in light decks, both cards played in the same turn. This is one of the few reasons I use this card.
With higher costs, this potential is destroyed.
And mulligan ? Forget mulligan and calculate the chances for this to happen. The chance, that Holy Flash "destroys" the mulligan is even lower.

P.S.
Would like to read the opinion of xdude.
Give me a number of pillars and holy flashes and I'll run the numbers for you.

Assuming 30 card, 10 pillar deck with k holy flashes, the chances of holy flash ruining the mulligan are

k=1 P=.4%
k=2 P=1%
k=3 P=1.9%
k=4 P=3.2%
k=5 P=5.1%
k=6 P=7.8%

Even if the chance isn't all that high, when it happens it's almost a guaranteed loss, because these hands are all pillarless.

In comparison, the chance of a pillarless hand in a 10 pillar deck with no holy flashes is .15%. Adding even a single holy flash roughly triples the chance of a pillarless hand. Adding more just makes it worse.

Offline teffy

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Re: Holy Flash https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=17604.msg228463#msg228463
« Reply #26 on: December 19, 2010, 06:32:13 pm »
One point I forgot:
The new Luciferin costs 2 random (and 1 upped) and heals 10 HP now, too. If you want to avoid mulligan at all costs, you can use this.

Holy Flash has a combo with Miracle. Luciferin not.Not really.
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Re: Holy Flash https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=17604.msg228467#msg228467
« Reply #27 on: December 19, 2010, 06:37:22 pm »
Increasing the cost would make this card completely useless, seeing as it would be the same as luciferase but without giving creatures bioluminescence.

I don't think it causes that big of a problem with automulligan, but if its cost were to be increased, its amount of healing should be too.

Re: Holy Flash https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=17604.msg228513#msg228513
« Reply #28 on: December 19, 2010, 07:20:34 pm »
Quote
The potential of this upgraded card is using it in the combination with Miracle, especially in light decks, both cards played in the same turn. This is one of the few reasons I use this card.
With higher costs, this potential is destroyed.
Only if you run absolutely pure mono- :light.  If you run, say, pegasus rush, the :air quanta left over after Miracle will fuel Holy Flash at 1 random.

Offline xdude

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Re: Holy Flash https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=17604.msg228527#msg228527
« Reply #29 on: December 19, 2010, 07:34:54 pm »
What? The whole point of the upped card is that it's free. How would increasing the cost be a buff? Who would be stupid enough to play with only 10 Pillars in Light? The whole idea behind Light is getting out strong cards to win, while surviving with Miracles and massive quanta production. NOT 10 Pillars.
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Re: Holy Flash https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=17604.msg228561#msg228561
« Reply #30 on: December 19, 2010, 08:13:48 pm »
Yes, I wouldn't run with 10 pillars in mono- :light myself.  But with lots of pillars, a 1-cost heal shouldn't be a problem, right?  I figured the main purpose of the zero cost was to make it free to import to any other element without splashing.

QuantumT

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Re: Holy Flash https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=17604.msg228595#msg228595
« Reply #31 on: December 19, 2010, 08:47:46 pm »
I used 10 just for an example so I could run the numbers.

What funny is until you have enough pillars to guarantee drawing one, having more pillars just ups the fraction of the time that holy flash will screw with your mulligan. Here's the ratio of (pillarless hands with 1 holy flash/pillarless hands with 0 holy flash).

10 pillars-9.2
11 pillars-14.8
12 pillars-25.0
13 pillars-43.1
14 pillars-77.9

So while the overall failure rate is decreasing, the ratio of failures caused by holy flash just increases with the number of pillars.

Re: Holy Flash https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=17604.msg228622#msg228622
« Reply #32 on: December 19, 2010, 09:23:20 pm »
This is because with a fixed deck size, the more pillars you have, the less you have of everything else, and the larger the percentage of your non-pillars are Holy Flashes.

The numbers are a bit deceptive, though, since you're talking about percentages of mulligans ruined.  The number of hands that would trigger a mulligan decreases too.

QuantumT

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Re: Holy Flash https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=17604.msg228647#msg228647
« Reply #33 on: December 19, 2010, 09:44:26 pm »
This is because with a fixed deck size, the more pillars you have, the less you have of everything else, and the larger the percentage of your non-pillars are Holy Flashes.

The numbers are a bit deceptive, though, since you're talking about percentages of mulligans ruined.  The number of hands that would trigger a mulligan decreases too.
I said that in my post. But either way, I'd much rather have it cost :rainbow then have it ruin my mulligan, considering that when it does ruin my mulligan, it's almost a certain loss.

Note that those numbers were also with only 1 holy flash, it gets much worse if you add more. With 12 pillars, the ratio goes to:

2 HF - 41.1
3 HF - 51.4
4 HF - 57.5

Siweisun

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Re: Holy Flash https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=17604.msg277808#msg277808
« Reply #34 on: February 24, 2011, 06:37:50 pm »
Adding 1 quanta cost would be a nerf, not a buff.

Offline xdude

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Re: Holy Flash https://elementscommunity.org/forum/index.php?topic=17604.msg277815#msg277815
« Reply #35 on: February 24, 2011, 06:53:29 pm »
Adding 1 quanta cost would be a nerf, not a buff.
Let dead thread die please.
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